I fear I may have spoken too soon the other day when I suggested that racing had managed to get through the other side of the snow bomb!?!
National Hunt meetings are again taking a battering and being lost to the elements…but have no fear, All-Weather Davy is here!!
This time NTF’s resident All-Weather expert David Punshon is heading to Chelmsford for the 7f handicap, due off at 7.00pm…
THURSDAY 7:00 CHELMSFORD 7F CLASS 4 (0 TO 80) HANDICAP
POSSIBLE EARLY SPEED RUNNERS (LIKELY TO RUN IN THE FIRST WAVE)
- Stall 3 – FINAL FRONTIER is 0 from 9 on the AW, 4 of which were over 7f but he did lead over CD back in October 2019 for one of his better AW runs when finishing 3¼L fourth of 11 and although that was a Class 5 this doesn’t look too much stronger and he does look the type of runner that does better off lighter weights against better rivals rather than of high weights against lesser rivals. Did win a Group 3 in 2015.
- Stall 4 – JOHNNY REB is 2 from 12 on the AW with both wins coming when making all over 6 and 7 furlongs at Kempton. He has only been out of the placings on 4 of those runs beating 73.3% of his rivals but this doesn’t look any weaker than the CD Class 4 in which he finished just over 1½L third of 10.
- Stall 5 – BRUNEL CHARM is 1 from 8 on the AW winning on racecourse debut over 6f at Kempton. He has generally struggled since leaving Novice Company but he has dropped 10lbs due to that. He has led on 4 of his 10 career starts but has never finished within 2L of the winner in doing so. This is his first run here and wearing the Blinkers which could either light him up to go forward or the reverse, either way the yard’s runners have a poor record in the first time Blinkers.
- Stall 8 – GLEN COCO is 6 from 10 on the AW and has either won or been placed on 50% of his AW starts. He is 4 from 11 at the track and 3 from 7 over CD with all those wins coming off marks higher than today. He is now 11lbs lower than his last winning mark and today’s capable jockey takes off a further 3lbs. Marco Ghiani has ridden for this yard 7 times so far in 2012 and has won on 5 of them. I am not concerned by the 46-day break as all of his career wins have come when returning from a minimum break of 3 weeks
SPEED TRACKERS (LIKELY SECOND WAVE RUNNERS)
- Stall 10 – MASKED IDENTITY is the second of the S Keightley and I am presuming Josephine Gordon had the choice of runners considering she has ridden Triple Distilled the last twice. This one has at least won on the AW ant Southwell over a mile and at Wolverhampton over 7f. His last win came over this trip at Newmarket in July when tracking the speed, he has now dropped back down to that mark and more importantly back down to 7f.
MIDFIELD RUNNERS (LIKELY TO RUN IN THE THIRD WAVE)
- Stall 6 – STRAWBERRY JACK is 2 from 9 on the AW, 2 from 5 at the track and 1 from 1 over CD. He also won here over 8f. Judged on his other runs at the track I would expect him to race in the third phase of runners. He has dropped to 3lbs below his last winning mark and drops back in to Class 4 Company after 2 qualifying runs in Class 3 races.
- Stall 11 – OLD NEWS won here over a mile when last seen in October. He has left Richard Hughes since to join Mrs Stubbs who is 0 from 25 with her newly acquisitioned runners.
- Stall 12 – SEAS OF ELZAAM is 2 from 4 on the AW and has won over CD when racing in mid-division in September and that was followed up by a win over the straight 7f at Newcastle. He was raised 9lbs for those 2 wins but struggled last time out.
HELD UP OR UNPREDICTABLE RUNNERS
- Stall 1 – CASARUAN has won at the track twice, the latest over CD off an 11lbs lower mark and previously over 8f off a 16lbs lower mark. He was held up for both of those wins but looks to be getting handicapped at the minute and likely to find these rivals too tough. Does get the first time cheek-pieces but that isn’t a positive for this yard.
- Stall 2 – MOSTAQQER is most definitely on My radar having only his third run for this yard since leaving Dermot Weld. He has done very little in 2 Lingfield AW Handicaps for Mr Wigham but would definitely be worth monitoring in the market although I have My suspicions that there is a nice little 0 to 60 with his name on it somewhere down the line.
