The first 2 domestic Classics are now logged firmly in the form book and the master that is Aidan O’Brien went back with both the 2000 & 1000 Guineas tucked resolutely under his arm.
There were a volume of eye-catchers over the weekend but here is my main NTF to follow horse from the the past couple of days –
PARISIAN PYRAMID (Kevin Ryan) – Sunday – 3.50 Newmarket – 4th in the 6f Class 2 Handicap
Once again this consistent 6yo ran a race full of promise without quite getting his head in front, however, 2 things struck me about this run – 1) this was a big run on ground that would not have been ideal and 2) he is now finally sitting on a mark that he can win from.
Lets look at these 2 areas in isolation –
1) Ground – This race was on Good to Soft ground. He has raced on ground that was good to soft or softer on 13 occasions, has yet to win on any of those runs and has only managed 2 3rd placed finishes at best. The best RPR figure he has recorded on such ground was 96 (incidentally that was yesterday, a solid sign he is near peak form). He has raced on ground that was Good or better on 31 occasions, his 3 career victories have come under such conditions and he has also run 2nd 4 times and 3rd 5 times on such ground. His best RPR figure on Good or better ground has been 104 (which he has recorded twice) and he has also run to an RPR of 102 twice on Good or better ground.
It is clear that he performs markedly better when he can hear his hooves rattle and as such yesterdays run makes me sit up and take notice.
2) OR – It has taken 18 runs but he is now at last back down to his previous winning mark (91). He has run off that mark on his last 2 starts, however, both runs he has not had his preferred ground (Soft at Ponerfract and Good to Soft at Newmarket yesterday).
Lets break his runs down into 3 OR bands –
Form when running off a mark of 95+ – 4-0-2-0-6-3-0-6-0-5-5-0-0
Form when running off a mark of 94, 93 or 92 – 8-7-0-2-0-0-0-4-3-4
Form when running off a mark of 91 or less – 4-5-5-1-5-0-3-2-3-0-7-5-4-6-1-3-2-1
As you can see he is capable of running well from the higher marks but ALL 3 career victories have come when running off a mark of 91 or less.
If we pull the 2 angles together and look at his runs from a mark of 91 or less and only on Good or better ground we get the following form figures –
Again ALL 3 career victories have come within this filter. He clearly has a ceiling where he performs at his best and has preferable underfoot conditions that he enjoys running on.
Interestingly there are a trio of tracks that he seems to save his best for –
Form figures at York – 4-3-5-2-0-2
Form figures at Goodwood – 0-0-3-1-1
Form figures at Ripon – 2-4-3
Although I don’t think this is as important as his OR and Ground factors he does seem to raise his game when he sets hoof on these tracks.
His run yesterday at Newmarket would not have been under ideal conditions but he did run a very solid race and all the signs are pointing towards a big run brewing. We just need this bloody ground to dry out!!
Parisian Pyramid ideal conditions – Good or better ground – An OR of 91 or less (may get away with just above this) – Potentially saves best for York, Goodwood or Ripon
The excellent ProForm software allows me to manipulate the form of any horse to find these trends and preferences very easily.
Ben – (NTF)