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The February trainer trends you need on your side…

February is the time to catch the Sue Smith Handicap Chasers.

As we leave a wet and wild January behind us and zoom into a peaceful and calm February (yeah right!!) it’s time to fire up the stats machine again and take a look at some Trainer Trends to keep us in profit and build the betting bank for the impending Cheltenham Festival festivities!

For February I want to concentrate on those trainers that excel with their handicappers.

I’m splitting them into Handicap Chase Trainers and Handicap Hurdle Trainers and then doing a little bit more digging for each.

Lets start with those February Handicap Chase Trainers…

*Stats sourced from the Proform database – The past five January’s is the period used for analysis

 

The Handicap Chase Masters…

The following trainers have their Handicap Chasers in prime shape during February…

 

Sue Smith

15/76 | 20% S/R | +£26.62 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/76 | 36% S/R

Decent enough stats on their own there but they can be significantly improved upon by looking at the following two filters…

S Smith February Handicap Chasers when ground is officially Soft or Heavy…

15/52 | 29% S/R | +£50.62 BFLSP – Win & Place 24/52 | 46% S/R

Add into that…

S Smith February Handicap Chasers when ground is officially Soft or Heavy and returning within 45 days of last run…

14/39 | 36% S/R | +£51.59 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/39 | 54% S/R

Those are hefty figures and produced a profit on each of the last five February’s.

Keep the angle firmly on the radar.

.

David Pipe

14/58 | 24% S/R | +£16.45 BFLSP – Win & Place 22/58 | 38% S/R

A decent haul of winners over the sticks from Pipe in February and a 24% strike-rate to boot. One simple filter, however, transforms it from a decent angle to a fantastic angle…

D Pipe Feb Hcp Chasers starting in the top 3 of the betting…

13/26 | 50% S/R | +£33.52 – Win & Place 16/26 | 62% S/R

Not too shabby I’d say! That angle was also profitable on each of the last five February’s.

.

Alan King

10/43 | 23% S/R | +£22.65 BFLSP – Win & Place 16/43 | 37% S/R

King had an outstanding end to January and if the stats are anything to go by he should continue that into February, at least with his Handicap Chasers.

He’s another trainer where it pays to concentrate on those ones at the head of the market (top 3 in the betting)…

A King Feb Hcp Chasers starting in the top 3 of the betting…

9/24 | 38% S/R | +£27.83 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/24 | 50% S/R

Things improve again (significantly) when you look at those that were NOT hold-up horses…

A King Feb Hcp Chasers starting in the top 3 of the betting and were front-runners or close to pace runners…

8/12 | 67% S/R | +£34.31 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/12 | 83% S/R

Admittedly that’s a little bit of a fiddly angle to cope with but if you can leave your bets until nearer the off (where you can be more confident of the horse starting in the top 3) and there is plenty evidence that the horse ISN’T a hold-up type then there is a high chance of collecting the pot.

.

Stuart Coltherd

8/26 | 31% S/R | +£88.52 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/26 | 46% S/R

A bit more of a sneaky one this but super-profitable all the same, with Coltherd pulling in serious profits from his handicap chasers.

Things can be tightened up significantly if we look at his handicap chasers that were fourth or lower in the weights

S Coltherd Feb Hcp Chasers that are fourth or lower in the weights…

8/17 | 47% S/R | +£97.52 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/17 | 65% S/R

That’s serious strike-rates and profit pulling power from Coltherd there and a sneaky angle that’s well worth keeping on the radar.

*If you want examples of qualifiers on that fourth or lower in weights angle then AYE WELL in the 3.25 at Ayr on 17th Feb last year WAS a qualifier and OXALIDO in the 1.40 at Musselburgh on 11th Feb last year WASN’T a qualifier.

 

The Handicap Hurdle Masters…

The following trainers have their Handicap Hurdlers in prime shape during February…

David Pipe

20/105 | 19% S/R | +£43.65 BFLSP – Win & Place 46/105 | 44% S/R

Pipe doubles up this month and his Handicap Hurdlers join his Handicap Chasers as one’s to keep an eye on.

It worth paying particular attention to his Handicap Hurdlers when the mud is flying…

D Pipe February Handicap Hurdlers when ground is officially Soft or Heavy…

17/74 | 23% S/R | +£64.49 BFLSP – Win & Place 38/74 | 51% S/R

Things improve even further when looking at his handicap hurdlers that were front-runners/close to pace runners…

D Pipe February Handicap Hurdlers when ground is officially Soft or Heavy and horse is a front-runner or close to pace runner…

16/46 | 35% S/R | +£88.68 BFLSP – Win & Place 28/46 | 61% S/R

It may take a small bit of effort to find the horses running style but it well worth that effort in the long run.

.

Henry Oliver

6/14 | 43% S/R | +£6.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/14 | 43% S/R

Not a huge amount to go on here but the limited figures look solid so far and it could well be a developing angle to get on-board early.

If we add the following two angles – fields of 10 or less over 2m1f or less – then we get the following…

6/7 | 86% S/R | +£13.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/7 | 86% S/R

Will that hold water over time? Impossible to say for sure but the least we can do is keep a close eye on it and see how it’s working out.

.

Anthony Honeyball

8/19 | 42% S/R | +£33.47 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/19 | 42% S/R

On the face of it these stats look strong but six of the winners came last season (from 12 runners) so there is no guarantee these figures will continue again this term.

Like the Henry Oliver angle it’s maybe worth keeping an eye on to start with rather than relying heavily on it. At least until we have a bit more evidence anyway.

 

Happy February Handicap Punting.

Ben (NTF)

 

With thanks to Proform…

 

Proform Racing | The professional Formbook

 

10 responses to “The February trainer trends you need on your side…”

    • Thanks PG, glad the info will be of use to you.

      Hopefully Sue Smith will fire in a few handicap chase winners for us this month.

      Ben (NTF)

  1. A pleasure to read as always Ben.

    I know the sample for Sue Smith is already fairly small but does the distance angle alter the stats at all? As a regular at Newcastle & Hexham she seems to prefer a staying chaser.

    • Cheers Ian, glad you enjoy the posts.

      Strangely most of the Sue Smith winners come over the 2m4f trip, 10 of them in fact. Only 4 have run over shorter trips than that in the sample analysed so not that easy to narrow it down based on distances.

      With that in mind you are probably right with her preferring more staying types as most are over 2m4f+.

      For the record she is 4/6 over 25f+ in the period analysed.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  2. Great read and insight Ben, thank you.

    After Hours is a qualifier for Henry Oliver in the 3.45 at Taunton today. A promising horse too.

    • Thanks Oliver, much appreciated.

      Yeah After Hours a qualifier for H Oliver today.

      Be interesting to see if the stats hold up. Not a great deal to work with but so far they are strong.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  3. Hi Ben

    Just wondering are oil burner and surprise vendor qualifiers on the s coltherd angle today at Newcastle??

    Thanks
    mike

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