- Stall 7 – DUTCH DECOY is a difficult runner to gauge regarding likely run style, he has led but that was at Southwell which can be mis-leading as many connections send their runners forward at that track as they believe it is the only way to win. He has won over this trip on the AW at Kempton in July off a 2lbs lower mark in what looked a slightly tougher race and several winners have subsequently come from that race with the second placed runner now rated 85 and the fourth placed now rated 90.
- Stall 9 – TRIPLE DISTILLED is another difficult runner to gauge regarding likely run style. He has only raced twice on the AW being soundly beaten on both occasions including on New Year’s Eve over this trip at Lingfield off just 1lb higher. This is only his third start for this yard and although he could be on a decent mark now 7lbs lower than for a soft ground turf win over this trip in July I expect connections may want a few more lbs removed. 1 of 2 runners for S Keightley.
EARLY PACE THOUGHTS – LIKELY SLOW AND UNCONTESTED
We don’t look to have a guaranteed front runner only several possible front runners and I don’t really take much notice of the draw here over this trip as there is around 3f of a straight before the first turn.
Final Frontier from stall 3 (11% chance of leading) did lead on his only run over CD but was unfancied in the market and has been restrained recently over 6f at Wolverhampton.
Johnny Reb from stall 4 (14.66% chance of leading) is 2 from 12 on the AW with both wins coming when making all over 6 and 7 furlongs at Kempton but his early sectional averages look slow.
Brunel Charm from stall 5 (14.67% chance of leading) has led for 3 of his last 4 runs but again was generally un fancied in the market and last time out when he was fancied he was happy to take a lead and chase the leaders.
Glen Coco would have the best early sectional average but is just far too unpredictable/versatile to nail down.
FINAL PACE THOUGHTS
Glenn Coco and Johnny Reb are closely matched on CD Final Pace Ratings for their run last time out when Johnny Reb finished 3½L in front of Glen Coco but quite simply Glen Coco was too far back when 4¼L behind Johnny Reb with 3f to go. Glen Coco does have some of the best Final Pace Ratings and recorded the best Final Pace Rating of 82.5 here over a mile when finishing a short head second in January.
Masked Identity does have some decent Final Pace Ratings but is behind Glenn Coco on those recorded here
He isn’t the most predictable runner and although he doesn’t look to have been obviously handicapped, I do have a sneaking suspicion Glenn Coco is ready to strike. Theoretically a 4lbs turn around for 3½L shouldn’t see a reverse of placings but I feel Glenn Coco could finish in front of Johnny Reb if Glenn Coco is on a going day and ridden handier. He is 6 from 10 on the AW, 4 from 11 at the track and 3 from 7 over CD with all those wins coming off marks higher than today. He is now 11lbs lower than his last winning mark and today’s capable jockey takes off a further 3lbs. I am not concerned by the 46-day break as all of his career wins have come when returning from a minimum break of 3 weeks and Stuart Williams has had 8 winners from 22 runners in the last 14 days plus Marco Ghiani has ridden for this yard 7 times so far in 2021 and has won on 5 of them.
Masked Identity is the intriguing runner, he finished ¾L in front of Glenn Coco over CD in October when 5lbs wrong at the weights. He had to give Glenn Coco 8lbs that day when officially only rated 3lbs better, today they are on correct terms and he only has to give him the 6lbs but in the last 90 days S Keightley has had no winners on the AW from his last 47 runners with only 7 reaching the places.
Strawberry Jack is 2 from 5 at the track and 1 from 1 over CD, he has dropped to 3lbs below his last winning mark and drops back in to Class 4 Company after 2 qualifying runs in Class 3 races and although he has a 120-day absence to overcome his CD win in November 2019 was on the back of a 103-day break.
Another fascinating read from David, plenty food for thought and in-depth analysis to give us a real feel of the contest.
Thanks again to David for allowing his work to be shared here on NTF and best of luck if you are getting involved in the Chelmsford action this evening.
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)