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Dress to impress at Lingfield?

Back on the All-Weather train today, with sand expert David Punshon heading to Lingfield to put the Class 2 Handicap (2.00pm) under his All-Weather microscope…


THURSDAY 2:00 LINGFIELD AW 7f CLASS 2 (0 TO 105) HANDICAP

POSSIBLE EARLY SPEED RUNNERS (LIKELY TO RUN IN THE FIRST WAVE)

  • Stall 4 – HIGHLAND DRESS won a Class 3 Conditions Event over CD when last seen in November 2020 beating 103 and 109 rated rivals off level weights. He led for the first furlong or so before being headed and tracked the speed until making his move well inside of the final furlong. He returns from a 61-day break but has won on turf when returning from 87 days off the track. On his only other run at this track he finished just over 2½L fourth of 12 in a Listed Event finishing behind the 109 rated Good Effort and the 105 Rated On The Warpath who has since won a Class 2 Conditions Event. Tinto was 2L further back in seventh and only receives 1lb here.

SPEED TRACKERS (LIKELY SECOND WAVE RUNNERS)

  • Stall 2 – GHAITH generally tracks the speed but has led over this trip in the past. He does need to prove he is effective here and outside of Class 4 Company as he is yet to even manage a place in 4 attempts. The yard remains in very good form with 3 winners and 3 places within the last 9 days from only 9 runners.

MIDFIELD RUNNERS (LIKELY TO RUN IN THE THIRD WAVE)

  • Stall 6 – GULLIVER has won over CD but not since November 2017. He generally races midfield to rear, I would be concerned about the fact that the O’Meara yard are 0 from 34 in the last 30 days.
  • Stall 8 – REVOLUTIONISE won over this trip at Chelmsford 10 days ago when restrained in mid-field before making smooth headway to chase the leaders over 2f out, having to be ridden on the outside over 1f out, he led entering final furlong and quickened clear to win by 2L. Tadleel was just over 5¼L behind in fourth and is only 3lbs better off. The yard remains in good form.

HELD UP OR UNPREDICTABLE RUNNERS

  • Stall 1 – KEYSER SOZE is a 2 times CD winner who returned last time out over the straight 7f at Newcastle after 112 days off the track. He has raced towards the rear for all 4 career wins and is 2 from 3 over CD and is yet to finish out of the placings beating 95% of his rivals or 90% RB². Now back down to his last winning mark with the first time cheek-pieces. Hollie Doyle takes the ride and the Jockey/Trainer combination were 6 from22 last year on the AW.
  • Stall 3 – TADLEEL doesn’t look to have a preferred run style but is another that does need to prove he is effective here and outside of Class 4 Company.
  • Stall 5 – TINTO is 1 from 11 on the AW and that was way back in his Nursery days. He races over 7f for the first time and looks likely to race towards the rear. The yard would appear to have hit a little bit of form.
  • Stall 6 – SIR MAXIMILIAN is 1 from 14 on the AW and that was way back in 2014. He finished 1¼L sixth of 9 over CD in October 2020 off a 3lbs higher mark.

EARLY PACE THOUGHTS – LIKELY UNCONTESTED

Highland Dress from stall 4 looks the most likely to go forward with the fastest recent early sectional averages but he was happy to drop back and take a lead from a known front-runner last time out over CD.

Ghaith from stall 1 has a similar profile in that he can lead but is just as happy to take a lead. He doesn’t have the early sectional averages of Highland Dress but does have the benefit of a slow runner on his inside so should be able to get the rail early.

Apart from possibly Tadeel who is unpredictable, the rest of the field generally like to race mid-field to rear, so stalls 4 and 1 should get the lead to themselves.

FINAL PACE THOUGHTS

Although Keyser Soze has the best recent overall Final Pace Rating that was produced over the straight 7f at Newcastle.

Highland Reel is very interesting in that, even though he tracked the speed to win over CD running a quicker than par early sectional average he still managed to run a closing sectional average of 11.09 sec/fur, which equates to a Final Pace Rating of 81.61. He is consistently quick on his closing sectional averages with his last 6 runs all being quicker than the corresponding CD Par.

Gulliver is another runner that has recently run consistently quick closing sectional averages with an 83.02 Final Pace Rating over 7f at Wolverhampton on his penultimate start.

Revolutionise may not have the quickest closing sectional averages but he did run the best Last Time Out Pace Rating of 81.95 over this trip at Chelmsford.

