Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 6th, 7th & 8th June
UK Classics three and four are now securely tucked away in the form book for 2025… and the master that is Aidan O’Brien signed himself up for both of them… taking his UK Classics total to a whopping 47!!
Wow… 👏👏👏
Next on the agenda for Aidan O’Brien will be the Royal Ascot 2025 extravaganza, which comes booming out of the gates full force next week… and O’Brien will be looking to add to his already mammoth total of 91 winners…
Should any of his Epsom squad rock up at Royal Ascot 2025 then they are likely worth having at least a closer look at…
🎩 AP O’Brien | Royal Ascot | SP 10/1 or less | Ran at Epsom Derby Festival LTO
🔢 (Since 2017) 7/15 | 47% S/R | +£21.46 – W&P 9/15 | 60% S/R
And, as you will see later on in this post, the Epsom to Ascot trick is not all that easy to pull off…
I’ll get to that shortly though… for now here’s the next set of ‘NTF Handicap Sleeper Notes’… covering the Friday, Saturday and Sunday racing that has just slid itself into the form book…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 6th, 7th & 8th June
🗓️ Friday 6th June
⭕ 5:10 Epsom – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 4th – PERSUASION
Epsom was favouring front-runners/close to pace runners on the Friday of this two day meeting, and I’d be marking this effort from David Barron’s 8yo up a few pounds on the bare form… not only was he racing from the less favourable midfield position, he also met a small pocket of congestion between the 2f & 1f pole and although it didn’t stop him winning the race, it stopped him fighting out for a top 3 finish (or at the very least stopped him finishing closer than he did)… he’s still handicapped to be winning at present off OR 89 (went down 1lb from OR 90 for this run), a mark 4lbs below his highest win mark of OR 93, and he did have his Prime Conditions to attack here… Turf 7f round a bend | OR 93 or less | C2 or less = 411332213911 (5/12, 5p – all 5 career wins)… so it was no major surprise to see him there or thereabouts as the race reached the business end of proceedings… a race under similar conditions would make him of interest… with maybe a small drop into a race worth <20k to winner (where all his wins have come) being absolutely ideal (although not a necessity)…
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⭕ 8:05 Bath – 1m2f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – GALACTIC GLOW
The ground dipping below Good to Firm (it was officially Good ground) was possibly just enough to blunt him in the final stages of this contest at his favourite hunting ground. He’s far from a regular winner, winning just 3 of his 67 career starts and placing on 17 others… the figures tightening up marginally if you only consider him on turf… 3/47, 14p… and then tightening up again if you only consider him at Bath… 3/17, 4p… he’s on a basement mark right now of OR 47, 3lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 50… but there has been enough life in his last 2 starts to suggest he be close to finally getting win number 4 on the board… he’s worth looking out for under his PC of… Bath 1m-1m2f | C6 | Good to Firm or quicker = 2111 (3/4, 1p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:25 Goodwood – 1m1f Class 5 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 6th – UNCLE DICK
A much better horse on a LH (or F8) track, with this effort taking his form on a RH track to 0/15, 5p and 0/18, 5p on a RH or Straight track… to be fair it’s maybe just ONE LH track he enjoys as ALL 7 of his turf wins have come at Brighton… he’s back on a winnable mark now, running here off OR 70 and being dropped 2lb for the effort to OR 68, 3lb below his last and highest win mark of OR 71, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 71 or less | LH Very Undulating Turf tracks | 1m-1m2f | C4 or less | DSLR 42 or less = 142152111115 (7/12, 2p – all 7 of his turf wins)… when you look only at Brighton the form line becomes… 1215211111 (7/10, 2p)…
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⭕ 7:44 Goodwood – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – MOSTAWAA
This was a solid run from the 9yo, who shaped here as if another win isn’t far away for him… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 76 and being dropped 1lb to OR 75 for the run, which is only 2lbs above his last winning mark and 9lbs below his highest winning mark… and he’s worth looking out for appearing in a similar race to the one he ran in here… OR 84 or less | C4 or less | 1m-1m1f | DSLR 30 or less = 7/20, 9p – all 7 career wins…
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🗓️ Saturday 7th June
⭕ 1:55 Musselburgh – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – VINCE LE PRINCE
