Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 19th, 20th & 21st September
Plenty of top-class action at Ayr’s Gold Cup Festival last week… and it was a meeting dominated by a certain Jim Goldie… both in terms of winners and by number of runners…
‘Big Jim’ is never scared to throw multiple runners at a race, it’s a regular ploy of his, and it was a ploy that paid off handsomely last week at Ayr… with the Lanarkshire based training pulling in the following stats over the 3-days…
🔢 6/33 | 18% S/R | +£40.74 BFLSP – W&P 12/33 | 36% S/R
38% above expectation
Big Jim threw plenty of darts at the meeting and he was rewarded with a healthy number of winners and placed returns… indeed it was the most dominant display at the meeting since Richard Fahey banged in a whopping EIGHT winners over the 3-days in 2015…
Given the numbers that Jim Goldie sends to this meeting, I wanted to see if there was anything worthy of our attention when the runners appear on the track next time out… which is how I uncovered the following…
📊 Jim Goldie | Scottish and Yorkshire tracks | horses aged 3yo-7yo | DSLR 20 or less | Ran at the Ayr Gold Cup Festival LTO
🔢 (since 2020) 15/55 | 27% S/R | +£172.05 BFLSP – W&P 21/55 | 38% S/R
90% above expectation
That’s the good news… there is a potential way for us to profit from Jim Goldie and his Ayr Gold Cup Meeting runners next time out…
The bad news is that there have been EIGHT qualifiers on the angle already!?! SIX of them running again at the meeting itself… with two of them winning…
🥇 PENELOPE’S SISTER – 3/1 winner on Friday (4.30 BFSLP)
🥇 MIDNIGHT LION – 25/1 winner on Saturday (32.95 BFSP)
…but there’s still plenty time for more of his Ayr Gold Cup Festival squad to appear over the next few weeks… and I’ve got the angle plugged in so that I’ll get notified of any qualifiers and I’ll be keeping a check to see if any of them look worthy of playing… there’s been a few hitting the mark at big prices on this ‘angle’, so the potential of a decent return is certainly there with this sub-set of the Jim Goldie army…
And there’s more ‘Big Jim’ action for you in the latest set of NTF ‘Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 19th, 20th & 21st September
📆 Friday 19th September
⭕ 3:40 Ayr – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Ayr Bronze Cup)
🏇 9th – WOBWOBWOB
The 7yo made a bit of a scrappy start here and that just had him a bit further back than he would have preferred in the early stages of this and out of his more accustomed midfield/tracking leaders running position… as such his 3.7L 9th of 25 reads better than the bare finishing position suggests and he’s a horse that still looks to be in form at present… he was running here off OR 81, 6lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 87 (he went down 1lb to OR 80 for this run), so he’s handicapped to be winning right now, and September to October is often the time to catch him, with 4 of his 6 career wins coming at this time of the season… he’s worth looking out for on coming starts when getting his Prime Conditions to shoot for… OR 87 or less | Handicaps in May-Oct on LH or Straight tracks | Good or softer ground | DSLR 14-63 = 6/16, 6p – all 6 career wins…
🏇 16th – MANILA SCOUSE
Those drawn 17+ in the Bronze Cup struggled to make any impact in this race… the best finisher was AZURE ZAIN in 11th, followed by this lad in 16th… as such it’s easy to forgive this down the field effort from the Tim Easterby trained 6yo… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 82, 1lb below his highest win mark (he went down a handy 2lbs to OR 80 for this effort)… and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 83 or less | June-Oct | DSLR 21 or less = 6/15, 5p – all 6 career wins…
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⭕ 5:20 Ayr – 1m5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 7th – ANNANDALE
Jim Goldie’s 7yo came into this off the back of a CD win on his last outing and was also on a mark he’s more than capable winning from… running here off OR 64, 19lbs below his highest winning mark and just 2lbs above his winning mark from LTO… he is, however, a much better horse in smaller fields than the 13-runner field he faced here, with his form in fields of 12+ now reading – 0/15, 0p – compared to his form of – 8/40, 4p – in fields of 11 or less… his hold up running style was also a negative in this race, with the first 2 home ‘leading’ or ‘prominent’ throughout, indeed 3 of the first 4 home were ‘leading’ or ‘tracking the leaders’… he tends to keep his form into the autumn and early winter months and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 83 or less | 1m-1m6f on a LH or straight track | fields of 11 or less | DSLR 7-42 = 8/15 – all 8 career wins…
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📆 Saturday 20th September
⭕ 2:25 Ayr – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Ayr Silver Cup)
🏇 9th – LORD BERTIE
David O’Meara definitely has a well-handicapped type on his hands right now, with the 5yo running here off OR 85 and going down 3lbs to OR 82 off the back of this run, putting him 13lbs below his peak rating and 9lbs below his highest handicap place mark (he’s yet to win a handicap)… but conditions in this contest were not really suitable for him… he’s now 0/6, 0p at C2 level… 0/2, 0p over 6f… and 0/8, 1p in fields of 12+… given those 3 negatives for him on the conditions front I’d actually view this 4.9L 9th of 25 as a reasonable effort from the Wootton Bassett gelding… O’Meara will get wins into him before too long and he’s worth looking out for getting his PC of… OR 91 or less | C3 or less | G/S or softer | fields of 11 or less | Aug-Oct = 02111 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)… we can possibly be flexible with a couple of the conditions now he’s with a new yard…
