It’s been damn tough going for the jumping game since the completion of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Damn tough and damn bloody wet!
To be fair it’s not just the jumps game that has suffered, the flat haven’t quite managed to fully engage first gear either, it’s been THAT wet!
But that’s all about to change. The temperatures are rising and there are blue skies appearing (almost) all over the shop. Just in time for Grand National week!
Bring it on!
I’m delving deep into the three day festival on the full NTF service, covering around 15 races over the three days, culminating in the National itself.
I’ve already provided full members with some early National thoughts, with the figures landing on a tasty 50-1 shot, one who I feel should have prime conditions on Saturday.
Here on the free blog I’m going to share a selection of stats for the three day meeting, along with a couple of trainer mini-angles to help you profit from the action…
Aintree Grand National Festival stats
Aintree Non-Handicap contests (since 2012)…
There have been 84 Non-Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
- 83 of the 84 winners had between 2 & 8 starts in current season – those with 0-1 starts in season are 0/114 | those with 9+ starts in season are 1/17
- Those with 0 or 1 previous career starts/starts in the UK are 0/60
- 81 of the 84 winners had won 1 of their last 5 starts – Those without a win in 1 of their last 5 starts are 3/157
Now looking at just the GRADE 1 races…
There have been 58 Grade 1 races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
- 58/58 finished in the top two on one of their last three starts (53 had won 1 of their last 3)
- 56/58 had previously run at G1 or G2 level
- 55/58 had their last start within the past 45 days
- 54/58 ran at Class 1 level LTO – Those that didn’t run at Class 1 level LTO are 4/118
Now just the Aintree Handicap contests (since 2012)…
There have been 42 Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
- Those rated 129 or below are 0/91
- Horses carrying 10-02 & below are 1/120
- 41/42 had their last start at a UK track – Those that had their last start at an Irish track are 1/122
- 40/42 ran at G3 level or below last time out (2/127 for those stepping back from a run at G1 or G2 level last time out)
Jockeys (in handicaps)…
- Sam Twiston-Davies is 0/33
- Aidan Coleman is 0/28
- Noel Fehily is 0/21
Record of Cheltenham Gold Cup runners at Aintree…
Overall (on the strike-rate front) it’s a relatively patchy record…
5/32 | 16% S/R | +£23.47 BFLSP
But apply a few filters an suddenly we have a group of horses that we should be keeping a look out for…
Ran In Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out | WON 1 of last 3 starts | Aged 8yo-10yo
5/12 | 42% S/R | +£43.47 BFLSP
Limited numbers, yes, and far from spectacular but certainly an angle that’s worth keeping on the outskirts of our vision.
Aintree Trainer Mini-Angles
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Overall 6 year record – 23/144 | 16% S/R | +£51.67 BFLSP
6yo | 3-6 runs last 12 months | 4-13 career starts
14/31 | 45% S/R | +£119.40 BFLSP – W&P 17/31 | 55% S/R
5 qualifiers last year – 1st (4/9) | 1st (10/1) | 5th (9/4) | 4th (11/4) | 8th (14/1)
Henderson is the winning-most trainer at recent Aintree Grand National meetings, by some way in all honesty, and amazingly you can actually back him blind and pull in a profit. I’m not one for throwing a load of blind darts, however, and prefer a more refined approach to tackling trainers so the mini-angle highlighted above suits my methods, and my betting approach, much better.
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Overall 6 year record – 10/37 | 27% S/R | +£174.55 BFLSP
Class 1 races | Top 2 finish 1 of last 5 starts | 3-7 starts in season | DSLR 16-60 | Made career debut in a NH race (not on flat)
10/25 | 40% S/R | +£186.55 BFLSP – W&P 13/25 | 52% S/R
9 qualifiers last year – 5 winners at 16/1, 4/1, 50/1, 3/1 & 10/1
Tizzard’s record at this meeting has really stepped on in the last couple of seasons, with 8 of his 10 winners in the past 6 years coming in the last 2 years. He’s another you could back blind and pull in a profit but again I just prefer to dig a bit deeper and lessen the number of bullets I fire.
*Majority of stats sourced from Proform Professional database
Aintree wouldn’t be a meeting I attack as thoroughly from a stats perspective as I do the Cheltenham Festival but there are still plenty of worthwhile points to note and have firmly on your radar.
NTF Aintree Grand National meeting subscription service
Doors are now open for the NTF Aintree service and you can hook onto the main service for £15, allowing you full access to all races covered over the three days, as well as the in-depth race notes I produce for members post-meeting.
The Races covered by myself at the 2018 Aintree Grand National Festival will be…
- Day 1: Grade 1 Manifesto Novice Chase – Grade 1 Aintree Bowl Chase – Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle – Grade 3 Red Rum Handicap Chase
- Day 2: G3 Alderhey Handicap Hurdle – Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 Melling Chase – Grade 3 Topham Handicap Chase
- Day 3: Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase – Listed Handicap Chase – Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle – Grade 3 GRAND NATIONAL Handicap Chase
The most recent example of my members race analysis guides can be found below...
- NTF Irish National Analysis
Full trends analysis of the Irish National (Fairyhouse)