A busy little post today and we start with something new for the NTF Blog as we have an extremely interesting guest post from RACING UK pundit Andy Richmond –
In-Running angles from Andy Richmond (Racing UK)- Kelso 2.05
The first race at Kelso (2.05) looks a very tricky handicap for the Borders track to get their new National Hunt season underway with, but with the betting landscape changing year on year do you have to find the winner to make money on a race? The answer is of course no. I believe that there are a couple of horses here which are of particular interest even though they may not win the race.
Now I realise that in-running betting is not for everyone but hopefully over the course of the winter courtesy of Ben’s Narrowing the Field website I can demonstrate some profitable angles around various races and horses that will be of benefit in the future. The software that I use is Proform Professional (www.proformprofessional.com) and all info is reproduced from that data source.
Back to the Kelso 2.05, the two vehicles that I have identified in this race are CLAUDE CARTER and KING’S CHORISTER. When looking at National Hunt races especially one of the first traits that I look for in horses is how they finish their races off, a trait I have christened conversion rate, basically trading at a low price and converting to wins. Now with the software I use you can look at any price traded to see how horses “convert”, in this case the price I have used is Evs or 2.0, but the software will accept and analyse any price that you want.
The two horses that I have mentioned already both have very poor conversion rates when trading below the 2.0 threshold, in fact neither has won a race, although it must be pointed out that KING’S CHORISTER has “won” once over hurdles but he was awarded that race on a technicality some months after the race was run. Using the software more fully you can drill down on each horse and look at their exact record when trading at or below the 2.0 threshold.
So we know that both horses look to have problems converting their chances at the end of races and that must spell a warning sign if you have backed them, but let’s take a look at one more piece of statistical evidence on these two horses.
Proform Professional on its IR module can also work out how many times a horses has traded a certain percentage below its Betfair SP (BSP).
Both the featured horses have a good record of trading well below their BSP, in this case 75% – the previous evidence allied to this piece, would lead you to the conclusion that can also be gained from visual confirmation, that these two horses travel well but don’t convert their chances at the business end of the race.
The race is likely to be run at a strong pace which will help both horses, but how do we use this information, well I would suggest a couple of angles into the race. Given the amount of times that each horse has traded below its BSP, both would make decent back-to-lay vehicles as their smooth travelling styles are bound to catch the eye of in-running players and on the data available backing either pre-race and laying at around 50% of the price you obtain would gain you a free bet on the horse or why not lay at 50% less for a slightly higher stake to produce a “green book”. That would be the conventional way to attack the race.
But the data does throw up other thoughts on the race, given the data presented and their records would you want to be backing either of these at short prices in the race? Therefore although it’s not for everyone a short priced lay may prove the way forward – are they horses to trust in a finish is my question. Alternatively, if either are trading short and they still have opposition around them backing the opposition may provide a profit.
There are a myriad of ways to use data such as this and I’m really only scratching the surface of the possibilities in the race and how the data can be used.
I’ll be looking at more races and individual horses in coming weeks and hopefully showing you how to interpret races, horses and how to use them as in-running opportunities.
If you have any questions I’ll be more than happy to answer them via Ben, or you can contact me on Twitter (@bickley14).
Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe Dosage Figures
I’ve not fired up Dosage figures on the Blog for quite some time now so I’m rectifying that today with a look at one of the major races on the international racing calender – The Group 1 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
For those of you that are unfamiliar with the concept Dosage then put simply – Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable speed or stamina capabilities of a horse based on the appearance of influential sires in its bloodline.
Now we have that cleared up lets take look at the Dosage stats from the previous 15 renewals of the Arc –
15/15 had 10 points or more in their Dosage Profile | 12/15 had 20 points or more in their Dosage Profile
13/15 had a DI of 2.14 or below
10/15 had a DI of 1.67 or below
1/15 had a DI below 0.82
14/15 CD of 0.69 or below
12/15 CD of 0.56 or below
1/15 CD below -0.10
Dosage Points Angle
12/15 fitted into 1 of the 3 DPA angles
DQ – 4 | 20+ – 8 | PATB – 0
But how does that all equate when we apply it to the 16 runners entered in this seasons renewal –
Dosage Green Zone (probable winners based on Dosage)
|ST NICHOLAS ABBEY||3-1-10-4-0||/||18||1.00||0.17||CP/HU|
Dosage Orange Zone (possible winners based on Dosage)
Dosage Red Zone (unlikely winners based on Dosage)
|SO YOU THINK||3-0-10-8-1||20+||22||0.57||-0.18||CP|
Quite a few runners sit snugly in the Green Zone, however, the red zone contains some very interesting runners indeed. Using Dosage as our gauge these 4 would be winning out of turn or at least going against the Dosage trends of the past 15 seasons.
This does not mean, of course, that these 4 CAN’T win or WON’T win but the Dosage figures are one angle they do have to overcome.
I would never suggest using Dosage as an analysis tool on its own but rather as an angle to sit alongside other forms of analysis; whatever your prefered method on form study and analysis may well be.
Bonne chance whoever you may plump for at Longchamp today.
FREE NTF 90+ Day October Trainer Guide
Those of you that are already on the FREE NTF web-site updates list will have already received your copy of the NTF 90+ day National Hunt October Trainers Guide. For those of you that have not yet signed up here is a little taster from the 17 page FREE guide –
Paul Nicholls 90+ day mini system
Class 3 races – Non-handicaps – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
17/26 | 65% S/R | +£19.30 BFLSP – W&P 21/26 | 81% S/R
A powerful little mini system there for all you system fans and I can see no real reason for this one to stop producing the results in the future (unless Rubt gets injured again!).
To grab the full copy of this guide that includes numerous angles and stats for you to utilise and impliment throughout October simply fill in your details in the sign-up form on the right hand side of the site. Not only will you receive access to the National Hunt trainer guide you will also be able to download 2 other exclusive NTF FREE guides.
NTF National Hunt 2011/12 Subscription Service
The National Hunt season proper is creeping ever closer which also means the NTF National Hunt subscription service will be soon be opening for its 2nd full season.
When the doors open there will only be limited spaces available.
If you have never seen an NTF race guide before then please click on the link below for an example from last season –
I like to think the vast majority of NTF followers are like myself – more captivated by information they can work with to produce their own selections (if they so wish) than they are in receiving selections from a tipster with no background information whatsoever on why X will win race X. The NTF subscription service is about precisely that – conveying serious racing punters with First-Class alternative angles and guides that are basically not available from other sources.
More information on the service is available on the following link –
P.S name the tune that I have modified for the title of the post……go on you know you want to!