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Newbury MansionBet Spring Cup Trends…

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Spring Cup Handicap Trends – 3.15 Newbury

A busy day under both codes on Saturday so I won’t hang about…

The Spring Cup isn’t a race I usually get too deeply involved in but the trends have found us the winner here on the free blog for the last couple of seasons, so I’ve had a dig into the trends once again for the 2019 renewal and whittled the 27 strong field down to a workable shortlist, starting with the following five race trends…

1             15/15 OR 100 or less

2             15/15 26 or less (UK) Career starts

3             15/15 1-4 previous (UK) wins

4             15/15 no more than 3 (UK) Hcp wins

5             15/15 yet to win above C2 level

That’s chops off a fair swathe of the field and leaves the following eleven…

RED STARLIGHT – RIPP ORF – HUMBERT – EXEC CHEF – IBRAZ – GEORGE OF HEARTS – WAFY – BORODIN – HISTORY WRITER – GREENSIDE – BUBBLE AND SQUEAK

I’ll try and whittle that bunch down further using the following…

6             15/15 wore No headgear or Tongue-Tie

7             15/15 top 4 finish 1 of last 3 starts

That only knocks out two of the remaining eleven (HUMBERT & HISTORY WRITER) so lets fire up a few more trends to try and find a workable shortlist…

8             15/15 at least 2lbs higher than their last win

9             14/15 ran at C2 or C3 level LTO (UK start)

10           14/15 aged 4yo-5yo

11           14/15 no more than 2lb higher or lower than their last start

…which leaves us with a solid and manageable shortlist of…

RIPP ORF (D Elsworth)

IBRAZ (R Varian)

GEORGE OF HEARTS (R Hughes)

WAFY (C Hills)

BORODIN (R Fahey)

Before I dig any further into that shortlist here’s how I see the pace working out…

2019 Newbury Spring Cup Pace

A distinct lack of pace here for a large field straight track handicap blast!

Where the pace comes from is a bit of  guessing game pre-race although on balance there does seem to be a shade more hold-up horses drawn high than low and that may just about swing a pace advantage to those drawn in the bottom half.

Hard to be in any way confident about that, however.

Conclusion

Generally a race where it’s wise to cover a few bases and the three I’m settling on are…

BORODIN (R Fahey) – Fahey knows how to target this race, having won 3 of the last 10 renewals, and this 4yo fits a similar profile to those winners (all 3 winners were…aged 4yo-6yo, OR 95-86 and had 1-2 previous handicap wins…a profile that Borodin as fits). He’s proven on ground with cut, has form in a large field, is still very much unexposed after only 7 starts and he also enters this season on the very workable mark of OR 91, with a line through the now 97 rated Blue Mist (who he beat at Thirsk last September) one of a couple pointers hinting that there is more to come from this son of High Chaparral.

RIPP ORF (D Elsworth) – Been knocking on the door in plenty big field handicaps in the past 12 months and although they’ve mostly been over 7f his form over 1m (2-2-1-2-5) suggests he’s more than capable of delivering at this trip as well. Big fields hold no fear for him (1-3-1-2-9-5 in 15+ runner fields) and under the following conditions…March-Sept | 7+ runner fields | DSLR 60 or less…he holds a form line of 41321921221 (4/11, 5p – all 5 career wins).

GEORGE OF HEARTS (R Hughes) – You feel there’s a decent horse in there once the penny drops and with a wind surgery and a bit of a snip snip of the nether regions in the off season hopefully he can put it all together with a big run here.

Best of luck if you are getting involved in this year’s Spring Cup, it looks the standard open affair, with plenty you can make a chance for, but hopefully something from the shortlist gets the job done.

Ben (NTF)

p.s. I’ll be opening the doors to the 2019 NTF flat service in a couple of weeks so make sure you are on the free list so you don’t miss out on the build up for the summer action (free guides, analysis, membership sign-up options…)

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7 responses to “Newbury MansionBet Spring Cup Trends…”

  1. Hi Ben
    Wouldn’t want a runner drawn on the wings, apprentice ridden or of the fairer sex.
    Ripp Orf is a solid pick and The Lincoln form works well in this.
    David

    • Hi David

      Not been many females run in the race in fairness, or ones that have gone into the race with a fantastic chance, in recent years but those that have lined up have struggled (0/14, 2p).

      Bottom quarter of draw have struggled a shade in past 15 renewals so Borodin does have to overcome that (albeit that is factored into his price).

      Though race to pick apart for sure but hopefully Ripp Orf runs his usual solid race…

      Ben (NTF)

    • Hi Alan

      Plenty seems to be made about Ripp Orf being better over 7f than 1m but his 5th in the Lincoln last time out was his third best run of his career on the figures and given he generally improves for a run I’d be hopefully of another big run here today.

      Best of luck with Gulf Of Poets. I’d be concerned by his 0/5, 0p record in fields of 16+ and his 0/4, 0p record in straight track contests but he is 5/6 in April so he does seem to be at his peak during this month.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  2. Tend to agree, plus he seems to save his best for Ascot. I’m backing Red Starlight,gave hot fav a run for his money in a listed race (first two clear)

    • Hi Dan

      Ascot probably Ripp Orf’s peak track, yeas, but he can certainly run to a decent level elsewhere.

      Best of luck with Red Starlight, certainly been well-backed this morning/overnight…

      Ben (NTF)

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