With a week to go until the five day Royal Ascot extravaganza I’ve naturally started to get my ducks in line as I begin to pull together the races I’ll be covering for full NTF members.
That basically means I’m deep in trends and stats territory, looking for that vital edge that will help me isolate those runners with trends superiority over their competitors as well as those that look to be up against it on the trends front.
The upshot of that for the free blog is the fact I’m able to share an overall trends view for the meeting with you guys (as opposed to the in-depth race specific approach I exhaustively utilise behind the full members door).
Royal Ascot can be a serious minefield at times, especially when you are trying to sort the wheat from the chaff in those large field (nay gigantic field!!) handicaps, but the trends do give a fantastic starting point to help you ‘narrow the field’ and do also, to a certain extent, ease the mind-busting puzzle that Royal Ascot provides.
The following trends and stats, although probably only really scratching the surface of the five day meet, should help you with your own personal punting and analysis of Royal Ascot 2019…
Royal Ascot Trends and Stats: 2013 – 2018
28/183 | 15% S/R | +£75.75 BFLSP – Win & Place 74/183 | 40% S/R
No surprise in the slightest to see the Ballydoyle master on this list but the fact his P&L figures are on the positive side shouldn’t be ignored. Backing him blind over the last six years would have seen you dig out a healthy profit, albeit that would not have been a profitable route every season.
To be fair finding an angle that would provide consistent profit at Royal Ascot year upon year from O’Brien is no easy thing, although the following angle almost achieves that and does tighten things up plenty…
AP O’Brien | Royal Ascot | 6f+ Non-Handicaps | Won 1 of last 3 starts | 1-11 previous career starts | 0-2 starts in current season
18/60 | 30% S/R | +£103.05 BFLSP – Win & Place 34/60 | 57% S/R
O’Brien WILL have winners, that goes without saying. You just have to be clever in how you play the Ballydoyle masses…
SIR MICHAEL STOUTE
14/89 | 16% S/R | +£24.29 BFLSP – Win & Place 33/89 | 37% S/R
Stoute has been training Royal Ascot winners for longer than I’ve been alive! (Fact!). Given his six year stats at the meeting I suspect he’ll be training winners at the meeting for many years to come yet.
He’s another you could have backed blind and profited from but, as always, I like to dig a bit deeper to tighten up those stats…
M Stoute | Royal Ascot | Non-Handicaps | Aged 3yo or 4yo | Not up more than 3 class levels from last start
11/40 | 28% S/R | +£50.63 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/40 | 53% S/R
That’s a pretty robust angle and a solid starting point for any Stoute punts you may be looking to have.
0/71 | 0% S/R | -£71.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/71 | 20% S/R
Oof! That’s a miserable recent run of Royal Ascot results for Haggas. It won’t go on indefinitely (you’d hope!) but it’s a concern for sure…
1/65 | 1.5% S/R | -£45.95 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/65 | 15% S/R
Just the one solitary winner for Varian from 65 pokes doesn’t make for great reading. His overall Royal Ascot figures don’t improve much either – 2/79.
1/51 | 2% S/R | -£23.40 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/51 | 10% S/R
Channon used to have his fair share of Royal Ascot winners but they’ve dried up a little in recent years, with the Win & Place figures not really helping matters either.
Negative trainer trends are not always as black and white as they seem but I felt these were so strong (on the negative side) I simply had to highlight them.
Royal Ascot Group 1 Race Pointers
There have been 46 Group 1 contests at the last six Royal Ascot fixtures
Only one horse priced 22-1 or higher has won
Horses priced 22-1+ have returned the following…
1/222 | 0.5% S/R | -£164.95 BFLSP – Win & Place 13/22 | 6% S/R
NO horse priced 40-1+ has won
Horses priced 40-1+ have returned the following…
0/123 | 0% S/R | -£123.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/123 | 4% S/R
As tempting as it is to go for something at a lofty price the Group 1 Royal Ascot races has not been the place to make such plays in recent years.
46/46 were rated OR 107+
Horses rated 106 returned the following… 0/108, 6p… and it pays to stick with those in the 107+ ratings band.
43/46 had won one of their last three starts
Recent winning form is a major bonus when running in a Royal Ascot Group 1.
43/46 ran in a Group race last time out
Stepping into a Royal Ascot Group 1 from Listed level or below has been a tough assignment in recent seasons.
Did you manage to grab your own personal copy of the latest FREE NTF Guides?
