Despite the fact I am still very much focused on all things National Hunt I will be taking a (very) small deviation onto the flat for today’s Blog post.
I have recently been locked deep in research in my trusted Proform database in search of profitable angles for the forthcoming *NTF 2012 Flat service. Whilst ploughing through the figures I unearthed the following simple to track gem –
Figures are from the past 3 seasons and sourced from the excellent ProForm database
P Smullen/D Weld runners | Irish tracks | 1m2f+ | ISP 10/1 or less | Ran within past 56 days
53/182 | 29% S/R | +£99.17 BFLSP (+£63.75 ISP) | BFROI +54% – Win & Place 86/182 | 47% S/R
A simple yet mightily effective mini angle.
Here is the breakdown by year –
2011 – 20/58 | 34% S/R | +£63.82 BFLSP (+£40.56 ISP) | BFROI +110% – Win & Place 30/58 | 52% S/R
2010 – 12/51 | 24% S/R | +£4.54 BFLSP (+£1.11 ISP) | BFROI +9% – Win & Place 25/51 | 49% S/R
2009 – 21/73 | 29% S/R | +£30.81 BFLSP (+£22.09 ISP) | BFROI +42% – Win & Place 31/73 | 42% S/R
A tasty little breakdown and despite 2010 not reaching the heights of the other seasons it still returned a profit and fired in a decent strike-rate.
I must admit I wouldn’t have expected this angle to be so profitable. Smullen is a name jockey, he has finished 2nd – 1st – 2nd in the Irish jockey’s championship in the 3 seasons above. Weld is a name trainer, he has finished 2nd – 2nd – 3rd in the Irish trainers championship in the 3 seasons above. In essence they are an obvious pairing, however, the above angle tells us that under certain circumstances it pays (and pays well!) to follow them.
Are punters under-betting the pairing in the qualifying circumstances?
Are the likes of Aidan O’Brien being over-bet allowing the Weld/Smullen runners to go off at bigger odds than they should?
There could be a number of reasons but the facts are this looks a profitable mini-angle to follow for the forthcoming flat season.
It’s clear that betting at Betfair SP enhances profits but it is important to remember that the angle looks at Industry SP for the 10/1 or less figure. A horse can be less than 10-1 with traditional bookies but over 10-1 on Betfair. That doesn’t effect the angle though, it simply puts more cash in our pockets!
Incidentally the first 2012 qualifier on the angle is today at Cork –
4.00 Cork – 3. MALAYAN MIST
Lets hope that 2012 continues in the same profitable curve as the previous 3 seasons….
*To keep updated on the NTF 2012 Flat service please join the free NTF mailing list by entering your details in the form at the top right of the site.
NTF Aintree Grand National service
As I did at Cheltenham I have opened up a limited number of spaces on my National Hunt service for those of you that want to join NTF just for the 3 day Aintree Festival. When you subscribe you will also be able to download my ‘NTF Aintree Festival Stat Attack Guide’. This is an excellent trends based guide that gives you an overview of the 3 day meeting and allows you to start formulating your plan of attack.
I will be covering 12 of the top races from the 2012 Aintree Festival as part of my NTF National Hunt subscription service and this is your chance to hop on-board NTF for Aintree week.
Full details can be found here.
Top 50 Racing Tweeters
No not the Racing Post version, that was average at best, this is the OHRacing version. All you Twitter fans (if you are not a Twitter fan give it a try) take a look and see who OHRacing mark down as the #horseracing (see what I did there!) top 50 tweeters. There are some excellent Twitterers on the list as well as some bearded Scottish guy…..