The countdown is now firmly on for
Christmas Cheltenham! 6 days to go…
Today in ‘NTF Festival Files’ we move on to a trainer who had the unenviable task of stepping into the illustrious shoes of his father in 2006; DAVID PIPE…
#Figures sourced from the excellent Proform database – Figures from the 2007 – 2012 Festivals
NTF Festival Files: David Pipe
The bare figures…
8/158 | 5% S/R | -£56.93 BFLSP – Win & Place 30/158 | 19% S/R
Plenty of darts thrown at the board from Pipe Jnr but not that many hitting the bullseye it has to be said. The 5% S/R isn’t great but in truth 8 Festival winners are not to be sniffed at.
Statistically speaking (and using the market as a guide) Pipe is under-performing, although only marginally.
But where can we find those winners, where are the areas that he has really been struggling with and can we zone in on any profitable angles?
Let’s start digging…
His winners are most likely to come from those returning after a 5 week+ break…
7 of his 8 festival winners were returning from a break of 35 days or more.
Clearly he is more than capable of getting his string bouncing fit at home without the need to send them to the track in the 5 weeks leading up to the Festival…
Pipe Festival runners DSLR 35 or more – 7/92 | 8% S/R | +£3.07 BFLSP – Win & Place 23/92 | 25% S/R
Pipe Festival runners DSLR 34 or less – 1/64 | 2% S/R | -£58.11 BFLSP – Win & Place 7/64 | 11% S/R
OK, you won’t get rich backing the 35+ day group but at least you won’t go poor (like you would backing the 35 or less group!). It still isn’t a great Strike-Rate but the fact the 35 day or more group encompasses 7 of his 8 recent festival winners is well worthy of keeping in the think tank.
His Front-Running horses shine whilst his Hold-Up runners seriously struggle…
It’s never easy to lead the pack along and stay there in the pressure cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival, however, the Pipe runners have done OK with that tactic in recent years…
Pipe Front-Runners at the Festival – 5/20 | 25% S/R | +£42.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/20 | 30% S/R
Safe to say that’s a healthy little sub angle, especially when we compare it to his runners that were Held-Up out the back in their races…
Pipe Hold-Up Runners at the Festival – 0/75 | 0% S/R | -£75.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/75 | 20% S/R
That’s a hell of a lot of runners to have drawn a blank from out the back, especially for a powerful yard such as Pipe. So far the money call has been to have them out-front or sitting close to the pace.
*His Close to Pace runners are 3/62 | 5% S/R
His Blinkered runners have a decent record…
I’m generally not a huge fan of headgear wearers in the high octane environment of the Festival. When Pipe comes into the equation, however, I am possibly willing to make an exception….
Pipe Blinker wearers at the Festival – 5/39 | 13% S/R | +£24.97 – Win & Place 12/39 | 31% S/R
As a group they do over-perform and it is certainly interesting that 5 of his 8 recent festival winners have been wearing blinkers, especially when it comes from only 25% of his runners.
The Pipe runners have had much more success in the Handicaps than the Non-Handicaps…
7 of his 8 festival winners have come in Handicap races.
The Handicaps are a minefield at the festival at the best of times but Pipe has managed to pick his way through them with aplomb in recent years…
Pipe runners in Festival Handicaps – 7/103 | 7% S/R | -£6.92 BFLSP – Win & Place 24/103 | 23% S/R
Pipe runners in Festival Non-Handicaps – 1/55 | 2% S/R | -£50.01 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/55 | 11% S/R
He has fired plenty darts at the Non-Handicap races in recent times but apart from OUR VIC he has managed to miss the target every time.
His runners are marginally over-performing in the handicaps whilst at the same time marginally under-performing in the Non-Handicaps.
David Pipe – Cheltenham Festival: The Money Shot!
Clearly not too easy to find a realistic looking ‘Money-Shot’ for Pipe Jnr but I think I’ve nailed one for us…
Taking all of my in-depth Proform searching into account I’ve come up with the following Pipe ‘Money Shot’…
Cheltenham Festival | David Pipe | Handicaps | DSLR 35 – 100 days | 21f or further
6/31 | 19% S/R | +£59.08 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/31 | 35% S/R
If you want to get adventurous with your Money-Shot (ooh-er missus!) then if you only concentrate on front-runners & close to pace runners the figures read 6/12 | 50% S/R | +£77.83 BFLSP…
*Figures for this article have been sourced from the brilliant Proform Professional Database.
Check out their website >> http://www.proformracing.com/
2013 NTF Cheltenham Festival Service – Doors now open!
The doors for my 2013 Cheltenham Festival service are now open!
To secure your place simply pop along to the following page >>> 2013 NTF Cheltenham Service
It’s almost here….