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Five Winter Warmers to keep you off the National Hunt cold list…

NTF Winter Warmers, you know the sort… those horse that just love getting out of bed in the deep-mid-winter months and running to the peak of their abilities when the mud is flying and we are all wrapped up in our winter coats and dog-walking wellies! Yeah them, that’s what a Winter Warmer is and this post highlights five such types for you to take advantage of, cherry-picked from my deep reserve of horse notes.

But what makes an NTF Winter Warmer?

This Winter Warmers post concentrates on monthly patterns for individual horses and focuses on those types that excel in the November to January period, a period I personally see as the deep-mid-winter months. On some occasions, when applicable, I’ve also extended the parameters to include October and/or February.

The five horses in this post have proven themselves to be winter lovers in the past and, given their Prime Conditions, should again run big races this season when the temperature gauge reads brass monkeys!

Check out the following five Winter Warmers for the 2021/22 National Hunt season…

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FIRST FLOW (K Bailey)

9yo – 20 career starts, 10 wins

Overall Form line – 4/4111P/5/22132111/1116-6

Winter Warmer Form

Nov-Feb: 12211131114211 (9/14) 

All other months: P51664 (1/6) 

Prime Conditions

Nov – Feb | NOT Very Undulating tracks = 1111123122111 (9/13, 3p – 9 of 10 career wins)

Notes: Progressed from handicaps into a G1 winner at Ascot in January although couldn’t add to that win at the spring festivals. His best chance at top level success this term looks likely to come in the Nov-Feb period where he’s likely to be getting his preferred Soft/Heavy underfoot conditions.

**

CHARMANT (J Ewart) 

9yo – 26 career starts, 6 wins

Overall Form line – 3/3365324/11424/1141F/451P/874P-

Winter Warmer Form

Nov-Jan: 6511411445175 (5/13)

All other months: 333324241FP8P (1/13) 

Prime Conditions

C3 or less | OR 136 or less | fields of 9 or less = 114114211 (6/9, 1p – all 6 career wins) 

Add in Nov-Jan filter to main PC conditions = 141111 (5/6 – 5 of 6 career wins)

Notes: Spent last season either too high in the handicap (above OR 136) or running out with his Prime Conditions. Starts this season on a very workable mark (OR 128) and it would be disappointing she he not add to his 6 career wins, especially during the winter months.

**

SENSULANO (N Williams) 

8yo – 22 career starts, 5 wins

Overall Form line – 4/2321302/1124/21129/52545-

Winter Warmer Form

Nov-Jan: 31121125122 (5/11)

All other months: 34409542225 (0/11) 

Prime Conditions

Nov-Jan | races worth 21k or less = 211211123 (5/9, 2p – all 5 career wins)

Notes: The mare failed to shine last season but connections evidently thought she had a breathing issue and send her for a wind op in January. She returned in February but by then it was out of her Prime Months (Nov-Jan) so it’s easy to ignore her well-beaten final two starts of the season. The up-shot of last season’s efforts are that she starts this season on the very eye-catching mark of OR 129, a mark she should be able to capitalize upon during the winter months. 

 **

LIMITED RESERVE (C Williams) 

9yo – 27 NH career starts, 6 wins

Overall Form line – 6453551125/24211/403011/33UP6P-

Winter Warmer Form

Nov-Feb: 521031113031U1P (6/15)

All other months: 76P256442995345 (0/15) 

Prime Conditions

G/S or softer | DSLR 45 or less | Nov-Feb | Flat-Slightly Und tracks | Handicaps = P11031111 (6/9 – all 6 career wins)

Notes: Another that disappointed last season but he rarely had his Prime Conditions to attack and hopefully he’ll be better placed this term during his Prime Months.

 **

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (A King) 

9yo – 16 career starts, 5 wins

Overall Form line – 55637/111233/4/114P-

Winter Warmer Form

Nov-Jan: 11111 (5/5)

All other months: 324473P3 (0/9) 

Prime Conditions

November to January!!

Notes: A horse that has had his career stunted by injury but he showed last season he still retains plenty ability and I’d expect him still to be a force during the deep mid-winter before probably finding the ‘heat’ of the second part of the season just a shade out with his pay-grade.

**

As always, there are no guarantees in horse racing but based on prior form it would be disappointing should this collection of Winter Warmers fail to pick off a race or two during the winter months.

Want MORE Winter Warmers?

Members of the NTF Free List received the complete Winter Warmers guide this morning, containing five additional Winter Warmers to add to their notebooks and profit from over the coming months.

To get the full and complete Winter Warmers guide simply drop your name and best email in the form below…

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If you are already a member of the free guide then check your inbox for this mornings email, which will contain the full ten horse Winter Warmers guide. (Check spam/junk/promo folders if you can’t see it in your main folder).

Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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