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The 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup – The Dosage Viewpoint

What do the last 15 Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have in common?

They all had between 8 and 22 points in total in their Dosage profile.

It’s a relatively narrow band to fit into but the past 15 winners do indeed fit into that band. In fact the last 20 winners fit into the same parameters. Norton’s Coin was the last winner (21 renewals ago) to have less than 8 points in his Dosage Profile and he was an unconsidered 100-1 outsider!

Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself –

Winner

DP

DPA

Total

DI

CD

Long Run

1-0-4-3-0

/

8

0.60

-0.13

Imperial Commander

3-2-4-2-1

PATB

12

1.40

0.33

Kauto Star

2-2-6-10-2

DQ

22

0.47

-0.36

Denman

0-1-1-6-2

/

10

0.18

-0.90

Kauto Star

2-2-6-10-2

DQ

22

0.47

-0.36

War of Attrition

0-1-3-8-4

/

16

0.19

-0.94

Kicking King

2-0-8-8-2

20+

20

0.43

-0.40

Best Mate

1-1-10-5-1

PATB

18

0.64

-0.22

Best Mate

1-1-10-5-1

PATB

18

0.64

-0.22

Best Mate

1-1-10-5-1

PATB

18

0.64

-0.22

Looks Like Trouble

1-4-5-2-0

/

12

1.67

0.33

See More Business

0-0-3-6-1

/

10

0.18

-0.80

Cool Dawn

2-2-8-0-0

/

12

2.00

0.50

Mr Mulligan

2-3-7-4-2

PATB

18

0.89

-0.06

Imperial Call

3-3-4-0-2

/

12

2.00

0.42

Master Oats

9-0-3-2-0

/

14

3.00

1.14

The fellow

0-0-4-4-2

/

10

0.25

-0.80

Jodami

2-0-6-8-6

20+

22

0.29

-0.73

Cool Ground

2-0-8-2-0

/

12

1.00

0.17

Garrison Savannah

1-0-9-0-4

/

14

0.65

-0.43

 

As most of you are probably aware Dosage is a tool I have used to ‘Narrow the Field’ for a number of years now and it’s clear to see from the above table that the Gold Cup offers a number of strong pointers based on this angle.

Although I have shown the past 20 winners in the table I do in fact only source back the past 15 renewals of any given race to get my figures.

Using the above here are the Dosage parameters I will be using to ‘Narrow the Field’ for this season’s renewal –

 

DP

15/15 had 8 points or more in their DP

14/15 had between 10 & 22 points in their DP

 

DI

15/15 had a DI of 2.00 or below

12/15 had a DI of 1.40 or below

11/15 had a DI of 0.89 or below

 

CD

15/15 had a CD of 0.50 or below

11/15 had a CD of -0.06 or below

10/15 had a CD of -0.13 or below

 

But how does this all translate to the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Well using the above trends I then split the field into 3 groups – probable, possible and unlikely winners (based on Dosage).

Here is how I see the split, based on current entries –

 

Probable winners (based on Dosage)

Horse

DP

DPA

TOT

DI

CD

KAUTO STAR

2-2-6-10-2

DQ

22

0.47

-0.36

BOSTONS ANGEL

1-0-12-7-2

20+

22

0.47

-0.41

WHAT A FRIEND

2-1-8-2-7

DQ

20

0.54

-0.55

CHINA ROCK

0-2-3-4-3

/

12

0.41

-0.67

JESSIES DREAM

0-1-3-4-2

/

10

0.33

-0.70

LONG RUN

1-0-4-3-0

/

8

0.60

-0.13

THE GIANT BOLSTER

3-0-10-5-2

20+

20

0.67

-0.15

Possible winners (based on Dosage)

