Racing UK’s Andy Richmond is back again in his regular weekend slot with some excellent in-running pointers for us all to ponder over.
Over to Andy……
In-running pointers – 05-11-11
Some excellent jumping action today all around country and just time to jot down a few IR notes for today’s meeting which may prove useful this afternoon. If anything else catches my attention I’ll “tweet” them this afternoon via Twitter with the hashtag #IRpointers, and you can find me on the Twittersphere under @Bickley14.
Right on with the first thought in the 1.10 Wincanton – IONA DAYS is the horse in question and the ground may well have been a little quick for him last time out, back on a more suitable surface this strong relatively prominent traveller has an excellent chance of trading well under his SP, although he doesn’t have a great record of converting those short priced chances and I would see him more of a back-to-lay opportunity.
The Mares’ handicap hurdle at 1.45 is also a race I shall be keeping a close eye on especially in how VEILED runs, given the way this race will pan out I wouldn’t be surprised if she is good enough to win this but at the same time trade bigger than her SP IR, especially as she is likely to be held-up today. The braver among you may wish to use her as a lay-to-back opportunity especially as the shape of the race suggests that her main rivals will be more prominently ridden.
Onwards and northwards we go to Kelso and 1.00 will give Timmy Murphy another chance for a stalking ride in the Ray Anderson Green colours aboard SUPER ALLY, this horse has caught my eye on several occasions and it may well be that you can steal a slightly bigger price IR in the early stages of the race and start to lay that stake off as he moves into the race from around halfway.
The following race looks to have brought about a great chance for SAFARI ADVENTURES especially as this is his grade today. Now I use Proform for all my form and IR analysis and to save time if you take a look at the Proform blog today you will see a very cogent and detailed analysis of the chance of Safari Adventures – and shows the depth of analysis that can be provided by the database. This data can be accessed via www.proformprofessional.com and clicking on the blog link on the left hand menu.
The bottom line with Safari Adventures is that he is likely to get an unopposed lead today and I can see him trading well below his SP for a large majority of the race.
The richest race on the card at Kelso comes up at 2.40 and with the Sue Smith stable in cracking form I’m looking forward to seeing her STAGECOACH PEARL take this race by the scruff of the neck. His attacking style should soon see him trading shorter than his SP especially as there are a few on this race who may be better for the run and come from stables which are only just starting to get going. Another plus for Stagecoach Pearl is the fact that he is a tenacious front runner who doesn’t curl up when he is challenged so don’t be too quick to lay him if he looks under pressure as he has been known to battle back.
Sandown’s National Hunt season gets underway today with a competitive card and I’d just like to mention a couple of horses who although they travel strongly during their races making them decent back-to-lay vehicles do not find much at the end of their races. I’ll leave up to you how you want to play them.
SWITCHED OFF is the first in the 3.00, his last eight runs have seen him trade under his SP on every single occasion, and each time by more than 50%, but he has only converted once and has been beaten at 1.31, 1.02. 151 and 1.81 – take care if you are tempted to back him in the closing stages.
Similarly EARTH PLANET (3.30) is one that can travel very strongly into his races and looks to be going sweetly before finding very little, his IR record shows that he consistently trades way below his SP but he does have difficulty converting those chances and whilst he may well be a “safe” back-to-lay I would have more emphasis on the lay than back.
Just a few IR thoughts that will hopefully be of interest on a cracking afternoons National Hunt action.
Thanks again to Andy for his fascinating thoughts on the days racing.