MENORAH – Unseated rider 2 out on Chase debut
SAM WINNER – Fell at the last on Chase debut
Not the greatest chasing debuts in recent history from 2 horses that are expected to get pretty near the top of the chasing tree.
Despite making a complete hash of the second last fence MENORAH was shortened in places by a number of firms for the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March – the Hobbs horse is now a general 10-1 although he is as low as 8-1 with Stan James.
However, if we take a look back at the chase debuts of the Arkle top 3 finishers over the past 10 seasons one thing is glaringly obvious; you need to stay on your feet on chasing debut if you are to have any pretentions of having a say in the finish of the Grade 1 Novice Chase.
In fact the figures tell you its a massive advantage to have WON on your chasing debut.
Take a look at the last 10 Arkle top 3 finishers and how they fared on their Chasing debuts –
Captain Chris – 2nd on Chasing Debut
Finians Ranbow – 1st
Realt Dubh – 1st
Sizing Europe – 1st
Somersby – 1st
Osana – 1st
Forpadytheplasterer – 1st
Kalahari King – 1st
Planet Of Sound – 4th
Tidal Bay – 1st
Kruguyrova – 1st
Noland – 1st
My Way De Solzen – 1st (PU on only chase start in France as a 4yo before moving to A King)
Fair Along – 1st
Jack The Giant – 1st
Voy Por Ustedes – 1st
Monets Garden – 1st
Foreman – 2nd
Contraband – 2nd
Ashley Brook – 1st
River City – 1st
Well Chief – 1st
Kicking King – 5th
Le Duc – 1st
Azertyuiop – 1st
Impek – 1st
Isio – 1st
Moscow Flyer – FELL
Seebald – 1st
Armaturk – 1st
So from the last 30 Arkle Chase top 3 finishers…..
23 WON on their Chase debut
27 finished in the top 2 on their Chase debut
Only ONE failed to complete the course on their chase debut….and that was the mighty MOSCOW FLYER!
The figures don’t look great for either MENORAH or SAM WINNER to go on and achieve Arkle Chase success at Cheltenham in March.
Obviously racing is not always as cut and dry as this but failing to complete on chasing debut is far from ideal and I would be wanting to see a clear round from both yesterdays casualties before even entertaining backing them for festival glory.
Is a clear round on debut the key to Arkle success?
The figures point firmly towards YES.
Jumping is,after all, the name of the game…….