horse racing

Weekly Hcp Sleeper Notes: 7th-9th June

A bit of a quieter time in terms of quality last weekend… bit of a post-Epsom/pre-Royal Ascot lull I suppose…

Still, however, plenty in the way of quantity and that’s always good when it comes to topping up my Handicap Sleeper notes, with some of those notes being available below in this weeks blog post…

Before I get on to that…

Great to hear that a good few of you managed to pick off some juicy profits from the FREE Handicap Sleepers Guide that was sent to the NTF Free List a couple weeks ago… 

Saturday’s racing produced the following…

🥈 RAIN CAP (18/1 – 2.45 Catterick)

🥇 BAMA LAMA (13/2 | 9.40 BFSP – 7.30 Chepstow)

If you are yet to grab your own copy of the guide you can get it on the following page…

>>>12 FREE Handicap Sleepers for the 2024 Flat season

I’ll also have a FREE Royal Ascot guide available very soon, so well worth getting yourself on the FREE NTF LIST so you don’t miss that guide…

Now for those Handicap Sleeper Notes from the weekend just past…

Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 7th – 9th June

Friday 7th June

528 Haydock – 1m4f Class 5 Handicap


Getting long in the tooth now aged 11 but he was 2/9, 3p last season and he wasn’t far off hitting the places on seasonal debut last month, so his age isn’t a concern as he still looks to have the ability to win races when conditions suit. This 1m4f trip will have stretched him – he’s now 0/15, 4p over further than 1m2f – and the wide draw won’t have been ideal, so it was no surprise he didn’t make an impact in this contest. He’s worth looking out for under his PC… 1m-1m2f Hcps | OR <86 | June-Oct | Good-G/S (or A/W) | DSLR <25 = 121018845488161111 (8/18, 1p – all 8 career wins)


658 Haydock – 6f Class 5 Handicap

3rd – KODI RED

Now 0/6, 1p since with Darryll Holland but this was the best effort he’s shown so far since moving from Ireland and Holland does have a well-handicapped horse on his hands… he ran here off OR 70, 25lbs below his peak mark of OR 95. He’s one of those that it may be worth being flexible enough with his Prime Conditions (now he’s at a different yard) but I’d tentatively be looking to be backing him under the following… C3 level or less | DSLR 28 or less | Good or quicker ground = 311 (2/3, 1p – both career wins)… conditions he faced in this race…


Back down to a mark he can win off now… was running here off OR 71, which is his highest winning mark, and should go down a pound or two for this effort (*was dropped 1lb to OR 70)… he won’t have been totally at home on the flat track (now 0/8, 1p on flat tracks) so no surprise he didn’t get competitive and he’s worth looking out for under the following… C5 or less Hcps | OR 71 or less | March-July | tracks with undulations | field of <12 = 116113 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)… possibly at his absolute prime on G/S or Soft ground (all 4 of his career wins on such ground) but I wouldn’t be against backing him on quicker ground if his main PC boxes are all ticked…

6th – SNASH

Good to Firm always been too quick for him (0/9, 0p on G/F) so no surprise he didn’t land a blow on the quick ground… ran here off OR 69, which is 1lb below his last winning mark and 18lbs below his highest (handicap) winning mark, so he’s handicapped to go well when he gets suitable conditions (*was dropped 2lbs to OR 67 for this run)… I’d have his PC somewhere around the following… OR 87 or less |  6f | C3 or less |  fields of <13 | Good ground (or AW) | Flat tracks (or AW) = 0101111 (5/7 – 5 of 6 career wins)



Saturday 8th June

315 Beverley – 7.5f Class 4 Handicap

Race Note: Favoured those drawn low, with the first 3 home breaking from stalls 2, 3 & 4 (once non-runners factored in)


Didn’t make the best of his stall 3 position as he was held-up in rear in the early stages and had to make his move out wide, and the winner had flown by the time he got fully going. He’s handicapped to be winning at present on OR 71, which is 5lbs below his highest win mark and 8lbs below his peak rating… and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… 7.5f-1m0.5f Hcps | OR 76 or less | RH | fields of <12 | DSLR 25 or less = 13161 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)… this was his first run for 245-days and he’s now 0/7, 3p off breaks of >25-days and should come on for the outing…


Was drawn widest of all here so was up against it right from the off and his 4.8L 6th is worth marking up a little given the draw handicap he had to try and overcome. He ran here off OR 69, which is 1lb above his last winning mark and 6lbs below his highest winning mark… he’ll likely go down a pound or two for this effort, which will put him below his last winning mark and make him even more attractively handicapped (*was dropped 2lbs to OR 67)… he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… C5 or less | OR 75 or less | 7f-7.5f | fields of <12 | Good+ (or A/W) = 6/13, 2p – all 6 career wins)


Another that was drawn wide (stall 10) although he did manage to get a good break and a decent racing position tracking the leaders, albeit he was parked out wide and had to use up more petrol than was ideal. He also isn’t ideally suited by Good to Firm ground (0/6, 2p) and he faded out of things when push came to shove at the business end of the race. He showed last season that he can still get the job done when meeting with his PC and he’s worth looking out for under the following… C4 or less Hcps (worth <10k) | OR <81 | 6f-7.5f | Flat/Slightly-Und tracks | Good or softer | June-Oct | DSLR <43 = 10/2, 8p (all 10 career wins)