RACE THOUGHTS

Highland Dress has some very strong CD form. He won Class 3 Conditions Event over CD when last seen in November 2020, beating 103 and 109 rated rivals off level weights. On his only other run at this track he finished just over 2½L fourth of 12 in a Listed Event finishing behind the 109 rated Good Effort and the 105 Rated On The Warpath who has since won a Class 2 Conditions Event. He should be able to sit handy or even dictate the speed and should have the closing sectional speed to stay in front.

Gulliver has run 5 of the last 6 best Speed Figures but I would have to be concerned about the fact that the O’Meara yard are 0 from 34 in the last 30 days.

Keyser Soze has the best recent CD Speed Figure, he is 2 from 3 over CD and is yet to finish out of the placings, beating 95% of his rivals or 90% RB². Now back down to his last winning mark with the first time cheek-pieces. Hollie Doyle takes the ride and the Jockey/Trainer combination were 6 from 22 last year on the AW.

Revolutionise is the possible improver.

CONCLUSION

A very tough little Lingfield Handicap. Much depends on how much REVOLUTIONISE can/has improved. HIGHLAND DRESS looks to have plenty in his favour, the race should be run to suit and even though I really don’t like taking Conditions Race form literally the form of his Listed Race fourth before that looks really strong. I was really strong on Revolutionise last time out and there could be more to come but this is tougher, he needs to prove he handles the track, which based on his latest win he should, but all of his wins have come after a minimum of 20 days off the track.


Some great insights once again from Dave, using his in depth knowledge to really paint a picture of what is likely to happen in this intriguing Lingfield All-Weather contest. 

Best of luck if you are getting involved today and again, if you want to make sure you don’t miss any future posts from David then simply sign-up to the free NTF mailing list here.

Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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28 responses to “Dress to impress at Lingfield?”

  1. Hi David
    You don’t squirm away from the tough ones😜
    Nice piece of work
    I think I will sit this one out what will be interesting to see is if tinto stays the7 furlong if he does he could be a danger to all.
    Highland dress as you say look the most likely winner my concern is he’s 0/6 in-class hcp.
    Good luck 🍀.
    Kim

    • Agree totally Kim. His record at this level is worrying but I just thought that this wasn’t the toughest Class 2 and those proven at this level had something to prove otherwise. Trip, stable form etc

  2. Very interesting analysis – certainly hard to make an overwhelming case for any of these and generally I would not normally be tempted to take on any of these. However intriguing depth of thought here and my own tools certainly highlight Highland Dress as a contender. Just hard to rule out the others given HD is at the top of his mark, so have chosen to do a 20/80 bet. Caution is the watchword here!

    Thanks again and as I have said before – keep them coming! Really makes AW fascinating.

    Ian

  3. Hi David have you ever thought of going public I’m sure people would settle for your opinion 2 or 3 times a week regards LARRY

  4. Another brilliant in depth analysis. Yes, agreed it was a tight call, so I did HD and the 2nd e/w. Pity I didn’t do the reverse forecast, but not bothered, just happy with the result.
    Well done again.

  5. Thank you David, tremendous analysis yet again!!
    Ben, appreciate your efforts to provide David’s unparalleled advice without charge, sure that everyone respects that in the current circumstances,
    👍
    Graeme.

  6. Well done brilliant analysis
    Nothing better than if it plays out as described. Well done you must be very pleased with that.
    👍

  7. Absolutely top class.
    Well done (again) never been a plyer on the All Weather but when I can read the information that David provided it makes me want to get involved.
    Many Thanks,

  8. Wow what can one say excellent analysis yet again I am not normally a A/W player but so impressed with results that am beginning to start getting involved .
    Thankyou so much David

  9. great write up dave..you certainly know your stuff..well done and thanks to ben as well..keep up the great work and best of luck going forward thanks pat

  10. Thanks for all the messages it great to see people building an interest in the AW Racing. If you steer clear of the Class 5,6,7 races there really is some good racing

  11. boom
    very impressed , on the road in work , having checked emails i played win on hd ,ew revolution and £5 rfc, only bet of the day,
    thank you very much, youre becoming a star
    regards chris

  12. Yet another brilliant analysis,David.Well done ! I am afraid I have always found the All Weather very tricky but you certainly have it worked out well.Thanks again to Ben too.

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