Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 18th, 19th & 20th July
Time for the next set of ‘Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes‘… with eight horses and their Prime Conditions highlighted below, all who ran last weekend and all who showed something to me that suggests they could be winning shortly…
There possibly won’t be any notes for next week as my attention will firmly be on the Glorious Goodwood action that starts next Tuesday (29th July)…
I’ll have some FREE analysis for Glorious Goodwood, as well as opening up the doors to the full NTF members service for those that want to hook up just for the Glorious Goodwood action, and by far and away the BEST place to keep up to date with all that is by joining the FREE NTF List…
Which you can do on the following link…
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Now for this week’s ‘Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 18th, 19th & 20th July
📆 Friday 18th July
⭕ 5:35 Haydock – 7f Class 5 Fillies Handicap
🏇 4th – CYPRIOT DIASPORA
A solid effort from the 4yo here, who maybe just found the Good ground a shade on the quick side for her, with her 3 wins to date coming on Good to Soft (X2) & Soft (X1) and her form on Good or quicker now reading 0/7, 0p… she’s shown solid form on her last 2 starts and she’s on a mark she’s able to win off, running here off OR 64 and going down 1lb to OR 63 for the effort, putting her 8lbs below her last and highest winning mark of OR 71, and she’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 71 or less | C5 or less Hcps | Good to Soft or softer = 292212116 (3/9, 4p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 6:35 Hamilton – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Scottish Stewards Cup)
🏇 10th – EYE OF DUBAI
This Havana Grey gelding has been struggling with his handicap mark this season, off the back of a solid 3yo season, but he was running off his last handicap winning mark of OR 87 in this and he’s one to start considering going forward from this run now the handicapper has begun relenting (went down another 2lbs for this run to OR 85)… things weren’t all that ideal for him in this contest as he was drawn in stall 13 and the race played in favour of the bottom half of the draw (first 3 home were drawn in stalls 3, 5 & 6 and 5 of the first 6 home were drawn 7 or below) and the Good ground would likely have been a shade on the quick side for him (he’s now 0/5, 1p on Good) so his 4.9L 10th of 14 is worth upgrading a little on the bare form… he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 87 or less | G/S or softer = 133133122 (3/9, 5p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 6:45 Pontefract – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – MUDAMER
Geoffrey Harker’s 6yo was probably a shade unlucky not to finish even closer than he did in this 1-mile handicap as he found himself caught in a little pocket as they turned into the straight, and he just had to sit and wait for a little longer than ideal before his jockey could fully press go… he was, however, comfortably clear of the rest come the line and this was another fine effort to add to his seasonal tally… he was running here off OR 76, 7lbs below his last and highest winning handicap mark of OR 83, and he’s been showing plenty signs that he’s ready to break his 14-race losing streak… he’s currently in his prime months of July & August and he’s worth looking out for under the following… C4 or less | OR 87 or less | July-Aug | DSLR 14-28 = 3111 (3/4, 1p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 7:20 Pontefract – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 6th – LITTLE TED
This 8yo did have his PC to shoot for here… C6 Turf | May-Aug | OR 63 or less | fields of 9 or less = 8/15, 1p – all 8 turf wins… but he was drawn widest of all in stall 7 and his hold-up running style can be tricky to pull off at Pontefract (he’s now 0/5, 1p at the track)… as such it’s easy to forgive him this effort and he’s worth keeping on the radar whilst he remains on a winnable mark, running here off OR 56, 7lbs below his highest win mark and just 2lbs above his last winning mark…
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📆 Saturday 19th July
⭕ 3:55 Ripon – 1m4f Class 2 Handicap (Ripon Bell-Ringer Handicap)
🏇 3rd – FOX JOURNEY
This was the 5yo’s third start for Kevin Ryan since he moved from the Michael Stoute yard at the end of last season, but they’ve been bashing away with him in Class 2’s on all 3 starts and the signs are that he just isn’t up to the level, with his C2 form now reading… 0/10, 2p… the upside of running him in these races, however, is that it’s making it easy for the handicapper to release him back down the handicap, with the 5yo running here off OR 88, 3lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 91, and he went down a further 2lb for this effort to OR 86… that puts him on a very workable mark now and he’s worth looking out for under the following… C3 or less Hcps | 1m2f-1m4f | OR 91 or less = 1141 (3/4 – all 3 career wins)… he should be able to show plenty more when meeting with those Prime Conditions…
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⭕ 5:38 Ripon – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 3rd – IDEAL GUEST
The switch back to 6f wasn’t ideal for this 6yo, with his form over trips shorter than 7f now reading 0/13, 3p, and it was no surprise to see him doing his best work inside the final furlong… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 59, 8lbs below his last winning mark and 11lbs below his highest winning mark (and went down 1lb to OR 58 for this run), and a step back up to 7f and the following PC would make him of interest… OR 70 or less | 7f turf Hcps | fields of 10 or less | June-Oct = 2113751211 (5/10, 2p – all 5 career wins)…
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⭕ 9:00 Haydock – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – MERSEA
This Born To Sea mare is back down to a winnable mark again… running here off OR 65, 3lbs below her last winning mark and 8lbs below her highest winning mark… and she posted a solid effort under her Prime Conditions… OR 73 or less | Straight track | Good or quicker (or AW) | Feb-Aug = 2151111325 (5/10, 3p – all 5 career wins)… she’s worth keeping on the radar for a similar opportunity in the coming weeks…
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📆 Sunday 20th July
⭕ 5:45 Redcar – 6f Class 6 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 1st – HOLBACHE
The 7yo won this cosily enough and he should still have a bit to play with on the handicapping front despite the rise he’ll receive for this win… running here off OR 58, 8lbs below his peak winning mark of OR 66… and a similar race under his PC could also be his for the taking, his PC being… OR 66 or less | Hcps worth 4k or less | July-Nov | DSLR 42 or less | NOT Tapeta = 1141311137111 (9/13, 1p – all 9 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
The Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a major portion of my own private notes for the flat game…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members gain exclusive access to…
The horses covered in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss them when they appear on the racetrack under their Prime Conditions…
You can also add them to your own tracker tool… if you don’t yet use one then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a try…
HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial for NTF readers)
GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
That’s all from me today… I’m off to get stuck into the behind the scenes work for my 2025 Glorious Goodwood analysis…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. get all previous free NTF blog posts on the main menu page HERE>>>
p.p.s I’ll likely have some free Glorious Goodwood analysis available for the meeting, but I’m not sure if that will be here on the blog or just kept to email only analysis, via the FREE NTF mailing list… so, to guarantee you get that analysis it’s definitely best to make sure you are on the FREE NTF List>>>
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