horse racing

Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 5th – 7th July

I’m still not convinced by City Of Troy and his suitability to 1m2f trips… in fact I’m not entirely convinced by him full stop!

Winning a 6-runner Eclipse on Saturday in workman like fashion doesn’t exactly shout ‘the best I’ve ever trained‘… especially when the man saying that is Aidan O’Brien!! 🤨

Sure, it was good to see City Of Troy dig deep when he had to… but given that one of his 5 opponents was his own pace-maker… and one of the others was trained by another member of the O’Brien mob, in the shape of the ‘not really having the kitchen sink thrown at him in the closing stages’ Al Riffa… then I’m just not having it… not yet anyway… 

To be fair I’m not even convinced the Derby form is going to be all that hot come the end of the season…

I’m not saying City Of Troy won’t turn out to be one of the best that Aidan O’Brien has trained… but right now it smacks of a bit of a hype job…

Time will tell though…

Anyway… it’s a discussion for another day… that’s not what these posts are for… the City Of Troy’s of this world will never make the ‘Handicap Sleeper Notes‘! (something would have gone seriously wrong with the career of City Of Troy if I end up highlighting him here, after he’s run an eye-catching 5th at Catterick on a Friday afternoon!! 🤣)

So enough with the Group 1 chat… let’s get down to business…

Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 5th – 7th July


📅 Friday 5th July

⭕ 135 Doncaster – 1m Class 5 Handicap

🏇 2nd – YOUNG FIRE

On a 17-run losing streak at present but he’s been knocking on the door recently (form of 2-4-2-3 last 4 starts and beaten <3L each run) and his current mark of OR 63 is a hefty 18lbs below his last winning mark (Aug 2023) and 33lbs below his peak winning mark. He showed last year that he can get the job done when he runs under his Prime Conditions (won 4-times in 2023) and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 96 or less | Good or softer (or AW) | fields of <12 | Feb-Oct | DSLR >10 & <71 = 9/21, 3p – all 9 career wins


⭕ 350 Doncaster – 5f Class 2 Handicap

Race Note: Track was suiting those held-up, with no front-runners managing to win on the day and only a couple of close to the pace runners winning…


Went from the front here, which is his usual running style, and front-runners were just not getting the job done at Doncaster this day… as such I’d be happy enough to mark this effort up a couple of pounds on the bare form… the 6yo is still on a very winnable mark at present – ran here off OR 81, 11lbs below his highest win mark – and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… 5f | OR <93 | C2 or less (race worth <11k) | DSLR <43 | Carrying 9-05 or less | Wearing a hood or NO Headgear = 412111132111011 (10/15, 2p – all 10 career wins)… conditions he has met with 4 times in his 13 starts this calendar year, returning a form line of… 4121 (2/4, 1p)…


Handicapped to be winning at present off OR 83 but all his turf wins have come on Good to Firm so this Good ground won’t have been bang ideal for him… this was also his 4th run at Doncaster and he never seems to run all that well at the track – form of 8396 (0/4, 1p) at Doncaster – so easy enough to forgive his 6.3L 8th of 9 here… he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he gets his PC… (Turf only) 5f | Good to Firm | July-Aug | OR 85 or less = 1911 (3/4 – all 3 turf wins)… the 9th came on one of his Doncaster starts…


⭕ 600 Beverley – 5f Class 4 Handicap

Race Note: The stalls were joined together between stalls 2 & 3 for this race…

so, stall 3 was in effect stall 5, meaning those draw 3+ were actually wider than their stall number suggested (possibly even higher than +2 as there was also an empty stall before stall 1)… this gave an advantage to stalls 1 & 2, who made full use of that advantage by coming home first and second…

*Image is a screenshot from the Racing TV coverage…

🏇 3rd – DIGITAL (stall 6)

Ruth Carr has had this one in decent form recently and this was a solid effort (and worth marking up a few pounds due to the wider draw caused by the stalls joining)… he ran here off OR 74, only 2lbs higher than his last win and 16lbs lower than his high win mark, and whilst I doubt he’ll get back to OR 90 territory he should be up to winning off or around OR 74, especially when meeting with his PC… OR 90 or less | race worth <17k | DSLR 7-56 | fields of <16 | NOT Heavy = 5/18, 7p – all 5 career wins

🏇 5th – KHABIB (stall 9)

