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2014 Cheltenham Festival: Glenfarclas Handicap Chase – Dosage & Trends Analysis (Updated)

How to solve a problem like the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase…

The NTF Way! (Updated Figures)

Can Mullins capture the X-Country Chase for the first time?

Just a quick post today from me and as promised my updated figures for the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase (4.00 Cheltenham).

You can get the original post here >> Glenfarclas X-Country Chase Analysis

Today I’m just going to provide you with my final figures, the pace map for the race and my own selections.

As you know this race isn’t yet part of my full NTF service but I am thinking of adding it to the roster in coming seasons.

Cross Country Chase final figures…

13/15     QUISCOVER FONTAINE

12/15     SIN PALO

——————————————-

11/15     BALTHAZAR KING

11/15     DUKE OF LUCCA

11/15     BIG SHU

11/15     ANY CURRENCY

11/15     SIZING AUSTRALIA

——————————————-

10/15     LOVE RORY

10/15     BISHOPSFURZE

9/15       A STRAY SHOT

8/15       UNCLE JUNIOR

8/15       STAR NEUVILLE

8/15       DIAMOND HARRY

7/15       HEY BIG SPENDER

7/15       SIRE COLLONGES

6/15       QUANTITATIVEEASING

.

Cross-Country Pace Map…

X-Country Chase Pace Map

>

NTF Selections…

Most Likely Winner

BIG SHU (P Maher) – He has clearly been brought back steadily for this specific assignment and this lightly raced sort has an excellent chance of landing his 2nd Festival X-Country event on the bounce. His X-Country form is rock solid, Carberry got to know him last time out at Punchestown and I can see him sitting tight and producing him with a late surge to steal this over the final 2 obstacles.

As well as last years winner I’m also looking to have some large priced cover on my side as well, so…

Alternative(s)

SIN PALO (W Mullins) – The outsider of the entire field and available at 66’s with your standard bookies and around 90’s on the exchanges! But he is second on my figures, will handle the drying ground, has pockets of decent form and Paul Townend has won on him before (in fact from 3 starts on him the jockey is 12P). I’ll happily throw a few sheckles at him in this.

QUISCOVER FONTAINE (E Bolger) – Trained by the X-Country master Mr Enda Bolger this 10yo would be on a handy enough mark if recapturing his best form (he did place in an Irish National off OR142, now on OR133). On the face of it it maybe looks like he needs Soft or Heavy ground but he has recorded RPR figures of 152 on Good to Soft & 150 on Good so I would rate him as adaptable with regards to ground. He is another I’m happy to throw a few pendors at.

Cheers and best of luck if you are getting involved in the race.

Ben (NTF)

 

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