horse racing


Another of the major festivals now snuggly tucked away in the form book… and another major festival where BAAEED went about his business in the manor of the finely tuned racing machine he is…  💥😲🛫

He was simply OUTSTANDING in the Juddmonte International! Just eye-poppingly good 👀 what a performance! A performance that was backed up in no uncertain terms by the figures as well. Needless to say it was a career best from him on speed figures but even more than that… it was the single most impressive figure recorded in the International Stakes since at least 2000. Using the Proform Speed Figures as my ever reliable gauge the figure posted by BAAEED last week would have won him EVERY. SINGLE. RENEWAL of the race since 2000. BETTER than Frankel’s 2012 figure… BETTER than his dad’s win in 2009 (Sea The Stars)… it was simply an outstanding performance from the William Haggas 4yo. But again, I reiterate my call from a previous post… just let BAAEED be BAAEED… let him be his own superstar… let’s judge him on his own merits and let him shine in his own spotlight… he’s 10 from 10…the last 6 of them being Group 1’s… he’s creating his own legend status and we should damn well enjoy him while we can…horses like him don’t come around that often…

Where will he/should he go next? I’d love him to go to the Arc… naturally… it would be great to see him rock up in what is probably the biggest race on the entire flat racing calendar… but equally I’m not going to be disappointed if he doesn’t, I’ll just enjoy him wherever he goes… he’s the superstar of HIS time and bloody hell is he some horse!!

Once again BAAEED won’t be making my NTF Notebook… but here are the eight runners from last week’s action that did make my notebook…



Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursATALIS BAY

2nd of 22, 5.5f Sky Bet Symphony Group Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 17th August

Robert Cowell hadn’t quite found the key to this 4yo since he moved to his yard from the Botti yard in the off season, but this was more like it and I’d be hopeful of him finding a winning opportunity with this run in the bank and the yard showing a bit more form (they had been a little quiet prior to this).

August-September have been hot months for ATALIS BAY as well, with 3 wins and 2 placed efforts from his 6 starts during these months and he’s worth looking out for under the following…

Listed level & below | Aug-Sept = 33111 (3/5, 2p)


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursNOMADIC EMPIRE

4th of 22, 5.5f Sky Bet Symphony Group Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 17th August

I was very keen on this 4yo pre-race and I thought he ran a massive race despite probably being inconvenienced by the draw and also getting a slower than ideal start (although that may have been by design so jockey Jason Watson could switch him to the far side and the quicker ground). 4 of the first 6 home were drawn in the bottom half (stalls 11 or below) so this 1.7L 4th deserves a decent markup given he broke from stall 15 (King of Stars breaking from stall 22 and finishing a short-head second also deserves huge credit for his run).

NOMADIC EMPIRE is now in his prime months…

Aug-Oct form = 441170262431 (3/12, 5p)

Apr-July form = 0045030922423 (0/13, 4p)

…and I want to be looking out for him under the following Prime Conditions…

Aug-Oct | Good to Soft or quicker | Straight tracks = 441170221 (3/9, 4p – all 3 career wins)

There’s also a couple of David O’Meara’s angles that catch my eye, which this lad should fit when he next runs…

O’Meara horses that ran at the Ebor meeting are often worth keeping in mind when they next run, especially under the following…

D O’Meara | Ran at Ebor meeting LTO | 5f-1m Turf races | 2yo-7yo | Ridden by D Tudhope | SP 20/1 or less = 10/32 | 31% S/R | +£67.55 BFLSP – W&P 16/32 | 50% S/R – 69% above exp

…so Danny Tudhope getting back in the plate next time out would definitely be interesting…

NOMADIC EMPIRE also wore a first time visor at York and whilst O’Meara horses have a decent record wearer that headgear for the first time, they also have a decent record when wearing it for the second time…

D O’Meara | Horses wearing a visor for the second time | Turf races | 2yo-6yo | DIDN’T WIN LTO | SP 10-1 or less = 10/31 | 32% S/R | +£35.88 BFLSP – W&P 16/31 | 52% S/R

…as always with such angles I’d be flexible enough on the SP filter.