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⭕ 4:40 Ayr – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 4th – BEAUTY CHOICE
Worth marking this effort up a little on the bare level of the performance as the 8yo is a much better horse (on turf) when racing on tracks with undulations… with his form on flat tracks such as Ayr now reading… 0/10, 2p… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 74, just 1lbs above his last winning mark of OR 73 and 5lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 79… and he’s worth looking out for under his PC of… OR 79 or less | C4 or less | 6f-7f on tracks with undulations (or the AW) | DSLR 21-42 = 7/17, 6p – all 7 career wins… we can maybe be a little flexible on the DSLR parameters…
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⭕ 5:15 Ayr – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – ROCK MELODY
This Jim Goldie trained 5yo mare had her PC to shoot for here… OR 81 or less | C3 or less (<£13k) | 5f-7f | Good-G/S-Soft (or AW) | June-Oct | DSLR 7-25 = 3471714121101 (6/13, 1p – 6 of 7 career wins)… but her wide draw (stall 10 of 12, adjusted for N/R’s) and hold-up running style were a negative in this race… with the two that finished ahead of her drawn in stall 7 & 4 (again, adjusted for N/R’s) and racing prominent/front-running and close to pace/midfield… it was still a solid effort from ROCK MELODY and she’s currently on a winnable mark and looks primed to be landing the eighth win of her career before too long…
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⭕ 5:20 Chester – 1m2.5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 4th – HE’S A GENTLEMAN
The ground had long disappeared for this 6yo by the time the final race of the card rolled round, with the Heavy ground proving to be highly unsuitable for him and his form on Soft and Heavy now reading… 0/5, 1p… the race was probably a bit too hot for him as well, with his record in races worth >6k to the winner (this was worth 10k) now showing as… 0/21, 4p… he is handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 73, 1lb below his last winning mark of OR 74 and 6lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 77 (he was dropped 2lbs to OR 71 off the back of this effort)… and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 77 or less | LH Hcps worth 6k or less | G/S or quicker (or the AW) | DSLR 14-30 = 1481221213221 (5/13, 6p – all 5 career wins)…
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📆 Sunday 21st September
⭕ 4:13 Hamilton – 1m1f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 5th – HARSWELL DUKE
Liam Bailey’s 7yo will have needed this run to sharpen him up… this was his first run for 31-days and his record off breaks of 21-days or more now reads… 0/20, 1p… and he’s much better with a run under his belt… he’s not won since landing the Spring Mile back in 2023 but as a result of that he’s extremely well-handicapped on his best form… running here off OR 63, which is a hefty 20lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 83, and he has shown glimpses this summer that he’s still got enough ability to be winning in the C5 & C6 levels he’s currently tackling, especially now the ground has come right for him… with all 4 of his previous wins coming on Soft or Heavy… he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR <84 | Heavy-Soft | DSLR 5-20 | Apr-Oct = 295223771111 (4/12, 4p – all 4 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
N/R = Non-Runner
AW = All-Weather
Und = Undulating
CD – Course & Distance
The Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a large portion of my own private notes, notes I dig into on a daily basis over the spring, summer and autumn months, looking for profitable plays that the wider betting market has overlooked…
They are also my primary starting point for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that NTF Members gain exclusive access to via the full NTF Members package (end of season offer available here>>>)…
The horses covered in these free posts are highlighted to full NTF Members, to ensure they don’t miss any of them when they appear on track and meet with their Prime Conditions…
In other news…
Most of you should have downloaded the FREE Guide that Matt Bisogno over at GeeGeez released yesterday…
If you are yet to pick it up then grab it on the following link before it’s gone for good…
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Three simple, tried and tested systems that have produced a whopping +763 points profit over the jumps…
Matt will have some other great FREE content available shortly, for those that download the ‘Back To The Future’ guide… so it’s well worth your time picking up the free guide whilst it’s still available…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
You can see all previous NTF Blog posts HERE>>>
Thanks for sharing Ben, your advice has been good thus far!
Cheers Dave, much appreciated 😎
Ben (NTF)