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NTF Kerry National Analysis – Start the Eagle Up!

A 3 mile slog through rain sodden heavy ground in the middle of September can only mean one thing; it’s Kerry National time!

18 runners are set to go to post to battle it out for the valuable £96400 (Euro) first prize and here on the Blog I’m going to tear the race apart using my usual in-depth NTF analysis techniques.

I’ll be looking at the race using my NTF extended trends analysis and NTF Dosage analysis as well providing you guys with the exclusive NTF pace map so we can see how the race is likely to be run and the shape the race will hopefully take.

So lets not hang about…

GUINNESS KERRY NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE A) (4yo+) Winner €96,400

NTF Extended Trends Analysis

1              15/15 were aged 6 – 9

2              14/15 ran within past 56 days

3              13/15 had 4+ previous NH victories

4              13/15 had at least 14 previous NH starts

5              13/15 were a 2nd or 3rd season chaser

6              13/15 had previously contested a Graded Chase

7              13/15 had previously recorded a top 3 finish at track or were making their track debut

8              13/14 had an OR of 140 or less

9              12/15 recorded a top 4 finish LTO

10           12/15 carried 11-3 or less to victory

11           12/15 had 2, 3 or 4 previous chase victories

12           12/15 had no more than 13 previous chase starts

13           12/15 recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 starts

…and this is how it looks when we apply it to today’s contestants…

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Tot
Fosters Cross

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/13
Alpine Eagle

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/13
Start Me Up

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

11/13
Campbonnais

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/13
Premier Dane

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/13
Jamsie Hall

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/13
Casey Top

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

10/13
Whodoyouthink

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

10/13
Wellforth

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

10/13
Caduceus

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

10/13
Our Victoria

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

10/13
King Ali

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

10/13
Save My Blushes

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

10/13
Themoonandsixpence

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

9/13
Quietly Fancied

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

9/13
Ponmeoath

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

9/13
*Shabra Charity

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

9/13
*Faltering Fullback

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

9/13
Questions Answered

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

8/13
Deal Done

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

N

7/13

You can see just how competitive this renewal is by the close proximity of the field on the trends front; it is unusual for so many to be so close on this method.

As is always the case, however, I will use the top end of the table as my short-list. This means our short-list is made up of FOSTERS CROSS, ALPINE EAGLE, START ME UP, CAMPBONNAIS, PREMIER DANE & JAMSIE HALL.

 

NTF Dosage Trends Analysis

DP          14/15 had 8 points or more in their DP

                13/15 had 12 points or more in their DP

               

DI            11/14 had a DI of 1.40 or below

                10/14 had a DI of 1.10 or below

               

CD          11/14 had a CD of 0.13 or below

                9/14 had a CD of -0.13 or below

               

DPA       (10/15) – DQ – 3 / 20+ – 5 / PATB – 2

Here is how are short-list stacks up once we apply the Dosage trends to them…

Start Me Up       1-0-10-9-2           20+         22           0.38        -0.50

Jamsie Hall          2-0-10-8-4           20+         24           0.41        -0.50

Alpine Eagle       6-1-10-2-3           DQ          22           1.20        0.23

Fosters Cross     3-1-8-4-0              /              16           1.00        0.19

Premier Dane    2-4-11-1-0           /              18           1.77        0.39

Campbonnais    1-2-13-0-0           /              16           1.46        0.25

Some relatively hefty pointers on the Dosage side for this staying handicap…

 

NTF Pace Maps

The NTF Pace maps will give you an indication of how the race is likely to be run and the preferred running styles of each runner.

Kerry National likely running styles
Kerry National Pace Map

The running styles of the previous 15 winners of this race has been – FR = 0 | CP = 9 | HU = 6 – This then gives me the colour coding for the Pace Map above.

Today’s field doesn’t appear to hold an out and out front-runner but I would expect one of CASEY TOP or QUIETLY FANCIED to go out and lead the pack along. WHODOYOUTHINK and SAVE MY BLUSHES are likely to be in close attendance, tracking the leaders.

ALPINE EAGLE, CADUCEUS, JAMSIE HALL and KING ALI are likely to be sitting out the back and delaying their challenge until much later on in the contest.

