Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 8th, 9th & 10th August
The latest NTF Handicap Sleeper Notes are in… and they’re brimming with runners who flashed just enough to catch my attention and suggest a win is brewing…
From poor draws and tardy starts to ground preferences and bumping into unexposed types, these subtle signals could be your edge in the coming weeks…
Before next week’s York Ebor meeting steals the spotlight, let’s dig into the under-the-radar performances from last weekend that will hopefully pay us some Handicap Sleeper dividends…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 8th, 9th & 10th August
📆 Friday 8th August
⭕ 5:05 Musselburgh – 7f Class 6 Amateur Jockeys Handicap
🏇 2nd – SANDRET
Worth marking this effort up a few pounds on the bare form, with stall 1 over 7-furlongs for a hold-up type always likely to be a tricky starting position for the 9yo, even more so when 7-furlongs is possible a shade on the short side these days for the Zebedee gelding… he finished the race off strongly when once the gaps appeared but the winner had flown by then and he could never land a serious blow… he’s handicapped to be winning off the mark of OR 63 he’s currently on (he went up 1lb from OR 62 for this effort), 4lbs below his highest winning handicap mark of OR 67, and Sam England should be able to find winnable openings for him in coming weeks… maybe those opportunities will be best away from a right-handed track, as he’s now 0/10, 2p when racing round a RH bend, and I have Prime Conditions for him as… OR 67 or less | C5 or less | LH or Straight tracks = 5/13, 4p – 5 of his 6 career wins…
💤
⭕ 2:00 Brighton – 5.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 6th – NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND
This 8yo was well-fancied for this after some solid efforts on recent starts, but he made a poor start here and was on the back foot from the off, which is far from ideal for one that’s better when he’s ridden more prominently… the signs from his runs prior to this have been that he’s on the verge of recording the tenth win of his busy career, and he’s worth looking out for running under his PC of… C4 or less Hcps worth 5k or less | June-Nov | OR <76 | DSLR <29 | G/F+ (or AW) = 7/32, 10p (7 of 9 career wins)…
💤
⭕ 3:30 Brighton – 6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – CHARLIE MASON
Likely just bumped into a horse that was a good way ahead of its mark – in the shape of the winner ANOTHER ABBOT – and one who’s trainer – Willie Haggas – has strong stats at Brighton (with similar types)… Charlie Mason also tends to be best at C5 level and below, with his form at C4+ level now reading 0/7, 1p… as such this run is likely a good way better than the bare level of form suggests… I have PC for him as… OR 68 or less | C5 or less Hcps | 6f | DSLR 25 or less = 3122311133 (4/10, 6p – all 4 career wins)… and a small drop in class would make him of plenty interest in the coming weeks…
💤
⭕ 6:15 Haydock – 1m6.5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – VAYNOR
The Charlie Hills yard has been in a bit of a funk the last couple of seasons, or at least his strike-rates have dipped below his usual standard and the winners are not coming quite as regularly as they used to… last year he ended the season with an overall strike-rate of 9.5% and so far this year he’s operating at an 8% S/R… he’s usually up at around the 15% sort of level… as such there’s plenty of well-handicapped types floating around his yard right now, with this 6yo son of Mastercrafstman being one of them… running here from a mark of OR 71, 11lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 82 and 13lbs below his peak mark of OR 84… there was, however, plenty more life in this run than on most of his recent starts and it would be disappointing if he wasn’t able to take advantage of his current mark sooner rather than later… most likely under the following PC… OR 82 or less | C4 or less Hcps over >1m2f | Flat or Slightly Und tracks (or AW) | June-Nov = 271114511 (5/9, 1p – all 5 career wins)…
💤
⭕ 7:05 Newmarket – 6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 7th – RAATEA
This handicap favoured those drawn low and that raced in the near side group, the first 3 home were drawn in stalls 1, 2 & 5 (and raced on the near side) and the first 5 home were all drawn in stalls 9 or less… RAATEA broke from stall 12 and was up against it from the off from that high starting position… he’s well handicapped at the minute, racing here off OR 77 and being dropped 2lbs to OR 75 for the run, which puts him 15lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 90… it’s been a while since he tasted victory but his last two stats have shown a bit of life, despite being drawn on the wrong side both times, and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 90 or less | 6f-6.5f Hcps on flat or slightly undulating tracks | Good+ (AW) | fields of 13 or less | June or later | DSLR 21+ = 1121 (3/4, 1p – all 3 handicap wins)… he’s on a career low mark now but the draw has been a legitimate excuse for his last two defeats and Julie Camacho can hopefully find winnable opportunities for the 8yo in the coming weeks…
