NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 2026 Royal Ascot Edition
Royal Ascot 2026 is now firmly in the formbook…
And I think it’s safe to say it was a meeting dominated in no small part by a significant track bias on the straight track…
That can make things tricky on the punting front… but when it comes to sourcing future BDH horses to profit from, it can be an absolute goldmine!
There were 18 races run on the straight track at Royal Ascot this year…
A whopping 14 were won by a horse breaking from the TOP-HALF of the draw!
The draw splits read as follows…
Drawn in the bottom-half = 4/213, 14p | -£162.83 – 61% below exp (E/W = -£257.73)
Drawn in the top-half = 14/205, 29p | +£76.17 – 6% above exp (E/W = +£22.79)
…the stats clearly highlighting what we all witnessed with our eyes; a clear track bias towards those drawn in the top-half (near side)…
The bias becomes even more evident when you split the draw into quarters…
Q4 = 10/98
Q3 = 4/107
Q2 = 0/112
Q1 = 4/101
TEN of the 18 winners breaking from Q4 (the highest quarter) of the draw…
What, if anything, can be done about that? Answers on a postcard (or in the comments sections!) please…
For now, however, I’m more interested in looking to profit from that track bias in the form of identifying Badly Drawn Horses to follow on coming starts…
Which is what I have already done…
NTF Members have already received that analysis… and below are two of the horses that appeared in the Royal Ascot edition of ‘BDH Notes’…
BADLY DRAWN HORSE(S)
(Royal Ascot Edition)
17th June – Ascot
5:00 – Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup Handicap over 1m (28 runners)
🔀 INDALO (R Varian)
Finished 3rd | Drawn in stall 8 (Bottom third of draw)
📝 A huge bias to those drawn in the top third of the draw here… 5 of the first 6 home were drawn in stalls 22+ and the near side bias was seriously pronounced in this handicap…
Comfortably won his side of the draw but the bottom third simply wasn’t the place to be in this and he had no chance against those drawn in the top third…
He’s a horse very much on an upward curve still (his last 4 runs have all been career best figures) and he’s very much a BDH to keep on the radar off the back of this run…
I have Prime Conditions for him as…
PC = 7f-1m | May-Dec = 321111 (4/6, 2p – all 4 career wins)
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18th June – Ascot
⭕ 4:50 – Class 2 Britannia Stakes Handicap over 1m (30 runners)
🔀 EXCLUSIVE CODE (A Watson)
Finished 13th | Drawn in stall 3 (Q1 draw)
📝 A straight track big field blast and yet another that was dominated by those drawn in the top half of the field… the first TWELVE home were ALL drawn in stalls 15+, with 7 of the first 9 home drawn in stalls 24 or higher… anything drawn in a single figure stall may well have just thrown their ticket away before the gates opened, with only TWO of the first 15 home breaking from a single figure stall…
Breaking from stall 3 and only being beaten 5.5L at the line is a performance that deserves a big mark up on his bare finishing position…
He came into this off the back of winning a maiden at Newbury in April, a race that has worked out extremely well since… the 2nd winning NTO, the 3rd winning both his next 2 starts, the 4th winning NTO and the 5th finishing 5th, 1st & 3rd on his 3 runs since… EXCLUSIVE CODE’s 4th in the C2 Maiden at Glorious Goodwood on his final start last term has also been working out strongly (the 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 5th have all won at least once since then) as has his debut 4th at Newbury last July… and it’s safe to say that this ‘down the field’ effort was nothing more than a result of a strong track bias that he was bang on the wrong side of…
The BDH horses posted here on the NTF blog are taken from the full Badly Drawn Horse Guides that NTF Members receive every week as part of their full NTF subscription… when any of the noted BDH Horses runs next I highlight them to members so they don’t miss out…
I source, fine-tune and highlight all the vital Badly Drawn Horses to follow each and every week… so NTF Members don’t have to!
Royal Ascot is generally an excellent meeting to source BDH’s and this year, due to the massive track bias at play, I’m confident there will be plenty of horses worth following on their next few starts, horses who’s chances were significantly compromised long before the gates opened and their race was under way…
>>Get the full Royal Ascot BDH Notes
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I use the many excellent tools available available on the HorseRaceBase site to source BDH horses…
They are currently offering a FREE 10-day trial to the software for readers of NTF…
Hit the following link for more details…
>>>Free 10-day trial on HorseRaceBase
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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