Three to follow from the weekend: 26th, 27th & 28th January…
So… Cheltenham Festival Trials Day is now safely tucked away in the form book…
But did it provide us with any clues for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival itself?
Yeah… I reckon so…
SIR GINO clearly looks a huge player for the Triumph Hurdle after his demolition job in the JCB Triumph Trial… 11 winners of the Trial race have gone on to try and back up the win by running in the Triumph Hurdle next time out… recording a form line of… 34116221B03 (3/11, 4p)… since 2007 the form line improves to… 3411221 (3/7, 3p)… when you look at those horses that had 2+ Hurdle wins already on their CV… so certainly some positive stats there for the Nicky Henderson juvenile…
GINNY’S DESTINY continued on his steep upward curve by banging in his third course victory on the spin and he’ll be looking to follow in the footsteps of his stablemate STAGE STAR, who won the same race on his way to landing Festival glory in the spring last season… to put even more meat on that bone… the last FIVE winners of the Novice Handicap Chase that Ginny’s Destiny won recorded the following form line when rocking up at the Cheltenham Festival next time out… 12141… so as far as being a Trial race for the Cheltenham Festival itself, you have to say it’s right up there…
GA LAW was a fine winner of the Paddy Power Handicap Chase (put up by myself in the latest PodBlast episode 🥳) although I do wonder if he’s maybe stuck between two stalls now… I wouldn’t be convinced that he’s up to landing a Grade 1 contest and he was subsequently pumped up 6lbs to OR 156 for his win on Saturday… which is a tough mark to be trying to win the Plate Handicap Chase off (which I assume would be his target should they choose to swerve the Ryanair)…
The Cotswold Chase looked a muddling affair pre-race and it turned into a bit of a muddling affair during and after as well… winner CAPODANNO is only entered in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and that wouldn’t strike me as an obvious place for him to go… for all he’d be an interesting runner for sure… STAY AWAY FAY is possibly the one to take from the race… the novice will have learned plenty more from this race than he would have had he taken in a small field novice contest… he made a few scrappy errors on the way round but he never looked liked falling, and it’s all vital experience he can now call upon when heading back into novice company…
JONBON massively fluffed his lines in the re-arranged Clarence House Chase… he just never looked all that happy at any stage of the race and I do just wonder if he simply isn’t a fan of Cheltenham… I had expressed these concerns previously but had then put them on the back-burner when he came out and won the Shloer Chase back in November (at Cheltenham)… Saturday’s defeat, however, now gives him the following track splits…
1/4, 3p at Cheltenham compared to 11/11 at all other tracks
…and the facts are there for all to see… ALL 3 of his defeats have come when running at Cheltenham… 🤔
LOSSIEMOUTH… well… that was quite the return to the track! I suspect she could have won by double the distance had she been allowed to and it’s hard to see her being beaten if she sticks to the mare’s route… although the Mare’s Hurdle at Cheltenham is over 2m4f and she’s yet to go past 2m1f… looking at the stats for the Mare’s Hurdle at Cheltenham…
58 horses have lined up in the race having yet to win over 2m4f or further… and they returned the following stats…
1/58 | 1.75% S/R | -£24.66 BFLSP – W&P 4/58 | 7% S/R
51% below expectation
Only Whiteoak in 2008 has defied that stat…
Now LOSSIEMOUTH is clearly an exceptional horse… she could easily scoff at that stat… chew it up, spit it out and stick two fingers up at it as she coasts home by an eased down 5-lengths… but the fact the Win & Place strike-rate is also extremely low is perhaps a bit of a concern… and if you want something on your side to encourage you to go against Lossiemouth… then that stat may just be the ammo you are looking for…
The Cleeve Hurdle turned into quite a race… sadly it was yet more heartbreak for PAISLEY PARK this season, this time he was nutted on the line by National hero NOBLE YEATS… but in all honesty I think it just makes us all love Paisley Park even more! What a boy! To still be running to the level he is aged 12 and with 30-runs now in the bank… fair play old boy… fair bloody play! Go on the Paisley Park! 💪 We’d all love to see Paisley Park win the Stayers Hurdle in March… it probably won’t happen… but we’d all love to see it!! 🥰
And the exciting GIDLEIGH PARK closed the day out with a battling performance to land the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle… it looks a strong race on the figures front, with the first 4 home all banging in a figure above par for the level (the 5th horse recorded a figure bang on par) so this is likely to be form that will prove to be strong in the long-term… Gidleigh Park holds plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree so I’d personally like to see him go for the Albert Bartlett (3m Novice Hurdle) at the Cheltenham Festival, the likes of Wichita Lineman, Bobs Worth and At Fisher Cross all won this and then backed up the win by winning the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham in March… whatever he does for the remainder of the season, however, I think he’ll turn out to be one hell of a chaser… possibly the best Harry Fry has ever trained…
For the record… Gidleigh Park was also a qualifier on one of the Last Time Out Winner angles I provided back at the start of the season… that angle being…
H Fry | NH tracks in SE & SW England | Nov-March | 5yo-8yo | NO Headgear | SP 12/1 or less | WON LTO
77/173 | 45% S/R | +£106.26 – W&P 110/173 | 64% S/R
36% above exp
