NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 3rd-9th May
Badly Drawn Horse is back!
I’m sure plenty of you remember those days?
The Badly Drawn Horse (BDH) methods have never really left how I analysis the flat game, although I’ve probably eased off from the BDH approach more than I should have since the glory days of the BDH site… no real reason for that, just happened… such is life…
But… I’m bringing it back with a vengeance and BDH Notes are now part of the full NTF Summer Service…
If you are not familiar with the BDH analysis methods… it’s relatively self-explanatory…
A horse runs well from a poor draw… I note it… then follow it in subsequent starts… and (hopefully) profit from them on at least one of those subsequent starts!
These types tend to be overlooked/value plays on following starts… indeed sometimes they are just plainly missed completely by the market… with people writing off the ‘poor’ last time out run as just that, a poor run, without looking at why the horse finished where it did… in the case of my BDH analysis it was the draw that was the main determining factor as to why the horse in question didn’t win…
I’ve always found it a great way to source future plays that many tend to miss…
Previously, when BDH was it’s own site, I looked only at those horses that ran well in big field straight track blasts, where often one side of the track has favoured the other… obviously it doesn’t have to just be a straight track blast where a horse has run well from a poor draw, and I’ll be looking at ALL races where I deem a horse to have run well from a poor/disadvantaged draw…
Some tracks are better than others for sourcing such horses… Chester last week was an excellent place to look for such horses, so you won’t be surprised that the majority of horses in this week’s notes ran a Chester last week… (You can pick up the full set of notes HERE>>>)
The full BDH guide for last week’s racing can be found in the NTF Members Area… as it will be each and every week of the NTF Summer Members Service…
Here’s one of those BDH horses for you to stick in your tracker…
BADLY DRAWN HORSE
📅 6th May – Chester
⭕ 2:05 – Class 2 Handicap over 7.5f (13 runners)
🏇 LIR SPECIALE (B Ellison)
Finished 3rd | Drawn in stall 8 (Q3 of draw)
Positive to be drawn in Q1 or Q2 over 7.5f at Chester – 17 of the last 19 winners of this particular Chester race were drawn in Q1 or Q2 of the draw
This run from the 7yo deserves to be marked up a good bit on the bare form. Six of the first seven home were drawn in Q1 or Q2 of the draw, the only runner to break that bottom half dominance was LIR SPECIALE… admittedly he was the next in line (being lowest drawn on the top-half) but he was only beaten a short-head for 2nd and the way he finished off his race suggested that he could well have battled out for the win given a better starting position. He’s handicapped to be winning at present (ran here off OR 83) and he’s worth looking out for on coming starts, especially if meeting with the following…
OR 90 or less | Handicaps | NOT Tapeta | NO TT = 5/14, 5p – all 5 handicap wins
The BDH horses posted here on the NTF blog are taken from the full BDH Guide that NTF Members receive every week as part of their subscription, when any of the noted BDH Horses runs next I will highlight to members so they don’t miss out…
>>See what the full NTF Members Service has to offer for you HERE
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. Have you picked up my FREE ‘Balding Bankers‘ Guide yet?
13 profitable angles to help you cash in on the Balding yard in 2026…
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