📆 Saturday 9th August
⭕ 5:00 Redcar – 1m6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – BILLY BATHGATE
A solid effort from the 9yo and the well-punted short-priced winner – SPECTACULAR STYLE – just got first run on him, opening up a gap that Billy Bathgate couldn’t quite close down in the closing stages… he’s handicapped to be winning at present… running here off OR 51, 6lbs below his highest winning mark… and he’s worth keeping on the radar for getting conditions similar to this to attack… Flat/AW C6 Hcps over 1m5f+ | OR 57 or less | G/F (or AW) | DSLR <21 = 2131221 (3/7, 4p – all 3 career wins)…
💤
⭕ 6:42 Ayr – 1m2f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – POL ROGER
A solid run from the Michael Dods 5yo at a track he enjoys (Ayr form now reads 2/13, 6p) and he only found one of the unexposed 3yo’s in the field too good for him… he’s went up 2lbs to OR 72 for this run, and although that’s 2lbs above his last and highest win mark of OR 70 it’s still a mark he can be competitive off… he’s placed off marks as high as OR 80 & 86 and I’d have his ceiling at somewhere around OR 78, with his PC looking like… OR 78 or less | Flat LH tracks | G/S+ | fields of 12 or less = 28352211411 (4/11, 4p – all 4 career wins)…
📆 Sunday 10th August
⭕ 3:45 Haydock – 1m2.5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 4th – TITIAN
This 7yo has been in decent form this season but he maybe just found the Good to Firm ground a shade too quick for him here, he was travelling well enough when reaching the closing stages but didn’t seem to fully go through with his effort, possibly not wanting to completely let himself down on the fast surface… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 81 which is 5lbs below his peak winning mark of OR 86, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 86 or less | C3 or less Hcps | Good or softer | >1m1f & <1m3f | DSLR 70 or less = 19111 (4/5 – all 4 Hcp wins)…
💤
💤
Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
The Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a huge portion of my own private notes that I dig into daily over the summer months…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members gain exclusive access to…
The horses covered in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss them when they appear on the racetrack and meet with their Prime Conditions…
You can, of course, add them to your own tracker tool… if you don’t yet use one then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a try…
HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial for NTF readers)
GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
Many thanks to those of you that have already downloaded my Glorious Goodwood Notes guide…
If you still want it you can get it HERE or by clicking the image at the bottom of this blog post…
Including in this 13-page guide…
52 horses analysed with pinpoint precision
Prime conditions flagged for certain runners
Next Time Out angles & race-specific pointers
Trainer stats and draw bias insights
Badly drawn horses to follow (the real hidden gems!)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. get all previous free NTF blog posts on the main menu page HERE>>>
Hi Ben, I see you recommend Proform. It’s expensive, so I wondered what it can offer that Geegeez doesn’t?
Cheers
Lester
Hi Lester
I’d say one of the main benefits to Proform is that you can pick up things like in-running odds and also dig into running styles on the system builder function… I also like to use the Proform Speed Figures, I’ve always found they’ve been a reliable gauge of how a horse ran last time out/under certain conditions…
I use various databases for various different things so it all depends on what sort of time you have available to dig into stats and such like… GeeGeez is an excellent all round one, same with HorseRaceBase… Proform is a fantastic piece of kit but I guess to justify the price level you need to have the available spare time to properly dig into it so that you get the best value from it…
That’s how I see things anyway 👍
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Thanks Ben, much appreciated 🙏🏻
For other readers, the last horse is Titian, not Titan if you’re adding it to your horses to follow
Great spot Malcolm, many thanks 👍
Changed that to the proper name now in the blog post 🤓
I always give the posts a couple of scans over to make sure nothing is obviously spelled wrong… but reckon I could have read this post about 100 times and still not clocked I’d put ‘Titan’ and not ‘Titian’?!? 🙈🙈
Cheers – Ben (NTF)