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NTF Ulster National Analysis: Look out for the ladies…

The marathon test of all marathon tests, The Aintree Grand National, is almost upon us but before then Downpatrick have managed to sneak in their own version; The Ulster National.

18 runners are set to go to post to battle it out for the valuable £16,250 (Euro) first prize, valuable for Downpatrick standards anyway, and here on the Blog I’m going to tear the race apart using my usual in-depth NTF analysis techniques.

I’ll be looking at the race using my NTF extended trends analysis and NTF Dosage analysis as well providing you guys with the exclusive NTF pace map so we can see how the race is likely to be run and the shape the race will hopefully take.

It is not a race I usually cover using these methods but the Dosage trends in particular look strong and it is worth having a dig about.

As always you can use my own analysis however you see fit, you may interpret my thoughts differently to myself.

Lets not hang about…

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TOALS BOOKMAKERS ULSTER GRAND NATIONAL EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND HANDICAP CHASE (5yo+)

NTF Extended Trends Analysis

1              13/14 were aged 7-10

2              13/14 had recorded a top 2 finish over 3m+

3              12/14 carried 11-1 or less to victory

4              12/14 had 2 or less chase victories

5              12/14 had their last start in a non-novice HANDICAP chase

6              11/14 were (IRE) bred

7              10/14 had 12 or less previous Chase starts

8              9/14 were a Novice or 2nd season chaser

…and this is how it looks when we apply it to today’s contestants…

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Tot

SOLE WITNESS

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

7/8

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

7/8

ZARDSKY

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

7/8

SHABRA CHARITY

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

7/8

FORESTSIDE

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

7/8

MISTER PHILSON

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

7/8

SERIATIM

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

6/8

ANOTHER PALM

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

6/8

BALLINAHOW LADY

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

6/8

KINGSMOSS

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

6/8

PRINCE OF FORWARDS

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

6/8

PINEAU DE RE

Y

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

5/8

FEVER PITCH

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

5/8

MONTANA SLIM

N

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

5/8

HIGH TALK

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

5/8

TILLAHOW

N

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

4/8

DUROOB

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

4/8

PACO JACK

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

3/8

You can see just how competitive this renewal is by the relative close proximity of the field on the trends front.

As is always the case I will use the top end of the table as my short-list. This means our short-list is made up of SOLE WITNESS, CARRIGEEN LECHUGA, ZARDSKY, SHABRA CHARITY, FORESTSIDE and MISTER PHILSON.

 

NTF Dosage Trends Analysis

DP          12/14 had 8 points or more in their DP

                11/14 had 12 points or more in their DP

               

DI            10/12 had a DI of 1.18 or below

                9/12 had a DI of 1.00 or below

               

CD          10/12 had a CD of 0.22 or below

                9/12 had a CD of 0.17 or below

               

DPA       (4/14) – DQ – 0 / 20+ – 3 / PATB – 1

 

Here is how are short-list stacks up once we apply the Dosage trends to them…

 

MISTER PHILSON              3-0-9-4-0              /              16           0.88        0.13

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA    2-0-5-3-0              /              10           0.82        0.10

FORESTSIDE        1-0-6-0-1              /              8              1.00        0.00

SHABRA CHARITY             3-1-12-4-6           DQ          26           0.63        -0.35

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ZARDSKY              6-4-4-2-0              /              16           3.00        0.88

SOLE WITNESS   4-0-11-0-1           /              16           1.46        0.38

Some fairly hefty pointers on the Dosage side of things for our short-list for this staying handicap.

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NTF Pace Maps

The NTF Pace maps will give you an indication of how the race is likely to be run and the preferred running styles of each runner…

 

Ulster National likely running styles

 

Ulster National pace map

*Click on images to enlarge

The running styles of the previous 14 winners of this race has been – FR = 1 | CP = 8 | HU = 5 – This then gives me the colour coding for the Pace Map above.

Today’s field doesn’t appear to hold an out and out front-runner but I would expect ZARDSKY to be the one that leads the pack along from the front.

