NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 30th Aug – 5th Sept
The mid-summer stretch is done… the early-autumn run has begun…
We’re moving into one of my favourite phases of the flat season – that early‑autumn run where the racing seems to throw multiple big-field handicaps at us every single weekend, and the draw/pace angles become absolute gold dust for anyone paying close attention…
Over the next few weeks we’re staring down a relentless conveyor belt of major autumn handicaps, with big weekend cards, some competitive mini-festivals, and a steady stream of races that will shape the rest of the campaign. It’s the kind of period where you can very easily burn through your bankroll if you try to play everything… but equally, it’s a time when the patient, selective punter can make serious ground…
Discipline first, opportunities second…
With the volume of racing about to spike again, the key is picking your spots. You don’t need to be involved in every race – far from it. Let the draw biases, pace maps and long-term behavioural patterns guide you. When they line up, you strike. When they don’t, you watch, take notes and keep your mind sharp for better opportunities…
A goldmine for BDH hunters…
The upside of this upcoming barrage of tasty handicaps is simple: more chances to identify Badly Drawn Horses! These next few weeks, especially now the ground is on the turn, are prime territory for spotting runners who’ve been stuck out in the wrong quarter, forced to race against the track/ground bias, or given no chance by the shape of the race. Those are the horses that often pop up later at tasty prices when conditions finally tilt in their favour and the draw plays with them instead of against them…
This period of the year tends to throw up plenty of BDH candidates – some lightly raced types, some progressive handicappers, and more than a few who’ve been repeatedly done zero favours by the draw…
And here’s your latest free BDH…
As always, I keep sifting through the mountain of racing so NTF members don’t have to… and here’s the latest free BDH for your tracker, pulled from the notes that just went to out to full members…
BADLY DRAWN HORSE
4th September – Ascot
4:48 – Class 2 Handicap over 1m (13 runners)
HARD ENDEAVOR (J Chapple-Hyam)
Finished 5th | Drawn in stall 3 (Q1 of draw)
This handicap was dominated by the top-half of the draw/Q4 of the draw… the first 3 home were drawn in stalls 9 or higher and the first 2 home were drawn in stalls 11 & 12 (the 2nd and 3rd highest stalls)… as has been the case at Ascot all throughout this year, in straight track races with fields of 10+, there was a bias towards the top half of the draw and an even stronger bias towards Q4 of the draw… and those drawn in the bottom half were up against it from the off…
A Q1 starting berth was always going to make life tricky for this Jane Chapple-Hyam trained 4yo, and the fact the 4 that finished ahead of him were 4L clear come the line was a clear indicator of the disadvantage he faced as soon as the gates opened.
He was, however, first home of those that raced on the far side of the group and ultimately he probably didn’t have all that hard a race, with Rossa Ryan just nudging him out in the closing stages once the 4 that finished ahead of him had opened up a gap.
He’s still lightly raced after only 7 career starts, only 4 of those runs coming in handicaps, and there was enough in this effort to suggest he’s capable of big runs before the season is out.
Also worth noting that Jane Chapple-Hyam tends to do well with the offspring of New Bay (which Hard Endeavour is) under the following…
J Chapple-Hyam | New Bay offspring | 7f-1m4f | May-Nov | DSLR 12-70 = 21/85 | 25% S/R | +£48.01 – W&P 36/85 | 42% S/R – 29% above exp
The BDH horses posted here on the NTF blog are taken from the full Badly Drawn Horse Guide that NTF Members receive every week as part of their full NTF subscription… when any of the noted BDH Horses runs next I highlight them to members so they don’t miss out…
I source, fine-tune and highlight ALL the vital Badly Drawn Horses to follow each and every week… so members don’t have to…
And keep following the blog… this next stretch of the season is where the smart punters can start to separate themselves from the rest… with a little bit of Badly Drawn Horse analysis thrown in to the mix 🔀🔀🔀
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
🆓👇🆓👇🆓
p.s. have you downloaded the FREE ‘Draw Jockeys’ Guide yet?
If not just stick your name and best email in the form below and get your guide today…
The ‘Draw Jockeys’ guide will change how you read races…
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