Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 12th, 13th & 14th September
Time for the next set of NTF Handicap Sleeper Notes from last weekend’s racing action…
Six more horses for you to enter in your notebooks or trackers, as we start the wet and wild slide into the final few weeks of the 2025 Flat season…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 12th, 13th & 14th September
📆 Friday 12th September
⭕ 2:45 Chester – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 7th – STANAGE
Stall 10 of 10 (adjusted for non-runners) as well as being held-up out the back were always going to be tricky for this 4yo… but if you take out the wide-margin, rapidly improving and in-form winner (MAYDAY MALONE), who also happened to have the prime draw in stall 1 and the perfect front-running/pace-pushing running style, then STANAGE wasn’t beaten all that far in 7th and he likely did as best as he was going to do (given his draw and running style)… he was dropped 2lb to OR 80 for this, which puts him 4lb below his last and highest winning mark of OR 84, and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 84 or less | 7f | race worth 25k or less = 711353 (2/6, 2p – both career wins)…
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⭕ 5:20 Doncaster – 6f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 3rd – IMPRESSOR
This was a big run from the 8yo on ground (Good) that was likely a shade on the quick side for him, with his record on ground quicker that Good to Soft now reading… 0/22, 5p… and 6 of his 7 career wins coming on Soft or Heavy… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 68, 3lbs below his highest winning mark and 1lbs below his last winning mark… and he’s worth keeping on the radar off the back of this run as he should get plenty of opportunities to tackle his favourite ground over the next few weeks… I’ve PC for him as… OR 71 or less | G/S or softer | fields of <15 | DSLR 28 or less = 15242513112317211 (7/17, 6p – all 7 career wins)…
🏇 4th – IRISH NECTAR
Another who likely found the ground a little too quick for him and he’s now 0/8, 0p on Good or quicker ground… he also made a scrappy start in this contest and was a little wayward at times under his first-time blinkers, so I’m inclined to mark this run up a little on the bare level of the form given those two factors (ground against him and scrappy start)… he’s in his prime months just now and is on a winnable mark at present… running here off OR 78, 2lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 80… and he worth looking out for under his PC of… OR 80 or less | G/S or softer | Sept to Oct = 111 (3/3 – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:25 Sandown – 1m2f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – TIPSY TIGER
William Stone’s 4yo was caught a little wide in the early to middle stages of this race but he travelled into this well as they headed into the final 2 furlongs, only finding the well-fancied Mark Prescott 3yo favourite, who was also getting a big weight-for-age allowance, too good for him in the closing stages… it was a hefty 7L+ back to the remainder of the field and this was an eye-catching run from the Postponed gelding under his prime conditions… OR 75 or less | Hcps in July-Oct | G/S or softer = 27121 (2/5, 2p – both career wins)… he’s worth looking out for in the coming weeks and connections should be able to find him a similar race to gun for… (he went up 3lbs to OR 76 for this run but he’s still worth considering off that mark)
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📆 Saturday 13th September
⭕ 2:25 Doncaster – 5.5f Class 2 Portland Handicap
🏇 12th – VENTURE CAPITAL
Q1 of the draw (low numbers) is often a tricky place to break from in the Portland and so it proved again this year, with the five drawn in Q1 finishing 11th, 12th, 14th, 17th & 19th… indeed the bottom third of the draw were at a disadvantage this year, with none of the seven breaking from that section of the draw getting any closer than 9th… VENTURE CAPITAL was drawn in stall 4 and he was never able to land any sort of blow from that starting position, for all his 4.4L 12th of 21 wasn’t a bad effort under the circumstances… he was back on his last and highest winning mark of OR 90 here (he went down 1lb to OR 89 for this run) and there’s been signs on recent starts that he’s on the verge of recording his 6th career victory sooner rather than later… he’s worth looking out for under his PC of… OR 90 or less | Straight track | S Gray riding = 0111113 (5/7, 1p – all 5 career wins)… his Sept-Nov form also reads well… 0431113 (3/7, 2p)… and he does tend to hold his form well in the Autumn/early winter months…
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📆 Sunday 14th September
⭕ 5:18 Doncaster – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – AL HUSSAR
This Bated Breath gelding is well-raced for a 3yo, this being the 17th start of his career already, and this handicap was his third run on the bounce out with his own age group. He’s entered these 3yo+ handicaps on a mark below his last and highest winning mark, running here off OR 77, 4lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 81, although races of this value (£11.5K to winner) are possibly just a shade out with prime for him, as he’s now 0/8, 0p in races worth £10.5K+, and a small lowering of sights would likely be the best move with him… I have his PC as… OR 81 or less | races worth £10K or less | Straight track = 72411813 (3/8, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
N/R = Non-Runner
AW = All-Weather
Und = Undulating
The Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a large portion of my own private notes, notes I dig into on a daily basis over the spring, summer and autumn months, looking for profitable plays that the wider betting market has overlooked…
They are also my primary starting point for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that NTF Members have exclusive access to via the full NTF Members package…
The horses covered in these free posts are highlighted to full NTF Members, to ensure they don’t miss any of them when they appear on track and meet with their Prime Conditions…
You can, of course, add them to your own tracker tool… something I would 100% advise that you do… and if you don’t yet use a tracker tool then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a trial…
👉🔗 GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
👉🔗 HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial for NTF readers)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
You can see all previous NTF Blog posts HERE>>>
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