27 Mar

NTF Aintree Festival Files: Jonjo O’Neill – How to profit from Jonjo at Aintree…

Just over a week to go before the shenanigans start at Aintree for their 3 day Spring (?!) Festival.

Today in ‘NTF Aintree Festival Files’ I’m going to concentrate on a trainer who’s recent haul at the meeting includes a Grand National 1st, 2nd and 3rd; Jonjo O’Neill…

#Figures sourced from the excellent Proform database – Figures from the 2007 – 2012 Festivals

NTF Aintree Festival Files: Jonjo O’Neill

The bare figures…

8/55 | 15% S/R | +£51.46 BFLSP – Win & Place 22/55 | 40% S/R

A solid set of figures from Jonjo at the Grand National meeting and you don’t need me to tell you that those LSP figures are pretty healthy.

Statistically speaking (and using the market as a guide) Jonjo is over-performing with his string at Aintree and it’s fair to say he can sneak a few under the radar every now and again.

But what are his strong points at Aintree, where do the winners come from and where should we tread a bit more carefully?

Let’s start digging…

He holds a strong hand in the handicaps…

Since 2007 6 of O’Neill’s Aintree winner have come in the vastly competitive handicaps.

O’Neill Handicap runners at Aintree – 6/36 | 17% S/R | +£58.19 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/36 | 33% S/R

Jonjo has certainly become…em…clever over the years at producing his runners ripe and ready to fire in handicap races and it is no different at this Aintree meeting. He has clearly perfected the art of producing one for a big handicap with something up its sleeve and his handicap runners here deserve at least a 2nd glance from us.

Based on market expectations this sub-set of runners are over-performing and are well worthy of keeping in mind.

But that doesn’t mean we should ignore his Non-Handicap runners…

His Non-Handicap runners have a very healthy 53% Win & Place Strike-Rate.

It is not just the handicaps the Jonjo is capable of being competitive in and although the Win Strike-Rate does dip, along with the BFLSP figures, we shouldn’t completely write off his Non-Handicap runners…

O’Neill Non-Handicap runners at Aintree – 2/19 | 11% S/R | -£6.72 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/19 | 53%S/R

They return a level stakes loss but it is the Win & Place Strike-Rate that interests me and with a winner at 8/1 and placed horses at 6/1 & 16/1 there is every chance of nicking some each-way spoils in these races.

A P McCoy, unsurprisingly, is the top jock at Aintree for O’Neill…

Since 2007 6 of O’Neill’s Aintree winner have been ridden by the champ.

Clearly this won’t come as a huge surprise to any of you but the figures are strong and are well worth taking a look at…

O’Neill/McCoy Aintree runners – 6/29 | 21% S/R | +£34.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/29 | 52% S/R

The 52% Win & Place Strike-Rate is solid and the LSP figures are not to be sniffed at either.

Based on market expectations they are marginally over-performing and that’s interesting considering they are a powerful combo to have on your side.

O’Neill runners ridden by A P McCoy last time out also show up extremely well…

7 of the 8 recent Aintree winners for O’Neill were ridden by McCoy on their last start.

Again that maybe isn’t too surprising but Jonjo does use a fairly wide array of pilots and there could well be something in the fact that he wants McCoy on-board one of his Aintree hopefuls on their final ‘prep’ run before their April assignment.

O’Neill Aintree runners | McCoy on-board LTO – 7/26 | 27% S/R | +£62.10 BFLSP – Win & Place 14/26 | 54% S/R

A healthy set of figures to go to war with and although maybe a tad obvious it is a sub set that is marginally over-performing and winning more than their odds suggest.

The O’Neill runners that are near the front end of the market hold a strong hand…

7 of the 8 recent Aintree winners for O’Neill started in the first 5 of the betting.

In recent seasons the market has been a decent enough guide at Aintree for the O’Neill string and those that have sat near the head of the betting affairs have returned some healthy figures…

O’Neill Aintree runners | Top 5 in the betting – 7/33 | 21% | +£35.94 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/33 | 55% S/R

For those of you that like to approach your punting from this sort of angle the above is a handy little sub-angle to keep in your back pocket.

Jonjo O’Neill – Aintree Festival: The Money Shot!

Money-Shot time! It wasn’t that easy to find one that was really worthy of highlighting but I have come up with the following angle.

Taking all of my in-depth Proform searching into account I’ve come up with the following Jonjo ‘Money Shot’…

Jonjo O’Neill Aintree runners | Ridden by A P McCoy LTO | Top 5 in the market | Aged 6yo – 9yo

6/16 | 38% S/R | +£34.62 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/16 | 63% S/R

You won’t get many qualifiers and the last 2 seasons drew a blank (only 1 qualifier each year though) but the strike-rates are solid and it could be a tasty Money-Shot to keep in the locker over time.

*Figures for this article have been sourced from the brilliant Proform Professional Database.

Check out their website >> http://www.proformracing.com/

FREE NTF 2013/14 Cheltenham Festival Guide

If you are yet to download my own FREE NTF Guide looking at 4 horses to follow from the 2013 Cheltenham Festival then head to the following page and this exclusive guide can be yours to download and digest today –

>>>FREE NTF 2013 Cheltenham Festival Guide – 4 to follow for next season

Ben (NTF)