The Cheltenham Festival 2017 may now be another notch on the racing bedpost and the 2017 flat season might have just rumbled itself into life after her winter hibernation, but the jumping game can’t be stopped, he keeps throwing punches, and at this stage of the season they are great big lumpy punches, with a mighty knockout blow waiting to be delivered at the death; the lung-bursting slog that is The Randox Health Grand National.
I’m delving deep into the three day festival on the full NTF service, covering 13 races over the three days, culminating in the National itself.
I’ve already dropped some stats advice in the NTF Members Area for full members, along with three trainer mini-angles that should point to some solid profits over the three days.
Here on the free blog I’m going to share a selection of those stats along with one of the three trainer mini-angles.
Let’s start with those stats…
Aintree Grand National Festival stats
Aintree Non-Handicap contests (since 2011)…
There have been 84 Non-Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
All 84 winners had between 2 & 7 starts in current season – those with 0-1 starts in season are 0/117 | those with 8+ starts in season are 0/35
Those with 0 or 1 previous career starts/starts in the UK are 0/60
Now looking at just the GRADE 1 races…
There have been 54 Grade 1 races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
53/54 finished in the top two on one of their last three starts
52/54 had their last start between 16-45 days previous
51/54 had previously run at G1 or G2 level
Now just the Aintree Handicap contests (since 2011)…
There have been 42 Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…
Those rated 129 or below are 1/100
39/42 ran at G3 level or below last time out (3/130 for those stepping back from a run at G1 or G2 level last time out)
*Full stats post available in the NTF Members Area
Aintree Trainer Mini-Angles
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Overall 6 year record – 23/147 | 16% S/R | +£46.22 LSP
5yo or 6yo | 3-6 runs last 12 months | Won 1 of last 5 | Top 3 LTO
14/28 | 50% S/R | +£51.94 LSP – W&P 20/28 | 71% S/R
3 qualifiers last year – 2nd (9/2) | 1st (14/1) | 1st (11/4)
Henderson is the winning-most trainer at recent Aintree Grand National meetings, by some way in all honesty, and amazingly you can actually back him blind and pull in a profit. I’m not one for throwing a load of blind darts, however, and prefer a more refined approach to tackling trainers so the mini-angle highlighted above suits my methods, and my betting approach, much better.
*Two more Aintree trainer angles (with a 59% and a 56% S/R) available in the NTF Members Area
*Majority of stats sourced from Proform Professional database
Aintree wouldn’t be a meeting I attack as thoroughly from a stats perspective as I do the Cheltenham Festival but there are still plenty of worthwhile points to note and have firmly on your radar. The trainer mini-angles are particularly interesting and with the absence of a robust Willie Mullins presence I’d be confident of them holding strong this year round.
NTF Aintree Grand National meeting subscription service
Doors are now open for the NTF Aintree service and you can hook onto the main service for £19.97, allowing you full access to all races covered over the three days, as well as the in-depth race notes I produce for members post-meeting.
The Races covered by myself at the 2017 Aintree Grand National Festival are…
Day 1: Grade 1 Aintree Bowl Chase – Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle – Grade 3 Red Rum Handicap Chase
Day 2: Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 Melling Chase – Grade 3 Topham Handicap Chase
Day 3: Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase – Listed Handicap Chase – Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle – Grade 3 GRAND NATIONAL Handicap Chase
The most recent example of my race analysis guides can be found below...
- NTF Midlands National Analysis
Full Trends Analysis of the 2017 Midlands National (Uttoxeter)