The Aintree Grand National meeting is now firmly on the horizon. I can tell this from the fact I’ve already received a couple of messages from long lost friends and relatives asking who is going to win the National?!?
Today in ‘NTF Aintree Festival Files’ I’m going to concentrate on a jockey who has ridden 11 winners at recent Aintree Festivals, a tally bettered only by Ruby Walsh; step forward Barry Geraghty…
#Figures sourced from the excellent Proform database – Figures from the 2007 – 2012 Festivals
NTF Aintree Festival Files: Barry Geraghty
The bare figures…
11/61 | 18% S/R | +£2.66 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/61 | 30% S/R
11 winners is a tidy tally from the Irishman and as mentioned this is only bettered at recent festivals by Ruby Walsh (17 winners).
Statistically speaking (and using the market as a guide) Geraghty is over-performing with his mounts at Aintree, even though he has the pick of the powerful Henderson string.
But what areas does he excel in at Aintree, where do most of his winners come from and where should we tread a bit more carefully with the Geraghty mounts?
Let’s start digging…
As his partnership with Henderson has flourished so has his Aintree record…
All 11 of his recent Aintree Festival winners have come in the past 3 seasons.
Now that’s not saying Geraghty was riding the track poorly in the 3 seasons previous to that but he maybe wasn’t quite getting the horses he is now getting since hooking up with Henderson full-time. Obviously he has a fairly large number of high-class equine talent to ride at the minute but he still has to make use of it and get them home in front and that’s exactly what he does.
Lets look at the 3 year split….
Geraghty Aintree rides 2007-09 – 0/16 | 0% S/R | -£16.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 2/16 | 13% S/R
Geraghty Aintree rides 20010-12 – 11/45 | 24% S/R | +£18.66 BFLSP – Win & Place 16/45 | 36% S/R
Once he got the pick of the Henderson string he grasped it with both hands and started firing in the winners. 10 of those 11 winners have come for Henderson and the pair are a potent partnership at this 3 day meeting.
Geraghty is a force in the Non-Handicap races but has struggled slightly in the Handicap sphere…
10 of his 11 recent Aintree festival winners have come in the top notch Non-Handicap races.
It is difficult for Geraghty to be on a well-handicapped horses at this stage of the season at a high profile meeting such as this, due in the main to the high profile yards he rides for. Generally speaking the handicapper will have a decent handle on the Henderson handicap runners come spring time and that makes it all the more difficult for Geraghty to be sitting on something that is ahead of the handicapper.
Lets look at the splits for his Handicap & Non-Handicap mounts…
Geraghty Non-Handicap mounts at Aintree – 10/38 | 26% S/R | +£4.72 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/38 | 32%S/R
Geraghty Handicap mounts at Aintree – 1/23 | 4% S/R | -£2.06 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/23 | 26%S/R
In fairness he isn’t really under-performing as such on his handicap rides but the split is quite a strong one and it is worth, at least, keeping in mind.
Geraghty holds a strong grip over the novice races…
7 of his recent Aintree winners have come in Novice events.
Again this probably comes from the strength of the Henderson Novices’ but they haven’t all been a Simonsig or a Sprinter Sacre so they all haven’t been point and shoot jobs. Geraghty is more than adept at giving confidence to a Novice and the figures back this up well at Aintree…
Geraghty Aintree novice rides – 7/15 | 47% S/R | +£14.06 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/15 | 53% S/R
The 47% Win Strike-Rate is very solid and the LSP figures are not to be sniffed at either.
Based on market expectations Geraghty is marginally over-performing and that’s interesting considering he has had a fairly strong book of rides at recent Aintree Festivals.
Geraghty is more than capable at getting his well supported horses home in front…
9 of his 11 recent Aintree Festival winners started in the top 3 of the market.
No surprise really but it always interests me when a little angle like this is over-performing (based on market expectations) and is producing a decent little profit.
Geraghty rides starting in first 3 in the market – 9/21 | 43% S/R | +£11.92 BFLSP – Win & Place 13/21 | 62% S/R
Barry Geraghty – Aintree Festival: The Money Shot!
Money-Shot time! There were a couple of angles I could have gone with for this money-shot but the one I settled on is very easy in it’s execution and, most importantly, fires in a solid strike-rate and healthy BFLSP figure.
Taking all of my in-depth Proform searching into account I’ve come up with the following Barry Geraghty ‘Money Shot’…
Barry Geraghty Aintree rides | Top 5 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO
10/18 | 56% S/R | +£35.86 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/18 | 61% S/R
Amazingly that very simple little angle provides us with 10 of his 11 recent Aintree Grand National Festival winners!
Hopefully a few of his Cheltenham runners turn up at Aintree this time around so we have a neat little Money-Shot to go to war with.
*Figures for this article have been sourced from the brilliant Proform Professional Database.
Check out their website >> http://www.proformracing.com/
NTF Aintree Race Analysis Service: JOIN TODAY!
It is now less than week until the tapes go up on the Aintree opener and with that in mind the doors to the NTF Aintree service are now open. Full details can be found at the following link (free guides can be downloaded on that page) –
On sign up you will gain access to my 13 page NTF Stat-Attack guide (as well as, obviously, being part of the team for the 3 day Aintree Festival and receiving the exclusive NTF analysis guides).