Result from Tuesday 17-01-12 – 3.10 Ayr | 1st – TOTAL REBELLION | sp 16/1
The horse’s previous rules form was a rather average 8-0-0-0 and yesterday he was making his handicap debut.
What was notable about him yesterday? He had been fitted with first time blinkers.
Those of you that were on my flat service during last summer will be well aware of my opinion on horses running when fitted with blinkers for the first time; generally they have an adverse effect and most of the time they do not produce the desired result.
However, you will also be aware that I’m not someone to take an angle and just blindly follow it. I like to look deeper and yesterdays win by TOTAL REBELLION had me firing up my PROFORM software for a bit of much loved ‘angle digging’.
The McCain ‘blinkered first time’ angle had been floating about in my head for some time before yesterday and although I’m not exactly sure what it was that made me finally take a closer look (possibly the rather tasty SP of yesterdays winner!) but when the stats popped up in front of me I’m certainly glad I did!
I wanted to take a look at the McCain horses that had run wearing first time blinkers since the start of 2009 (to my mind that’s when the stable really started to purr) and specifically I wanted to see the figures when stable jockey Jason Maguire was on-board these animals.
Here is what my *Proform digging returned –
Donald McCain 1st time blinker wearers – ridden by Jason Maguire (2009 – present)
10/24 | 42% S/R | +£22.79 BFLSP | ROI 95%
Obviously yesterdays healthily priced winner helps the LSP figures but the 42% S/R for these types of animals is nothing if not impressive.
To bolster this impressive stat let me add this – The last FIVE qualifiers on this ‘mini-angle’ have all won! In fact if we look only from the start of 2011 then we have 6 winners from 10 qualifiers.
Looking at these figures got me thinking – “Does a horse need a certain kind of jockey to give him confidence from the saddle when wearing blinkers for the first time?” and “Is Jason Maguire an expert at giving the horse that confidence?”.
I expanded the search to look at other McCain 1st time blinker wearers in the same time frame when NOT ridden by Jason Maguire. Here is what my finding told me –
26 runners | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£22.85 BFLSP
1 solitary winner from 26 rides when not ridden by Maguire compared to 10 winners from 24 rides when Maguire is on-board; quite a difference!
Either McCain is confident the blinkers will improve certain horses more than others and wants his main man on-board or Maguire simply has the golden touch.
It could of course be a mix of both…..
It goes without saying the sample size is small but nevertheless it’s something I’ll be keeping in mind in the coming months, if not years……
*My PROFORM database allows me to access this info within seconds. Thoroughly recommended by NTF 🙂