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Look to the French (FR) for a bit of Kempton Xmas cheer…

Why you should look to have a French (FR) Christmas (at Kempton anyway)…

Christmas time, Mistletoe and Wine

Children singing Christian rhyme

With logs on the fire and gifts in the tree

A time to rejoice in the good that we see

Yeah whatever Cliff! You can have that side of the festivities if you want but for us National Hunt fans this time of the year only means one thing…

King George time, Cue Card and Long Run

Will Mount Benbulben be down on his bum

With Al Ferof Jumping and Silviniaco chasing

Will Paul Nicholls be celebrating

Yeah that’s right Cliff, Christmas time means the epic 2 day Kempton King George meeting! As well as a stellar supporting cast from Wetherby, Chepstow, Leopardstown and various (numerous!!) other tracks.

All us National Hunt fans have to do on the 25th is smile, nod, down a few (a ton!) alcoholic beverages and let the booze drift us through to the 26th, the real meaning of Christmas time, the REAL reason we are happy and joyful on Christmas Day, or King George Eve as I’m sure most of us have christened it!

But what’s this French angle I’m alluding to in the title?

Well…

If you take a look at the following table and you will see there is one (Country of breeding) angle that stands head and shoulders above the rest at Xmas time around the sharp Kempton lay-out –

Horse Country

Runners

Winners

Win S/R

P/L Betfair

ROI Betfair

Win & Plc

Win & Plc S/R

FR

172

37

22%

+£244.75

142.29

68

40%

IRE

307

21

7%

-£201.20

-68.67

80

26%

GB

224

19

8%

-£68.67

-30.65

52

23%

USA

40

4

10%

-£10.26

-25.65

7

18%

GER

26

1

4%

-£6

-23.07

8

31%

UAE

2

0

0

-£2

-100

0

0%

AUS

2

0

0

-£2

-100

0

0%

BEL

1

0

0

-£1

-100

0

0%

NZ

2

0

0

-£2

-100

1

50%

*Figures sourced from the excellent Proform Professional Database – 2006 to 2012

*The rescheduled 2010 meeting which took place in January 2011 (remember that one? Our main pressie cruelly kept from us by the weather for a couple of weeks!!) has been included in the figures

It’s clear to see that the FRENCH BREDS (FR) love tackling Kempton Park at Xmas, sweeping the board with the most wins, best Strike Rate and the most profitable, indeed ONLY profitable, level stakes return. The LSP has been boosted somewhat by the win of ORIGINAL at BFSP of 190/1 but even if his figures are removed from the final total they would still be left with an impressive LSP of +£54.75; not too shabby in anyone’s book!

The man with the midas touch when it comes to these (FR) Kempton types is, perhaps unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson…

Take a look at his figures with his (FR) breds at the track for this specific meeting…

14 winners from 26 runners | 54% S/R | +£93.78 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/26 | 69% S/R

Wowzers! That’s pretty impressive by anyone’s standards! He knows how to handle these types and is clearly able to get them to peak at this meeting.

On the age front (all trainers) there is one group that stands out…

(FR) bred 6yo’s – 15/42 | 36% S/R | +£217.45 BFLSP – Win & Place 20/42 | 48% S/R

Are the (FR) runners at their physical peak on an ideal track at an ideal time of year? That is maybe a bit too much of a generalization but they are a ‘young’, sprightly and powerful group and come here intent on plundering as much loot as possible!

In truth it is hard to pinpoint exactly why a certain breeding portion of the racing population excel at different times of the year at certain tracks (like the (GER) runners providing healthy profits at the November Cheltenham meeting but dropping off markedly, with hurdlers at least, come the Festival in March) but the figures are there for all to see, they are not a fluke and there is enough of a sample size to make it worthwhile.

It could be that the (FR) types have the perfect mix of stamina and speed needed for this tight/flat track and the way they are nurtured in their early years has them more at their peak for this portion of the season than other types. The more traditionally bred (GB) & (IRE) types could be more suited to more galloping tests at this juncture.

It really isn’t abundantly clear for an exact explanation and I could be waaaay wide of the mark with my reasoning but the facts are there for all to see and the facts are that the French bred portion of the equine population take some pegging back at Kempton during the festive period.

MERRY XMAS to all NTF readers and I hope you all have a great time whatever you get up to! Just try and not be too hungover (on booze or food!!) to enjoy the Boxing day racing action!!

I’ll leave you today with the best Xmas tune ever…..EVER!!!

Take it away Steel Panther…

.

Ben (NTF)

Proform comes highly recommended by NTF

 

6 responses to “Look to the French (FR) for a bit of Kempton Xmas cheer…”

  1. Studying the form of the King George ive come to few interesting things that maybe give an answer why French breds excel in the Kempton meeting. Ive no data,if the meeting were mainly on Soft-Heavy ground, but ive found out that the French breds have strong bias towards deep ground wins. Bearing in mind the King George is with Dynaste( FR), Long Run (FR), Al Ferof (FR), Silviniaco Conti (FR) 4 strong statistical runners and also in accordance physically why they are better on Soft-Heavy, it is for me the choice to Lay favourite Cue Card ( Kings Theatre), who is from his breeding on Soft-Heavy poorer and also as horse a type that goes best on a stable surface using his size and rythm to travell well. On a deep ground his assets could be non existent.

    • Hi Ben

      Well thought out that, I like that theory and it could well be an explanation as to why the (FR) runners dominate the Kempton Xmas shenanigans.

      Good work

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  2. Been following your commonsense dosage method for the last couple of years.Cautious restraint coupled with optimism made MOUNTAINOUS a forgone each way conclusion. 3 bets in 2013 with two winners. Cant’t thank you enough for financing my (now paid for) spring break!

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