245 Catterick – 7f Class 6 Handicap (Div 1)

Race Note: Favoured those drawn low and up on the pace, as it often can at Catterick…


Didn’t have an ideal draw in stall 8 (3 ahead of him drawn in 2, 4 & 5) and the Good to Firm ground won’t have been ideal as he doesn’t seem to enjoy extremes of going (combined form figures of 0/9, 1p on Good to Firm and Heavy ground)… a solid effort though and he’s starting to run into some solid form with his Prime Months on the horizon (July-Oct)… worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 80 or less | DSLR 12-25 | Good/G-S/Soft | July-Aug = 3/9, 2p – 3 of his 4 career wins


Yet to win prior to July and his hold up running style was a negative for this race… he’s never been a fan of Catterick anyway (now 0/6, 0p at track) and I suspect this was just a run to get him tuned up and in top shape for entering his prime months (July-Oct)…ran here off OR 58, 6lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 64, and 12lbs below his peak OR of 70… so he’s handicapped to be winning and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he meets with the following… Turf Hcps over 1m-1m1f | OR 64 or less | July-Oct | fields of <13 = 111112114121151 (11/15, 2p – all 11 handicap wins)


320 Catterick – 7f Class 6 Handicap (Div 2)


Has shown some decent form since returning to turf and he wasn’t beaten far here in 5th (less than a length covered the first five home). Ran here off OR 60, 3lbs above his last win mark and 14lbs below his highest win mark and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he meets with the following PC… OR 74 or less | C5 or less (race worth 4k or less) | 7f | LH tracks | May-Dec = 511111 (5/6 – all 5 career wins)



Sunday 9th June

540 Goodwood – 6f Class 4 Handicap


Ran here off OR 77, 5lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 82 and 10lbs below his peak rating of OR 87, so he’s handicapped to be winning at present. Conditions were suitable for the 6yo and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when meeting with similar conditions that meet with his Prime Conditions… Turf C3 or less Hcps | OR 82 or less | CPs | DSLR 12+ = 5/14, 6p – all 5 career wins… his trainer – Heather Main – has been quiet recently (0/29 last 60-days & 1/36 last 90-days) but that’s not out of the normal for the yards turf runners in the early part of the season and they do tend to start peaking in the June-August period, especially those with a run already on the board… H Main | Turf runners in June-Aug | 1+ seasonal starts = (since 2017) 43/261 | 16.5% S/R | +£393.94 BFLSP – W&P 86/261 | 33% S/R… this run from Mister Bluebird perhaps being a signal that the yard are about to start firing in some winners…


Shorthand explanations…

PC = Prime Conditions

DSLR = Days Since Last Run

OR = Official Rating

Hcps – Handicaps

LTO – Last Time Out

CP’s – Cheek-Pieces

When any of the above horses are entered up to run AND meet with their Prime Conditions they will be highlighted in the NTF Stats Sheets>>>

You can, of course, add the above horses to your own trackers so that you don’t miss out when they are due to run…

Both HorseRaceBase (Free 7-day trial HERE) and GeeGeez (£1 month trial HERE) have excellent tracker tools available as part of their software…

Before I head off and get that FREE Royal Ascot guide knocked into shape…

⚽⚽ EURO 2024 ⚽⚽

It’s going to be a busy next couple of months for us sports fans…

Royal Ascot


Tour de France


And, of course, EURO 2024

The tournament Kicked off this Friday by one of the favs for the tournament… SCOTLAND! 🫣🫣🫣

Jeezy Peeps! 

To be fair it is probably, as you will likely here plenty times before the match, a ‘good’ time to be taking on the Germans… but Scotland have an injury ravaged team… and… well… it’s Scotland! Is there ever a bad time to be taking on Scotland in a major tournament?!? 🤨

Mrs NTF said to me the other day ‘what odds you get on Scotland failing to score at Euro 2024?‘… which is probably a fair shout… I had a quick look and I did see 14/1 floating about… might be worth a dabble… can’t say I’m not tempted… one of those bets where if Scotland totally bomb then I cash in… but if they do find the back of the net I’ll at least be able to celebrate (for a short time)… a sort of win/win scenario… maybe…

Anyway… there are plenty people out there who will look into Euro 2024 with plenty more depth than an off the cuff comment from my other half…

And as always my go to guys when it comes to in-depth football stats and betting are these guys…

I plan on watching as many of the matches as I can over the 4-weeks and I do like to have a dabble on the betting front at the major tournaments… but racing analysis will be taking up most of my time, as always, so I like to ‘outsource’ the football data-digging side of things to someone I trust to do an expert job… and since at least the 2018 World Cup the guys at ACROSS THE LEAGUES have been my go to source of info (I also use them on the domestic front as well)…

See what Across The Leagues have to offer for Euro 2024>>>

Cheers – Ben (NTF)

If you missed last week’s Handicap Sleeper Notes you can find them HERE>>>

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