Possibly at his absolute peak on the A/W (5 of 6 wins on the AW) but he’s got some decent form on turf as well and he’s another worth marking up a few pounds here, given he was parked in stall 9 (or 11 once you factor in the stall join)… he’s worth looking out for under his PC… C4 or less Hcps (worth <6k) | 5f | OR 77 or less | wearing CP’s | DSLR <43 = 6/16, 7p – all 6 career wins


⭕ 820 Beverley – 7.5f Class 6 Handicap


On a 22-race losing streak but he went close to breaking that at Ripon on his last start and he traveled smoothly into the home straight here before meeting a wall of horses in the final furlong and finding no way through to continue his forward momentum… there’s definite signs that a win is on the horizon and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 55 or less | C6 Hcps | June-Sept | G/F-Good-G/S | Wearing CP’s or a Hood | DSLR <21 = 831113 (3/6, 2p – all 3 career wins)



📅 Saturday 6th July

⭕ 548 Carlisle – 6f Class 5 Handicap


Won off a mark of OR 63 earlier in the season and already finds herself below that mark, running here off OR 62, and given she’s placed off as high as OR 67 it would be no surprise to see her fire in another win on coming starts off or around this OR 62 mark… I have PC for her as… OR 63 or less | 5f-6f Hcps | May-Dec | DSLR <21 = 4/13, 6p – all 4 career wins… and she’s worth looking out for on coming starts…


⭕ 648 Carlisle – 5f Class 6 Handicap


Generally a horse that starts to hit peak form once we turn into the second half of the year (all wins July or later) and that was evident again here, this being the 6yo’s best run of the season by a good way… he ran here off OR 46, 10lbs below his last and highest winning mark, so he has plenty to work with on that score, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 56 or less | C6 Hcps in June – October | *Straight 5f = 513041161 (4/9, 1p – all 4 career wins)*the Carlisle 5f is classed as straight on one of the databases I use as it’s a not quite a full bend they run round for the 5f track


⭕ 820 Carlisle – 1m Class 4 Handicap


The 5yo had been struggling a little since some decent efforts at the start of last summer… but the application of cheek-pieces here seemed to spark him to life here, and assuming they continue to work then he’s on a mark he should be more than capable winning from – ran here off OR 74, 5lbs below last and highest win mark and 9lbs below highest place mark – and he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he meets with his PC… OR 79 or less | C3 or less hcps | Good or softer | DSLR 21+ = 311173 (3/6, 2p – all 3 career wins)


Shorthand explanations…

PC = Prime Conditions

DSLR = Days Since Last Run

OR = Official Rating

Hcps = Handicaps

LTO = Last Time Out

CP’s = Cheek-Pieces

If you are looking for a decent tracker tool to add the above Handicap Sleepers to then I’d definitely recommend one of the following two… – £1 for 30-days access to GeeGeez Gold HERE>>> – 7-day free trial for NTF readers HERE>>>

That’s all for me today…

Remember to check out the weekly podcast I produce with me old mucker Tony Mac…

The Racing PodBlast>>>

Award nominated… only 20-minutes long… NO adverts and has the best jingles in town!

What more could you want! 😀😎

I’ll be back on here next week, with the next installment of my weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes

Cheers – Ben (NTF)

p.s. get all previous free NTF blog posts on the main menu page HERE>>>

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5 responses to “Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 5th – 7th July”

  1. What I would like is a written synopsis of the podblast. to listen for 20 minutes is too long for my attention span so a precis which can be read in 3 – 4 minutes would be perfect.

    • Hi Bernard

      Thanks for your comment…

      The reason we do a 20-minute podblast is for people who find the longer podcasts done by others too much of a stretch to listen to, those pods that maybe stretch to 45-minutes or 1-hour+ even…

      Unfortunately I don’t really have the time to be producing a written version of the podblast alongside my normal day to day analysis and betting… so unlikely a route we will be going down…

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

      • Must admit I enjoy the 20 minute format and you can brew a cuppa whilst listening to the genial banter and make notes as you go. There are no quick and easy solutions to finding winners but your podblast weighs up your personal pros and cons to weight your degrees of confidence.

  2. Thanks Ben for some more Handicap sleepers we had a nice result saturday with macrova on your podblast thank you BEN all the Best 🐴

    • Cheers William

      Yes, race panned out perfectly for Makarova, lovely result and there were some decent prices floating about for the mare 😎

      Thanks for listening 👍

      Ben (NTF)

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