You can still get that guide on the following link…
>>>The 10 BEST NH Trainers with LTO Winners
…now that’s all out of the way it’s time for…
Three to follow from the weekend: 26th, 27th & 28th January…
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 BOWTOGREATNESS (B Pauling)
5th in a Class 1 Handicap Chase – 12.40 Cheltenham (Saturday 27th)Â
This is probably a much better effort than the bare form suggests as he was the best of those that were ridden mid-pack/out the back, with this race very much favouring those that were on or near the pace throughout…
Ben Pauling’s 8yo traveled and jumped really well for most of the race and smoothly latched on to the front group 4-out, before backing out of things 2 from home. Could be that he’s maybe just a shade too high in the ratings off OR 135 but he should go down a couple for this (he went down 2lbs to OR 133) and I don’t think he’d need to go down much to get competitive (he ran a close second in a C1 Handicap Chase at Aintree last spring off OR 132)…
He may also benefit from the application of some headgear or a TT (he’s never worn either) or even a wind-op (never had one)… as ultimately he is 0/8 over fences and there’s maybe just something little that needs a tweak to unlock him…
There was plenty to like about Saturday’s effort and he’s well worth keeping on the radar going forward from this…
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 CHARLIE UBERALLES (D Sayer)
3rd in Class 1 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase – 3.15 Doncaster (Saturday 27th)Â
A career best effort from the 8yo (on Proform Speed Figures) and he’s well worth keeping on the radar as he’s still unexposed over fences after only 5 chase starts…
He proved his PU in the Welsh National last time out was most likely down to the extremely testing ground and he showed up much better on this quicker surface…
Both his wins to date have come at Perth so he remains in my mind for something like the Perth Gold Cup in the summer, although I don’t think he needs to be going right-handed and there may well be a few targets for him prior to Perth in the summer (this run would suggest he has the ability to be more than ‘just’ a Perth horse)…
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 STORMINHOME (B Pauling)
2nd in Class 4 Novices’ Handicap Chase – 2.50 Doncaster (Sunday 28th)Â
This race reads well on the Proform Speed Figures, with the first 3 home all posting figures above par for the level…
First time CP’s seemed to do the trick here for this 7yo, as did the step back in trip, and he maybe just needed the outing after his 44-day break (his one win to date came off a break of 17-days)…
He’s probably flexible enough on the conditions front but the following may prove somewhere near his Prime Conditions…
Jan-Apr | <3m = 23213 (1/5, 4p)
…although again, I’m happy to remain relatively flexible…
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Other news…
I read a very interesting article over the weekend about the importance of Course/Distance form in National Hunt racing…
I love reading articles that are packed with data and that’s exactly what this CD article delivers…
Well worth 5-10 minutes of your time…
>>>The Importance of Course/Distance Form in NH Racing
***
Now… what should I choose for this week’s musical closer… 🤔🤔🤔
Something by JONBON Jovi? Nah…
Maybe ‘I Fought The (GA) LAW‘ by the Clash? It was a potential…
Possibly a track from (GINNY’S) Destiny’s Child? No thanks…
(SIR) GINO by Dexys Midnight Runners? I was tempted…
Instead, I thought I’d go down the PRINCE route, in honour of the legend that is PAISLEY PARK (Paisley Park being Prince’s private estate… which Paisley Park the horse is named after)…
So here’s a bit of LET’S GO CRAZY…
‘Dearly beloved, we have gathered here today… to celebrate the legend that is PAISLEY PARK!’Â
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can get all previous NTF Blog posts HERE>>>
Fascinating stat on the Mares Hurdle Ben. That makes her very opposable in my eyes.
Gala de Marceau shall we say was not ridden to best effect nor was she fit based on her run. Will be a fitter mare come March.
Hi DJ
Yes, if you want to take on Lossiemouth then there’s a good bit of stats ammo right there…
Gala DM would also fail the distance stat as well as the stats only look at UK/IRE runs… she has won over 2m3.5f in France… so a bit of creative licence would possibly put her in the stats picture…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
I was at Cheltenham on Saturday and was in two-minds regards Ga Law before I listened to the podcast. There were some good performances, but the ground looked dead, so my worry is that it’s taken some effort to win on. I thought Botox Has would have gone close but for that bad error, and I’ll give him another chance NTO.
Personally, I think Ga Law will go well if contesting the Plate h’cap as he does carry weight well over this C&D; he certainly would have gone close with this performance last March. The Cotswold Chase gave me a few clues for the Festival: The Real Whacker relishes 3+ miles at Cheltenham, and he may well have won had the 2nd last fence not been bypassed – he could run 3rd in the GC at very long odds (50/1). And TRW pays a huge compliment to Shishkin based on how far he was behind that one at Kempton.
Evening Ian
GA LAW was impressive, hopefully the pod made you make your mind up and get the money down on him 😀
Can see your thinking with The Real Whacker… could well be an interesting shout for filling a place in the Gold Cup, certainly kept on well after the last on Saturday… don’t have him as a full on Grade 1 player… but that doesn’t matter when it comes to filling the places… plenty of ‘non G1’ horses have managed to grab a place in the Gold Cup at big prices…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)