A short and snappy ‘Three To Follow…’ post this week, with plenty of my time being consumed, naturally, by all things Cheltenham Festival… two weeks and counting!
All of you on the free NTF list should by now have downloaded the latest free guide from myself ‘Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: The NTF Cheat Sheet‘ but if you are still to do that just head back to the email I sent you all today and pick it up from there 👍
…and if you are not on the free NTF list and want that guide (you should, it will be a big help to you if you are looking to attack the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival) then simply slide along to the follow page and drop your details in the form…
Keeping with all things Cheltenham… also make sure you tune into the midweek PodBlast tomorrow (Wednesday 1st March) as there will be more Cheltenham Festival coverage from Tony Mac and I, this time we’ll be giving you Eleven Killer Stats for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival… you don’t want to miss that one!
Now, however, it’s time for the latest…
Three to follow from the Weekend: 24th, 25th & 26th February…
NUMITOR (Mrs H Main)
3rd in a C3 Handicap Chase – 300 Warwick (Friday 24th Feb)
Posted a solid effort here on his first start off a wind-op but ultimately the ground was probably just a shade on the quick side for him, with his record on Good ground now standing at 0/5, 1p.
He was dropped 2lbs for this run to OR 135 and although that is still 4lbs above his last and highest win mark I do think it’s a mark he should be competitive off. He placed in a Class 2 at Haydock last spring off 140 and I have his ceiling somewhere around the mid-130’s so he becomes of interest to me now he’s back in that area.
I’ll be looking out for him under the following Prime Conditions…
C3 or less Hcps | G/S or softer
…where he has a form line of…
113113 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)
RATH AN IUIR (Mrs R Dobbin)
5th in a C2 Eider Handicap Chase – 325 Newcastle (Saturday 25th Feb)
Rose Dobbins’ 10yo was never really in contention at any stage in this marathon contest but he plugged on down the straight to pick off some prize money for his connections.
He’s another that will have found the weekend’s ground conditions not in his favour as his splits tell us he really wants the mud to be flying…
Form on Good to Soft or quicker = 0/4, 0p
Form on Soft or Heavy = 4/10, 2p
At his peak he was capable of winning off a mark as high as OR 129 and whilst I doubt he’ll reach back to those levels his current mark of OR 117 (down 1lb for this run) should be well within range for him.
I wouldn’t have concrete Prime Conditions for him but the following would look ‘preferable conditions’ for him…
C3 or less | Soft or Heavy | tracks with undulations
…where he is…
1581121 (4/7, 1p – all 4 career wins)
FIVE STAR GETAWAY (C Williams)
2nd in a C2 Handicap Chase – 403 Newcastle (Saturday 25th Feb)
The 9yo bumped into an unexposed Venetia Williams raider here and sometimes you just have to sit back and face the fact you bumped into one who was a good way ahead of its mark (which was clearly the case with the winner Easy As That).
Five Star Getaway is back on a winnable mark now (and he went down 1lb for this effort) and also back in a bit of form and he’s worth looking out for under the following…
C2 or less hcp Chases | 2m4f+ | fields of 11 or less | OR 130 or less
…where he is…
21111 (4/5 – all 5 career wins)
…this run being his first defeat under his Prime Conditions (although again it’s more than excusable, what with the handicapper a long way from catching up with the Venetia Williams trained winner).
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can grab all previous NTF Blog posts HERE
…and remember to grab the free Cheltenham Festival guide I currently have available for you…