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Three to follow from the weekend: 26th, 27th & 28th November…

Ahoy there! Yes ‘the north’ look to have a serious player to go to war with this season in the shape of the Lucinda Russell trained AHOY SENOR, who smashed his rivals into submission when landing the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase at Newbury on Saturday. It’s easy to get carried away with a wide margin winner, and a wide margin winner he was, dismissing his 3 opponents by upwards of 31-lengths, but those performances are not always backed up by the figures and they can be misleading. That, however, is not the case for Ahoy Senor, as he posted a figure comfortably above par for this G2 (using Proform Speed Figures as my gauge) and also the second best figure in the last 11 renewals of this race, a figure only bettered by Native River when winning the 2015 renewal. Have no doubt about it, Ahoy Senor is a serious Chasing prospect…

The 6yo son of Dylan Thomas would be an ‘obvious’ one to follow from this weekend, but for this post I do prefer do dig a bit deeper for my three to follow, so grab your notebooks and get stuck into the latest ‘Three To Follow From The Weekend’ NTF blog post… 


Three to follow from the weekend: 26th, 27th & 28th November…

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COPPERHEAD (C Tizzard)

PU in the Ladbroke Trophy –  3.00 Newbury (Saturday 27th) 

Despite this being a PU effort I actually think there was plenty promise in the effort as he always needs his first run off a break (now 0/6, 0p off a break of 61+ days) and he generally doesn’t come to himself until the Dec-Feb period (5/10 in those months compared to 0/8 all other months).

He was going well enough near the head of the pack in the Ladbroke Trophy until making a mistake at the 14th fence and that just knocked the stuffing out of him enough to see him fade quickly, but prior to that he was running a solid race and the run won’t be lost on him as it should have brought him on nicely for the season ahead.

He’s worth looking out for under the following…..

Chase/Hurdle | G2 & below | DSLR 60 or less | Dec-Feb

…where he is…

111118 (5/6 – all 5 career wins)

He was also dropped a very generous 6lbs for this run to a mark of OR 142 and that looks a very winnable mark for him, especially if they can slot him into a race where he gets his Prime Conditions (which shouldn’t be too hard).

.

GLOBAL CITIZEN (B Pauling)

2nd in a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle –  2.18 Doncaster (Saturday 27th) 

The 9yo had shown precious little on recent starts and as a consequence had slipped down to the very eye-catching mark of OR 137 (dropped 1lb for this run to OR 136). He also wore first time CP’s in this contest, something which evidently sparked him into a bit of life (probably a bit much given how he blasted off in front and opened up a massive early lead, doing too much early on to sustain the effort all the way to the line).

He’s interesting going forward off this, particularly under the following…

G2 level & below | 10 or less runners | Flat-Slightly undulating tracks

…where he holds a form line of…

2P11121151 (6/10, 2p – all 6 career wins)

He had those conditions at Doncaster on Saturday and if they can just settle him a bit better under the headgear next time then he could find himself back in the winners enclosure.

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COOL MIX (I Jardine)

4th in the Listed Rehearsal Chase –  2.05 Newcastle (Saturday 27th) 

Another decent effort in this race from the 9yo (he ran third in the 2020 renewal) but ideally he wants a slightly lesser grade and I have Prime Conditions for him as…

C2 or less | DSLR 60 or less

…where he is…

33135122215122 (4/14, 7p – all 4 career wins).

He had to run from 3lbs out of the handicap here (so technically running from a career high mark of OR 132) and there will be better chances for him down in grade and off his proper mark of OR 129.

It’s also well worth noting that he ran a career best on the figures on Saturday (again using Proform Speed Figures as my gauge) which is very interesting if you consider the fact that he’ll be running off a 3lb lower mark next time out (assuming he isn’t running from out of the handicap again).


Cheers – Ben (NTF)

p.s. if you’ve missed any of the previous ‘Three To Follow…’ posts then you can find them all on the NTF Blog menu page 👍

4 responses to “Three to follow from the weekend: 26th, 27th & 28th November…”

  1. Absolutely love the way you break down the horse’s form and optimum conditions.
    Hopefully we will have a couple of decent wins from these three horses.

    • Cheers Dave, much appreciated.

      Fingers crossed a few of the ‘to follow’ horses from the free blog can land in the winners enclosure in the coming weeks/months.

      Ben (NTF)

    • Hi Michael

      He’ll have needed that run on Saturday but there was still plenty to like a bout it and hopefully he be more competitive now with that run under his belt.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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