After a long hot summer the rains have finally arrived… ⛈️🌧️…much needed though, let’s be honest…
This week gives us the St Leger from Doncaster as well as the Irish Champion Stakes from Leopardstown, both races I’ll be covering on the full NTF Members Service, as well as a few others from the four day Doncaster St Leger meeting action…
Thanks for the emails regarding LETHAL NYMPH’s win at Ascot on Saturday (SP 12-1 – BFSP 16.50), seems a good few of you took note of him when he appeared in the Notebook at the start of last month 😎🥳👍
LETHAL NYMPH was highlighted to my own members in my daily NTF Stats Sheets but if you want to keep tabs on any of the notebooked horses in your own tracker, then the guys at GeeGeez have a great ‘Tracker Tool’ in the GeeGeez Gold package, their £1 30-day trial offer is also still active…
Here’s the latest group of NTF Notebook horses for you to add to your trackers…
NTF NOTEBOOK: Monday 29th August – Sunday
2nd of 7, 7f 3yo+ Handicap, Chepstow, 30th August
This Clive Cox handicap debutant bumped into a winner, in the shape of the David O’Meara trained AUTUMN FESTIVAL, who is in rampant form at present (he was rattling up a hat-trick here) and this 1.5L second, on what was her first start for 232 days, reads extremely well and she’ll have gained plenty for this outing, both in experience and race fitness.
RETURN VOYAGE posted a career best on the Speed Figure front here (Proform Speed Figures), on what was not only her handicap debut but also her first spin on the turf and also her first try beyond 6f, all of which she handled with aplomb whilst also giving a strong indication that she has plenty to offer going forward from this.
Also well worth noting that Clive Cox 3yo female handicappers that make their handicap debut in June or later generally improve for the run…
C Cox 3yo female handicappers | Handicap Debut in June-Dec = 5/105 | 5% S/R – 56% below exp
C Cox 3yo female handicappers | 2nd Handicap start in June-Dec = 15/109 | 14% S/R – 9% above exp
…and this Street Boss filly is worth looking out for on her next start and beyond, her opening mark of OR 60 looks more than workable (shunted up 2lbs to OR 62 for this run)…
2nd of 9, 6f 4yo+ Handicap, Hamilton, 31st August
Stella Barclay’s 4yo Dandy Man gelding continued the fine form he’s been showing this season and this effort suggests his next win shouldn’t be far off.
He’s some way below his peak rating right now – ran here off OR 64 and he was rated as high as OR 84 as a 2yo, winning off OR 82 – and he’s worth looking out for under the following Prime Conditions…
C4 of less Straight Turf races | June-Nov = 2234122114 (3/10, 5p – all 3 career wins)
5th of 13, 6f 3yo Handicap, York, 4th September
It paid to be drawn low in this 6f handicap, with the first three home drawn in stalls 1, 3 & 5 and this William Haggas filly being the first home of those coming from a double figure draw, and the only one home in the first six to be drawn in double figures. Tom Marquand had to switch left in the closing stages to get where the action was and in doing so met a bit of trouble at a crucial point, but his mount stayed on well once in the clear and it’s not hard to think she would have finished even closer had she been given a better draw.
She’s been extremely progressive since switching to handicaps and turf and on this evidence there’s plenty more still to come from her. It’s also worth noting that Haggas generally does well with these types at the back end of the season…
(Since 2016) W Haggas | 3yo colt & fillies in handicaps | Sept – Nov | Single figure SP = 46/159 | 29% S/R | +£57.15 BFLSP – W&P 76/159 | 48% S/R – 22% above expectation
3rd of 15, 1m2.5f 3yo+ Handicap, York, 4th September
The wide stalls are an extremely tricky place to be winning from in big field handicaps (14+ runners) over the York 1m2.5f trip… since 2012 there have been 47 such races and only six of them have gone to a horse drawn in the top quarter of the draw, they only win 13% of these races and fire at 47% below expectation… it’s actually becoming even harder to win from the highest quarter of the draw as well… since 2016 those breaking from the top quarter of the draw in races similar to this one are a rather pathetic 0/106…with only 14 even managing to find their way into the places…
With that in mind John Quinn’s 5yo had an almost impossible job from stall 14 of 15 and his 3.75L third deserves a decent mark up on the bare performance, even more so when you consider he put 2.5L+ between himself and the remainder. He’ll also strip fitter for this outing, which was his first for 105 days, and he should be ready to fire now, at a time of year where he has shown good form, with September to November form on his CV of… 1250121 (4/10, 3p).
He’s handicapped to win at present (ran here off OR 81) and I’ll be looking out for him under the following Prime Conditions…
Turf | 1m-1m2.5f | OR 85 or less | June – Nov = 321211 (3/6, 3p – all 3 flat wins)
Enjoy the St Leger meeting and I’ll be back here on Thursday with the next instalment of ‘How did THAT win/How did that NOT win!?‘…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)