 

NTF Shortlist – Notable Trends

FOSTERS CROSS

Record at track – 3-P-P

Record on heavy ground – 3-3-2-1-2-P

Record over 3m+ – P-P

Record in Grade 1 or 2 contests – 0 wins from 17 attempts

Record when returning within 7 days – 1-2-8

Record in September – 3-1-P-P-1

ALPINE EAGLE

Record at track – 3

Record on heavy ground – N/A

Record at 3m+ – N/A

Record when returning within 31 – 60 days – 0-1-2-5

START ME UP

Record on heavy ground – 1-2-3-5-3-U-4-1-2-P-1

Record at 3m+ – P-4-7-1-3-5-U-P

Record with Davy Russell on-board – 2 wins from 11

Record in Grade 1 contests – P-P-P

Record in Grade 1 or 2 contests – 0 wins from 9 attempts

CAMPBONNAIS

Record at track – 1-3

Record on heavy ground – 0

Record at 3m+ – P-1-2

Record in fields of 16+ – 3 wins from 13 attempts

PREMIER DANE

Record on heavy ground – 8

Record at 3m+ – N/A

Record with Tom Scudamore on-board – 1-1

Record for David Pipe – 1-1-1

Record in fields of 12+ – 0 wins from 18 attempts

Record when returning within 16-30 days – 4 wins from 13 attempts

Record in September – 2-1

JAMSIE HALL

Record at track – 2

Record on heavy ground – 9-2-6-6

Record at 3m+ – 8-2-5

Record with Davy Condon on-board – 2 wins from 7 attempts

Record in fields of 16+ – 0 wins from 15 attempts

Record on Left-Handed tracks – 6-9-2-2

 

NTF Kerry National Summary…

Time to whittle down the short-list…

FOSTERS CROSS is the first to go from the short-list.  The fact he has been pulled up in his 2 attempts at this race is a big negative for me as is the fact he fails the first major trend on the extended trends analysis. His record in Grade 1 or 2 contests is also a major concern and I’m happy to pass him over today.

JAMSIE HALL is the next I want to punt off the list. He looks like he may well struggle on the heavy ground (all 3 rules wins have come on Good to Firm) and will potentially be unsuited by the hustle and bustle of the large field. He is another I’m happy to pass over.

PREMIER DANE has clearly found a new lust for life but I can’t have him on Heavy ground over 3 miles in a large field. His dosage figures suggest he may struggle to fully see out the trip and with ground and field size concerns thrown in I’ll give him a swerve today.

CAMPBONNAIS looks an interesting one but he is another I have ground concerns over. He has also been creeping up the weights without actually winning and also has Dosage negatives to overcome. Reluctantly he is passed over today.

That leaves us with 2 – ALPINE EAGLE and START ME UP.

 

NTF Selection(s)

In what is a tight race I’m happy to have both ALPINE EAGLE and START ME UP on my side.

ALPINE EAGLE looks to still hold plenty of untapped chasing potential and this step up to 3 miles could well bring about the required improvement needed to win this. Although yet to race on heavy ground he has some excellent form on soft conditions and I don’t see this test posing any problem. There are unknowns with him but I think he has the tools to answer the questions put to him today.

START ME UP appears, to my eye anyway, to have been saved for this contest and the return of Davy Russell in the saddle is very eye-catching indeed. He will handle the ground and will handle the trip although his record in Grade 1 contests is a bit sketchy this assignment looks much more like his cup of tea. He has a perfect Dosage score and can get involved in the business end of this contest.

Best of racing luck if you are getting involved in the Kerry National.

p.s. If you want to learn more about the Dosage Angle then simply sign up to the FREE NTF list by popping your name and email in the box at the top right of the Blog. You will be then be sent a link to download an array of FREE NTF guides including my ‘Intro to Dosage’ guide.

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

 

 

2 responses to “NTF Kerry National Analysis – Start the Eagle Up!”

  1. hi ben you do go very deep in your analysis but you are very very good at what you do …………. so just a question i dont fink ive got ur dosage angle index but u must have to be einstein to work that out please could you send me the intro thanks

    also cant wait for the jumps to kick off i always go in the ten to follow 1.000000 tote

    its a good competition but ive done ok over the years but never won out got pipped for a ten grand monthly prize once when i neede keen leader j j oneil to win and was beat by a 50/1 shot trained by p.hobbs lord of the hill i fink it was a bit ago

    any way kind regards russ

    Reply

    • Hi Russ

      Many thanks for your email.

      Have you signed up to my free NTF list? You can download the intro to Dosage guide when you sign up to the free list, just pop your name in the form at the top right of the site.

      I remember old Keen Leader, talented but a wee bit of a rogue!!

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

      Reply

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