Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 26th, 27th & 28th September
Time for the latest set of NTF Handicap Sleeper Notes from the weekend of action that has just slid itself snugly into the form book…
Five horses for you to slip in your notebooks or trackers, as we start motoring towards the climax of the 2025 Flat season…
I’ve also news on the latest offering from the guys over at GeeGeez.co.uk at the bottom of this post, as they open the doors on their heavily discounted GeeGeez Gold winter season ticket…
First though, here’s the latest Handicap Sleepers Notes…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 26th, 27th & 28th September
📆 Friday 26th September
⭕ 5:40 Haydock – 1m6f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 9th – ALPINE STROLL
The 7yo came into this off a convincing win at Bath 13-days previous but he tends to be best when he’s able to grab the lead in his races, something he wasn’t quite able to do in this one… he possibly also isn’t a huge fan of Haydock either, with his form at the track now reading… 960 (0/3, 0p)… he’s still on a winnable mark right now, running here off OR 65, 8lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 73, and he’s worth keeping on the radar as this time of the year does represent his prime months… I have his PC as… OR 73 or less | C4 or less Turf Hcps | Flat-Slightly Und tracks | June – Oct | DSLR 14-42 = 1647131121 (5/10, 2p – all 5 career wins)…
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📆 Saturday 27th September
⭕ 2:05 Haydock – 5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 7th – LETHAL NYMPH
This sprint favoured those drawn high, with the first 4 home drawn in stalls 10, 9, 8 & 7 (the 4 highest stalls)… LETHAL NYMPH was breaking from stall 3 and he was stuck on the outer and never able to properly get involved… the flat Haydock track possibly isn’t 100% to his liking either as he’s now 0/8, 2p on flat tracks, with all his wins coming on tracks with some level of undulations… this race was possibly on the ‘hot’ side for him as well, with his record in races worth 20k+ now reading 0/13, 4p (this was worth 25.7k to the winner)… all in all it’s easy to forgive this 10L 7th of 10 defeat and he’s worth keeping on the radar whilst he’s still on a winnable mark… I have PC for him as… OR 89 or less | 5f-6f | Races worth 20k or less | DSLR 15+ | Slightly Und/Und tracks (or AW) = 1236031111 (5/10, 3p – all 5 career wins)… we can maybe be a little flexible on the DSLR filter as he has run well a few times off shorter breaks…
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⭕ 5:55 Newmarket – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 2nd – ZOULU CHIEF
This was the third placed effort in a row from the Heather Main trained 4yo and he’s been posting some decent figures since his gelding op over the summer… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 82, 4lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 86 (he went up 1lb to OR 83 for this run)… and he looks capable of scoring before the season is out, providing connections can keep finding decent ground for him to race on… he’s worth looking out for under his PC of… OR 86 or less | Good+ | 6f-7f | C2 or less | DSLR 42 or less = 236111 (3/6, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 3:25 Ripon – 6f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 5th – SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
The far side wasn’t the place to be this day at Ripon and Grant Tuer’s 5yo was always going to have a tricky task from stall 1, a task made even trickier by her jockey deciding to go it alone on the far side… with that in mind her 3.2L 5th of 12 is an extremely commendable effort and firmly suggests that her current handicap mark of OR 90 (went down 2lbs from OR 92 for this run) makes her a player when she gets her Prime Conditions… those Prime Conditions being a relatively simple… Handicaps | OR 93 or less = 51112511313 (6/11, 3p – all 6 career wins)…
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📆 Sunday 28th September
⭕ 5:25 Ffos Las – 7.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 7th – AUTUMN FESTIVAL
Ed De Giles is yet to get a win into this 6yo in 24-starts (since he moved from David O’Meara) and it was surprising that he started as 11/4 fav here as he now 028, 6p on Left-Handed tracks and he seems a horse that really needs a Right-Handed or Straight track to be running to his best… something that may also explain why he’s 0/24 for Ed Giles, as 18 of his starts for the trainer have come going Left-Handed (his record for De Giles on a LH/Straight track reads 0/6, 3p)… the long barren spell out of the winners enclosure has, naturally, seen his mark plummet and the mark of OR 53 he ran off here is a whopping 38lbs below his peak mark of OR 91, 35lbs below his high win mark of OR 88 and 29lbs below his last win mark of OR 82… as such it’s not hard to say he’s ‘well-handicapped on his best form’… it’s unlikely he’ll reach those marks in the high 80’s/low 90’s again but he has shown glimpses of form this season and I’d be interested in backing him if meeting with his Prime Conditions of… OR 88 or less | 7f-1m on a RH or Straight Turf track | Race worth 11k or less = 1702111112211 (8/13, 3p – all 8 career wins)… he’d maybe also be worth considering on the A/W if the other conditions are met…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
N/R = Non-Runner
AW = All-Weather
Und = Undulating
CD – Course & Distance
The Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the NTF blog form a large portion of my own private notes, notes I dig into on a daily basis over the spring, summer and autumn months, looking for profitable plays that the wider betting market has overlooked…
They are also my starting point for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets, info that NTF Members gain exclusive access to via the full NTF Members package (end of season offer available here>>>)…
In other news…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
You can see all previous NTF Blog posts HERE>>>
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