Safe to say there are plenty of grown men and women counting down the sleeps till
Today in ‘NTF Festival Files’ we move on to the trainer who well and truly smashed the others out of the park last season; NICKY HENDERSON…
#Figures sourced from the excellent Proform database – Figures from the 2007 – 2012 Festivals
NTF Festival Files: Nicky Henderson
The bare figures…
15/193 | 8% S/R | +£19.10 BFLSP – Win & Place 54/193 | 28% S/R
The strike rate for Henderson probably isn’t as high as maybe expected but that can possibly be explained by the below-par Festivals of ’07 & ’08. His overall strike-rates at the past 6 festivals read 0% – 0% – 9% – 8% – 5% – 19% and in truth if he can get anywhere near what he achieved last season then he will be doing bloody good!
Statistically speaking (and using the market as a guide) Henderson has won pretty much bang on the number of races expected at the past 6 festivals i.e. as a whole he isn’t over or under-performing.
But what areas do the Henderson string excel at, where has he been struggling and can we zone in on any seriously profitable angles?
Let’s start digging…
Jockey bookings tell plenty…
10 of Henderson’s 15 recent festival winners have fallen the way of Barry Geraghty.
That is no real surprise to you I’m sure but lets take a look at the Hendo/BG axis along with 2 others that regularly ride for Hendo at the Festival….
Hederson/Geraghty – 10/66 | 15% S/R | +£16.67 BFLSP – Win & Place 19/66 | 29% S/R
Henderson/McCoy – 1/23 | 4% S/R | -£11.08 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/23| 35% S/R
Henderson/Tinkler – 0/21 | 0% S/R | -£21.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/21 | 24% S/R
I would expect Geraghty to be top of the pile, he is the yards number 1 and rightly so gets to pick most of the cream of the talent (exception maybe the JP McManus runners).
The McCoy record is a little bit surprising and he is marginally under-performing (taking the market as a guide); the partnership have had a few fancied runners (or at least single figured runners) beaten at recent festivals. The win & place figure of 35% is admittedly pretty decent so all is not completely lost.
Andrew Tinkler is in a position where by he scoffs up any scraps that Geraghty and McCoy don’t want… unfortunately they do seem to be just that; the scraps! None of them have been that well fancied and he has not been able to get any of them home in front.
Sticking with the jockey angle…
Geraghty on-board Last Time Out is a solid pointer…
So much so that of the 15 recent festival winners for Henderson 12 of them were ridden by Geraghty on their last start before the festival.
Again that isn’t a huge surprise, he is the regular rider for Hendo, but it is, at the very least, an interesting pointer. Here are the figures in full…
Henderson runner ridden by Geraghty LTO – 12/85 | 14% S/R | +£73.37 BFLSP – Win & Place 29/85 | 34% S/R
They clearly want their main man on top to road-test their Cheltenham hopefully on its final public run before the Festival.
Be wary of the Henderson runners returning from a 66 day+ break…
Henderson is generally a reliable trainer when it comes to his horses returning from a lengthy break, however, that hasn’t been the case at recent festivals…
Henderson runners DSLR 66 days+ – 0/46 | 0% S/R | -£46.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/46 | 13% S/R
More often than not they will be facing off against rivals that have had a run within that time frame and recently it is the ‘match-fit’ rivals that have been winning out.
Hmmmm… Bobs Worth, Simonsig, Grandouet….
A Non-Handicap race has been the warm up of choice for the Henderson winners…
14 of his 15 recent festival winners had their last start in a NON-HANDICAP contest.
Lets look at the 2 sets of figures…
Last run in a Handicap – 1/68 | 1% S/R | -£48.85 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/68 | 15% S/R
Last run in a Non-Handicap – 14/125 | 11% S/R | +£67.70 BFLSP – Win & Place 44/125 | 35% S/R
Now it isn’t as if he hasn’t had any Handicap winners at recent festivals. The split between Hcps & Non-Hcps is 4 (Handicap winners) and 11 (Non-Handicap winners). The facts are his runners coming in off the back of a run in a non-handicap have a much better chance of victory than those that ran in a handicap last time out. To add a bit of credence to that the ones that ran in a non-handicap LTO are slightly over-performing and the ones that ran in a handicap LTO are slightly under-performing.
Henderson winners coming in off a top 4 finish demand respect…
14 of the 15 Henderson winners finished in the top 4 on their final start before the Festival.
Wow! Shock horror I hear you cry! Despite this being of no surprise it is still worth taking a look at the figures…
Henderson runner with a top 4 finish LTO – 14/142 | 10% S/R | +£50.75 BFLSP – Win & Place 47/142 | 33% S/R
So no real shock with this one but what interests me is that of the 54 win & place horses from Henderson at recent festivals 47 of them finished in the top 4 LTO. It’s something, at the very least, to keep in the think tank.
Nicky Henderson – Cheltenham Festival: The Money Shot!
The Henderson string is clearly a powerful one and they are likely to be supported left, right and centre over the 4 days. I have, however, managed to find a tasty looking ‘Money Shot’ for us to get stuck into…
Taking all of my in-depth Proform searching into account I’ve come up with the following Henderson ‘Money Shot’…
Cheltenham Festival | Nicky Henderson | Non-Hcp race LTO | Ran within past 65 days | Top 4 finish LTO | Ridden by Barry Geraghty LTO
11/48 | 23% S/R | +£91.07 BFLSP – Win & Place 23/48 | 48% S/R
Pretty simple when you think about it!
*Figures for this article have been sourced from the brilliant Proform Professional Database.
Check out their website >> http://www.proformracing.com/
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