There is Gold in the Well if you know where to look…
I’m always digging around in sire stats. It’s like an addiction for me. A lot of time it leads down some bland and uninteresting routes. Sometimes I spend a couple of hours and come out with nothing at the other end (except maybe bleary eyes and a sore head!). But I’m dedicated to my addiction and sometimes I strike Gold and this time I quite literally struck Gold! Well the sire GOLD WELL anyway. He is a relatively new stallion in the breeding sheds and his stats only go back to 2011 for the jumping game. However, I like what I see at this early stage and if I like what I see I’m likely to tell you guys about it.
GOLD WELL himself never actually made the racetrack but when you look at his profile on the Racing Post website you see ‘ unraced brother to Montjeu‘. A closer look tells us that’s a FULL brother to the mighty Montjeu, not one of these bit part brothers! Gold Well may not have raced but he sure as hell has solid genes and if early signs are anything to go with he ain’t afraid to pass those genes onto his offspring! Montjeu was a far superior flat sire than a jumps sire (even with the superstar Hurricane Fly as part of his brood) but Gold Well seems to be the opposite and is very much producing Jumpers rather than Flatsters (not a word, I know, but go with me!).
Here are his overall sire statistics for the National Hunt game to date…
*Figures sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database
GOLD WELL National Hunt runners since 2011…
45 wins from 325 starts | 14% S/R | +£27.54 BFLSP – Win & Place 121/325 | 37% S/R
As a group they are firing just a touch above market expectations, which is always handy.
It is a chunky enough set of figures to go rooting about in to see if there are any stand-out positive and negative areas so lets begin the digging… .
Jonjo O’Neill seems to have found the key to unlocking their talents…
12/52 | 23% S/R | +£28.80 BFLSP – Win & Place 29/52 | 56% S/R
That comes from a group of 5 horses, 4 of them being winners.
At the moment he seems to have them firing at their strongest on Left-Handed tracks…
10/36 | 28% S/R | +£35.16 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/36 | 58% S/R
Amongst his Gold Well 5 are the high class pair of Holywell & Johns Spirit, both winners at Cheltenham.
They seem at their best between trips of 17f & 20f but possibly start to struggle at 21f & further…
This wouldn’t be a nailed on live and die by sort of rule but they are over-performing at 17f to 20f and under-performing at 21f and further (based on market expectations)…
Record at 17f to 20f
22/108 | 20% S/R | +£42.91 BFLSP – Win & Place 48/108 | 44% S/R
Record at 21f and further
7/76 | 9% S/R | -£24.48 BFLSP – Win & Place 30/76 | 39% S/R
*They also strike at a 9% S/R over 16f but that is about what is expected.
The 2 Jonjo horses I mentioned earlier both have form over 21f & further so each horse has to, obviously, be taken on it’s individual merits, but if we are looking for real ‘sweet-spots’ then that 17f to 20f zone is certainly something to keep in mind. .
They don’t seem too keen on extremes of going (Heavy & Good to Firm)…
Good to Firm – 1/29 | 3% S/R | -£15.65 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/29 | 21% S/R
Good – 14/89 | 16% S/R | +£29.55 BFLSP – Win & Place 34/89 | 38% S/R
Good to Soft – 9/64 | 14% S/R | +£36.12 BFLSP – Win & Place 30/64 | 47% S/R
Soft – 17/99 | 17% S/R | +£3.36 BFLSP – Win & Place 39/99 | 39% S/R
Heavy – 4/44 | 9% S/R | -£25.84 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/44 | 25% S/R
The Heavy ground we have recently been experiencing (suffering!) won’t have necessarily been playing to their strengths and we should expect at least some improvement when we eventually get some drying ground (it will come, won’t it?!).
They handle sharp-undulating tracks such as Plumpton & Market Rasen with aplomb…
11/31 | 35% S/R | +£26.74 BFLSP – W&P 19/31 | 61% S/R
The Gold Well progeny are building up a tidy record on tracks such as Catterick, Market Rasen, Plumpton and Sedgefield and the lay-out of such venues obviously plays to their strengths. .
I would think it unlikely that GOLD WELL will become a household name like his illustrious brother Montjeu but he is well on his way to becoming a force in the National Hunt breeding sheds and he is a sire I’m going to be keeping a close eye on in the coming months and indeed years.
*All figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database
NTF discount on Paul Jones’s Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide…
Hopefully plenty of you acted upon the offer I sent out via email yesterday. If you missed it then here is the deal…
Paul Jones, author of the industry respected Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, has kindly offered all NTF readers a £3 discount when ordering this years book if quoting NTF in the promotional code section of the orders page. So by simply typing NTF into the box you will get the book for £11.95 instead of £14.95. That’s saving you the price of a pint (if you shop around a bit!!) or at least a coffee and a muffin at your local coffee shop! The book is now in it’s 15th year of publication (wow!) and is a must read for all National Hunt fans.
To order it simply go here – Weatherby’s Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide – and remember to drop the code NTF in the promotional code box before ordering to get your £3 discount. .
Today I’ll leave you on the Gold theme, from a band that need no introduction…