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA, ANOTHER PALM, FORESTSIDE & PRINCE OF FORWARDS are likely to be sitting out the back and delaying their challenge until much later on in the contest.

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NTF Short-List – Notable Trends

SOLE WITNESS

All 4 career wins on Heavy ground (Record with good in description 77280F)

Jockey record on horse is 21U8140

3 of 4 career wins have come in fields of 12+

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA

Yet to run on anything other than Soft or Heavy

Jockey record on horse is F31155

Record on Undulating tracks (Like D’Patrick) is F3115

ZARDSKY

Record over 2m7f+ is 5PP4

Record in March/April/May reads 5P3P0

SHABRA CHARITY

Record at track reads 02241

All 3 career wins have come on Good/Good to Soft/Good to Yielding

Record over 2m7f is 155P

All 3 career wins have come going right-handed (0 from 9 going left-handed)

All 3 career wins have come on undulating tracks

FORESTSIDE

Record on Good to Soft/Good/Good to Firm is PF615P1

Record over 2m7f+ is 3723153

Record in 12+ fields is 0 from 17

Record going right-handed is 0 from 13 (compared to 3 from 15 going left-handed)

MISTER PHILSON

Record at track reads 3F2

Record wearing cheek-pieces is 2P22 (compared to U3F6 without them)

Record over 2m7f+ reads F22

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NTF Ulster National Summary…

Time to whittle down the shortlist…

I’m happy to drop ZARDSKY from the list as he falls short on Dosage, will probably have to lead the field along, it probably isn’t his time of year and he doesn’t really look a stayer.

SOLE WITNESS is also a Dosage Red runner (although not quite as bad as Zardsky), he doesn’t look like he has his ground and I also think he is probably on a mark that he is just struggling from. I’m happy to leave him out of calculations as well.

The fact FORESTSIDE has done all his winning in smaller fields and going the other way round would concern me a touch and for today I’m personally happy to swerve him.

MISTER PHILSON is a little difficult to assess being that he is yet to open his account under rules but it would be no surprise to me to see him win here, the trip and track should suit him.

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA is yet to race on anything other than soft or heavy under rules but connections have always felt that she will improve on better ground and there is no doubt this marathon trip will suit her as will the testing track.

SHABRA CHARITY has not really fired this season but she hasn’t had her ground and I would expect improvement now on better ground. She will handle the track perfectly well and is back to a mark only 1lb higher than previous winning mark (taking into account the 3lb claimer that day and the 7lb claimer that day she is actually able to run off a LOWER mark today).

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NTF Selection(s)

If I’m honest it is not a race I want to get too involved in but I’m happy to side with CARRIGEEN LECHUGA and SHABRA CHARITY each-way.

CARRIGEEN LECHUGA is a classy mare who will love this step up in trip and the demanding circuit, there could also still be more to be squeezed out of her current mark, especially over this sort of trip. If connections are correct in thinking that better ground will suit (I can’t see why it wouldn’t) then she is capable of running better than her odds suggest.

SHABRA CHARITY has been dropping down the weights whilst running in conditions that won’t have been ideal. A return to this track on the forecast ground from her current mark makes her an interesting outsider.

Best of luck if you are getting involved in the Ulster National and remember the above analysis can be utilised however you see fit to interpret it. It looks a tricky race but hopefully one of my own selections can, at least, run into a place.

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NTF Aintree Race Analysis Service: Doors closing today!

Many thanks to those of you that have already signed up for the Aintree service. For those of you that still want to join today will be your last chance. I will be closing the doors later today so that I can concentrate on providing subscribers with my in-depth analysis guides.

>>>Join NTF for the Aintree Grand National Festival

On sign up you will gain access to my 13 page NTF Stat-Attack guide (as well as, obviously, being part of the team for the 3 day Aintree Festival and receiving the exclusive NTF race analysis guides).

>>>Last chance to join NTF for Aintree Grand National week

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Ben (NTF)

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