Horse

DP

DPA

TOT

DI

CD

HEY BIG SPENDER

2-1-13-4-4

DQ

24

0.66

-0.29

MAGNANIMITY

3-0-10-9-2

20+

24

0.50

-0.29

WAYWARD PRINCE

2-1-15-3-5

DQ

26

0.68

-0.31

CARRUTHERS

2-1-11-6-0

20+

20

0.74

-0.05

WEIRD AL

5-1-6-8-2

DQ

22

0.69

-0.05

MIDNIGHT CHASE

3-1-7-4-1

PATB

16

0.88

0.06

QUEL ESPRIT

1-1-7-3-0

/

12

0.85

0.00

DP

DPA

TOT

DI

CD

TIME FOR RUPERT

4-2-6-0-6

/

18

1.00

-0.11

THE MIDNIGHT CLUB

3-2-6-0-1

/

12

2.00

0.50

KNOCKARA BEAU

3-5-8-1-1

PATB

18

2.00

0.44

HALLEY

3-1-14-0-0

/

18

1.57

0.39

TIDAL BAY

3-2-4-2-1

PATB

12

1.40

0.33

CAPTAIN CHRIS

4-1-7-4-0

/

16

1.13

0.31

BURTON PORT

1-4-15-0-0

20+

20

1.67

0.30

ALBERTAS RUN

5-1-6-6-0

/

18

1.00

0.28

THE MINACK

4-0-8-4-0

/

16

1.00

0.25

FINIANS RAINBOW

0-1-7-0-0

/

8

1.29

0.13

APT APPROACH

1-3-14-1-1

DQ

20

1.22

0.10

MEDERMIT

1-1-8-2-0

/

12

1.00

0.08

SYNCHRONISED

5-1-24-8-0

20+

38

0.90

0.08

JUNIOR

5-1-18-7-1

DQ

32

0.88

0.06

Unlikely winners (Based on Dosage)

DP

DPA

TOT

DI

CD

GRANDS CRUS

0-0-3-1-2

/

6

0.33

-0.83

MON MOME

1-1-2-0-0

/

4

3.00

0.75

QUITO DE LA ROQUE

0-0-3-3-0

/

6

0.33

-0.50

POQUELIN

5-0-5-0-0

/

10

3.00

1.00

DIAMOND HARRY

7-3-7-0-1

/

18

3.00

0.83

LITTLE JOSH

3-0-7-0-0

/

10

1.86

0.60

*The middle group (possible winners) can get clustered at times so as you can see I’ve created a split on this occasion with the ones above the split having stronger Dosage credentials than those below the split.

Important points to note here are that with regards to points totals I’d rather have a horse that had more than 22 points in its it total than less than 8 (in my opinion a stronger total is more desirable than a weak one).

The DPA angle (column 3) has also been featuring strongly in the profile of recent winners and is another consideration when making a your selection.

Looking at the the current entries for the 3m2f challenge it is perhaps the ‘Unlikely Winners’ zone that throws up the most interesting pointer with current 3rd favourite GRANDS CRUS sitting snugly in the red area due to his limited number of total points. A thrice raced novice (probably four chase starts by the time March comes around) with an inadequate Dosage rating for the challenge of the Cheltenham Gold Cup? At the moment I wouldn’t be keen to depart with any of my hard-earned cash at his current ante-post odds of 8-1.

DIAMOND HARRY is another in the red area and I’m still firmly of the opinion that he doesn’t quite stay the trip at Grade 1 level (I know he won the Hennessy but thanks to Denman he was able to cart around a measly 10 stone on his back that day!).

QUITO DE LA ROQUE is another who has to overcome the ‘less than 8 points’ trend.

The Green zone throws at us the 2 market leaders in LONG RUN & KAUTO STAR as well as last seasons RSA Chase 1st and 2nd BOSTONS ANGEL & JESSIES DREAM. The ‘enigma’ that is WHAT A FRIEND also pops his head into the equation.

As always these figures are yours to use and abuse as and how you see fit. I personally use the Dosage figures in conjunction with other forms of analysis to come to my own conclusions.

If some of you are still unfamiliar with the workings of all things Dosage then I am currently giving away a FREE copy of my ‘intro to Dosage’ guide to all subscribers to the FREE NTF updates list. Simply pop your name and email in the form at the top right of the site and you will be send a link where, amongst other guides, you will be able to download a copy of my Dosage guide.

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

8 responses to “The 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup – The Dosage Viewpoint”

  1. Great work Ben, many figures to digest, Happy to see my Captain Chris antepost hits 16 points, as you said it does through up questions and possibilities of fringe horses at the lower end of the market like What a Friend potentially running into a place at a big price. If we could get a without the top 2 market it could be really useful to unearth value each ways using the Dosage manifesto! Cheers

    • Not sure if I would be laying Grands Crus at the prices but I guess you also have in your favour the fact he may go down a different route; collect your ante-post lay without him even racing in the Gold Cup! The trends side of things could bolster his profile come March (depending on what he does between now and then) but on pure Dosage figures he may well struggle…

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