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursZOFFEE

3rd of 12, 2m0.5f Sky Bet Stayers Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 17th August

Hugo Palmer’s 6yo didn’t get the clearest of passages in this staying handicap, meeting some minor traffic issues 2f out and then being hampered again 1f out, possibly finding his low draw to be detrimental to his chances here, the first and second were both drawn wider and were able to make their challenges down the outside, ZOFFEE had to try and thread his way through the more congested far side.

He’s a horse that has been in fine form this season and although he may not have managed to trouble the front two here even with a clear run I do think he would have finished plenty closer and the effort is definitely worth a markup.

I’ll be looking out for him under the following…

Turf/AW 1m3f-2m1f handicaps | Good to Soft or quicker (or AW) | DSLR 45 or less = 3311212 (3/7, 4p – all 3 turf-AW wins) *I’d be flexible enough on the upper end of his stamina limit, although I wouldn’t want him going too far past 2m1f

Hugo Palmer is another who’s runners have produced some eye-catching stats off the back of running at the Ebor Festival…

H Palmer | Sept-Dec | Ran at Ebor meeting LTO | DIDN’T WIN and beaten between 1 to 15L  = 9/20 | 45% S/R | +£32.60 BFLSP – W&P 13/20 | 65% S/R

…if they start at SP 5/1 or less next time they improve to… 8/11, 2p (21114113111)


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursTYRRHENIAN SEA

3rd of 18, 1m Clipper Logistics Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 18th August

Was on the cusp of a tricky draw in stall 14 and being that the two that finished ahead of him were drawn lower than him the draw maybe just stopped the unexposed 4yo getting closer than he did. This was still, however, a big run from the son of Dark Angel, in a race that was run someway above par (based on the Proform Speed Class par figures).

The form of his close second behind Living Legend at Newcastle earlier in the season suggests he’s still on a decent mark at present (he ran here off OR 105) and I’d still be hopeful of Roger Varian getting a win into him before seasons end, a small step up in trip from this 1m trip would maybe also be an interesting move,

Varian is another trainer who it can pay to follow when it comes to his runners that ran at the Ebor meeting, especially under the following…

R varian | Top 7 finish at Ebor meeting LTO | Turf races (not Maiden or Novice contests) | 2yo-5yo’s  = 9/29 | 31% S/R | +£38.73 BFLSP – W&P 14/29 | 48% S/R


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursNORTHERN EXPRESS

7th of 18, 1m Clipper Logistics Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 18th August

I’m not overly convinced that 1m trips are what this one wants as he is now 0/4, 1p over such trips (compared to 4/15, 5p over shorter trips).

The form of his 3 races prior to this (Ascot & York X2) have all been working out well and I suspect his current mark of OR 95 is within range for him and he’s worth looking out for under the following…

June-Sept | 7f-7.5f | fields of 9+ = 411151 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)

…Paul Mulrennan on top would be a positive also as he is 4 from 4 on the horse under the above Prime Conditions.


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursAMANZOE

2nd of 10, 1m2.5f Fillies Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 19th August

This William Haggas 3yo came in off the back of 3 straight victories and although she found one too hot for her in the shape of the Ralph Beckett trained State Occasion she still comes out of this with plenty credit, with 4.5L+ back to the remainder of the field and a big career best on the speed figures being posted. The winner came into this in bouncing form herself and also had a better racing position throughout this contest and again there was no shame in coming second for the haggis filly.