NTF Unexposed Handicappers [Flat]
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If you don’t yet have your own copy of those FREE guides then head to the following page…
Royal Ascot 2yo’s Pointers
There have been 36 2yo races at the last six Royal Ascot meetings
8/42 | 19% S/R | +£59.11 BFLSP – Win & Place 19/42 | 45% S/R
Again, no surprise to see O’Brien being the trainer with the most 2yo winners (only Wesley Ward comes close with 5 wins from 31) and although he drew a blank last term you’d still rather be with him than against him in these races.
0/26 | 0% S/R | -£26.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/26 | 19% S/R
On the flip side to O’Brien is Fahey, who is actually only 1/46 with his 2yo’s since the 2003 Royal Ascot meeting. Again the negative stats are not necessarily something I’d live or die by but the fact Fahey is generally strong with his 2yo’s elsewhere just makes me sit up and take notice…
Other 2yo stats…
Only one horse priced 22-1 or higher has won a 2yo Royal Ascot race
Horses priced 22-1+ have returned the following…
1/324 | 0.5% S/R | -£291.84 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/324 | 3.5% S/R
NO horse priced 28-1 or higher has won a Royal Ascot 2yo race
Horses priced 28-1+ have returned the following…
0/271 | 0% S/R | -£271.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/271 | 2% S/R
Despite the 2yo Royal Ascot races being filled with relatively unknown form-lines and untapped potential it’s not an area to be looking for a huge priced monster surprise individual to fire in a shock result. In general the really highly priced youngster even fail to find the places…
Royal Ascot Handicap Pointers
There have been 49 Handicap contests at the last six Royal Ascot meetings
Straight track handicaps…
5/24 | 21% S/R | +£84.70 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/24 | 46% S/R
On it’s own those are pretty noteworthy stats, especially the 46% Win & Place S/R.
Consider the following little tweak, however…
Jamie Spencer | Royal Ascot straight track handicaps | 6 or less career starts
4/10 | 40% S/R | +£81.93 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/10 | 80% S/R
Returning a form line of…
Limited figures, naturally, but impressive nevertheless and when Spencer is booked for a straight track handicap on a horse that is lightly raced, you should definitely be taking a closer look.
It’s actually well worth looking at his overall Royal Ascot figures to highlight just how much better he is on the straight track compared to the round course…
Straight track – 6/63 | 9.5% S/R – 32% above expectation
Round course – 2/42 | 4% S/R – 49% below expectation
Due to the competitive nature of the straight track races the S/R’s are never going to be high but the figures Spencer has produced in recent Royal Ascot’s is nothing short of spectacular.
He’s the winning-most jockey at recent Royal Ascot meetings (overall and in handicaps) and the following angle is a good one to keep in mind when he’s jocked up on a handicapper…
Ryan Moore | Royal Ascot 1m+ Handicaps | Same or dropping in trip from last start | Same or dropping in class from last start
7/20 | 35% S/R | +£46.41 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/20 | 55% S/R
Rate or hate, love or loathe (and both jockeys do seem to split opinion these days) both jockeys mentioned above do excel in the minefields that are the Royal Ascot handicaps, particularly under the highlighted conditions.
Other Handicap stats…
Horses with four or more starts in current season have a poor record…
1/110 | 1% S/R | -£93.23 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/110 | 13% S/R
Horses that have already been to the well multiple times prior to Royal Ascot struggle to hit the mark.
No horse with an SP of 40-1 or higher has won a Royal Ascot handicap in recent seasons…
0/204 | 0% S/R | -£204.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/204 | 5% S/R
Indeed those figures tell us precious few have even managed to place.
Royal Ascot Race Specific Trends
Queen Anne Stakes: 15/15 were aged 4yo or 5yo
Wolferton Stakes: 15/15 were UK or IRE bred
Prince of Wales’s Stakes: 15/15 were rated OR 117+
Royal Hunt Cup: 15/15 were rated OR 93 – 115
Ascot Gold Cup: 15/15 no more than 17 career starts
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes: 15/15 were aged 4yo or 5yo
Hardwicke Stakes: 15/15 had previously won at Group level
Wokingham Stakes: 14/15 had no more than 16 Handicap starts
*Full race trends analysis will be available in the NTF Members Area, the above is only a tiny portion (extremely minuscule portion in fact!) of the race trends full members will have at their disposal next week.
Royal Ascot remains one of the trickiest meetings of the year to dig out a profit but hopefully the above trends and stats give you a way in to start ‘Narrowing the Field’ during the five day extravaganza.
If you would like more of the same and full access to all of the NTF Royal Ascot analysis then doors to the full NTF service are still open.
I may be offering up a Royal Ascot only service although the full service remains by far the best value option.
Best of luck however you plan on attacking the five day meeting.
…and if you don’t have those FREE NTF guides I was talking about earlier then don’t wait any longer, pick them up HERE.