I like following Haggas 3yo’s off the back of running at the Ebor meeting as they’ve produced some strong figures (since 2014)…

W Haggas | Ran over 1m-1m6f at Ebor meeting LTO | 3yo’s | SP 7/1 or less  = 9/17 | 53% S/R | +£23.14 BFLSP – W&P 12/17 | 71% S/R

…and there should still be more to come from AMANZOE before seasons end…especially when you consider the recent record of Haggas with his 3yo’s handicap fillies at the back end of the season…

(Since 2016) W Haggas | 3yo fillies in C2 Handicaps | Sept-Oct | SP 9/1 or less = 10/21 | 48% S/R | +£23.15 BFLSP – W&P 15/21 | 71% S/R


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursAL NAFIR

5th of 13, 1m6f Melrose Handicap, Class 2 (3yo), 20th August

SOULCOMBE ripped this field apart for the Willie Haggis/Hollie Doyle combo, which was great to see for my Notebook Posts as he was highlighted after his 4th placed finish at Goodwood, along with a Haggas angle that he was likely to fit next time out. He did fit that angle here and he secured the win in blistering fashion…I hope some of you were on…

He posted a Proform Speed Figure a good way above par in victory but it’s worth noting that the 2nd-5th also posted a figure either on or above par for the level and this does look a strong renewal. Charlie Appleby sent his AL NAFIR here for his handicap debut and he ran a solid race in defeat and he should have plenty still to offer from on or around his current mark of OR 92.

He’s by Dubawi and the stats suggest that big field C1/C2 York Handicaps are not always their ideal cup of tea…

Dubawi offspring | York C1/C2 handicaps | Fields of 10+ = 3/83 | 3.5% S/R | -£52.68 BFLSP – W&P 14/83 | 17% S/R – 65% below exp

…stats that drop to 0/50, 6p when they’ve had 0-3 starts in current season…like AL NAFIR…so I’d be inclined to mark his effort up a little with those sire stats in mind.

Charlie Appleby is yet another trainer who it is worth keeping an eye on with his runners that ran at the Ebor meeting last time out, particularly under the following…

C Appleby | Ran at Ebor meeting LTO, did NOT win and started at an SP of less than 9/1 | Good to Soft or quicker (or AW)  = 7/12 | 58% S/R | +£22.74 BFLSP – W&P 8/12 | 67% S/R

…which should be stats this 3yo will fit next time out…


Horse Profile - Jockey ColoursCOCKALORUM

8th of 12, 1m2.5f Sky Bet Finale Handicap, Class 2 (3yo+), 20th August

Roger Fell’s 7yo often runs well at this Class level without winning (he is 0/17, 3p at C2 level+) and the same can be said for him at York, where again he generally runs well without winning (0/11, 4p at York). The figures suggest this was a particularly hot renewal of this race, with the winner running a good way above par for the class level and advertising his well-handicapped nature in the process, and as such I suspect COCKALORUM found this task even trickier than usual. He was far from disgraced, however, and he himself posted a solid figure in defeat and he’s very much on a mark he’s capable of winning off (ran here from OR 87)… I’ll be looking out for him under the following Prime Conditions…

C3 or below | OR 91 or less | 1m1f-1m2f | Apr-Oct | NOT seasonal debut = 111321541 (5/9, 3p – all 5 career wins)

…so a small drop in class won’t go amiss…


Cheers – Ben (NTF)

p.s. I noticed the guys at GeeGeez are offering a superb (and very generous) £1 30-day trial for their Gold membership. GeeGeez is one of the other database I also make use of in my day to day betting/analysis/data digging, comes highly recommended from myself and if you ever wanted to give it a spin the you should definitely take advantage of the £1 offer…

>>>Trial GeeGeez Gold for £1 for the next 30-days

A great offer, give it a spin 👍

I’ll be back later on this week as I kick my ‘How did THAT win/How did that NOT win?’ posts back into action…


    • Hi Malc

      Impossible to keep track of that as I have notes on hundreds if not 1000’s of horses and their Prime Conditions/probable Prime Conditions… sometimes I don’t always play them (may have just missed them, maybe conditions changed throughout the day, maybe I thought they had a poor draw… any number of reasons…) and even when I highlight Prime Condition horses to my members in the stats sheets all members are not playing every horse… so not really something I can accurately answer I’m afraid…

      A horse could have Prime Conditions but have a terrible draw… so I wouldn’t play it… so Prime Conditions, although a VERY strong pointer for any horse, do still need to be mixed in with other types of analysis (where and when applicable).

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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