An eye-catching effort from the 5yo from a tricky draw (stall 9 of 9) and he’s worth keeping on the radar now we’ve entered his prime months (June – Oct)… he was back on his last and highest winning mark of OR 73 here although he’s a horse that has hinted that he could be up to scoring from a little higher than this, providing he has conditions in his favour… those conditions being… 7f | race worth 7k or less | June-Oct | OR 73 or less = 5/13, 5p – all 5 career wins… again, it’s probably worth being a little flexible on the upper limits of his handicap ceiling (he was shuttled up 2lbs for this run to OR 75)…
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⭕ 4:55 Musselburgh – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 7th – MY HONEY B
Mick Easterby’s mare generally starts to hit her peak from June and she rocked up in this race off the very winnable mark of OR 55, a full 10lbs below her last and highest win mark of OR 65… the double figure field, however, will have been bang against her as she is now 0/13, 1p in fields of 10+ and it was no major surprise to see her finish a well-beaten 7th of 12… there will be better opportunities for her in the coming weeks and she’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 65 or less | C6 Hcps over >7f | June-Oct | Fields of 9 or less = 11113 (4/5, 1p – all 4 career wins)… she was dropped 2lbs to OR 53 for this effort…
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⭕ 5:45 Doncaster – 5f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 12th – VENTURA EXPRESS
The 8yo is now back down below his last and highest winning mark of OR 84 and he’s worth looking out for going on from this and dropping back in class… this was a Class 3 and this effort took his record at C2 & C3 level to 0/23, 5p and he struggles to make an impact at these higher levels… he was dropped a very handy 3lb to OR 79 for this run and I have PC for him as… (since with P Midgley) OR 84 or less | C4 or less | 5f Turf Hcps | G/S+ = 113211242121 (6/12, 5p – all 6 career wins)…
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🗓️ Sunday 8th June
⭕ 1:50 Goodwood – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 5th – WODAO
The 5yo is now 0 from 8, 1p for Jamie Osborne since moving from the Donnacha O’Brien yard last spring, but the upside of that is the fact he’s now starting to look like a very well-handicapped type… he ran here off OR 91, 9lbs below the mark he was on when he arrived at the Osborne yard and 16lbs below his peak rating of OR 107… this was his first run for 211-days and he’s always been a horse that needs his first run back off a break, with his record off breaks of 17+ days now reading 0/13, 1p… with his best form coming off breaks of 16 days or less… 0423112 (2/7, 3p)… improving to… 423112 (2/6, 3p)… when DSLR 16 or less in Apr-Oct… he should come on plenty for this outing and there was enough in some of his starts last season to suggest Jamie Osborne should be able to get wins into him before too long…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
Royal Ascot 2025
Yep… no time to sit back and chill during the flat season…
Espom Derby weekend is tucked away in the form book and now we are rocketing full force towards Royal Ascot 2025!
As always I’ll be covering the five-day meeting in full for NTF Members…
Like Epsom it’s a meeting that always plays out well on the Race Trends side of things, with many of the races being won by runners that fit some rock hard race profiles…
I’ll be opening the doors soon to the many of you that like to sign-up just for the five day meeting… and if you are already on the free NTF list you will get the details pinged to you near the end of this week…
If you are not yet on the FREE NTF list then get yourself signed up and ready to go by visiting THIS PAGE…
Now for those Epsom to Ascot stats I hinted at earlier on…
And you shouldn’t be fooled by how ‘easy’ Aidan O’Brien makes things look… running at the Epsom Derby meeting and then looking for a win at Royal Ascot is far from an easy achievement to pull off… especially in HANDICAP company…
Check the stats since 2014…
🎩 Royal Ascot Handicaps | ran at the Epsom Derby meeting LTO
🔢 1/132 | 0.75% S/R | -£126.95 – W&P 12/132 | 9% S/R
83% below expectation | E/W returns = -£185.88
ONE solitary winner… oof!
That winner was DASH OF SPICE in 2018… who rocked up at Ascot off the back of a thumping 6L victory at Epsom and started as 7/2 fav for his Ascot assignment…
If you look at those horses that DIDN’T win at Epsom LTO then the stats become… 0/119, 8p…
It’s simply a very tricky task to pull off (winning a Royal Ascot Handicap after running at the Espom Derby meeting LTO)…
Well worth keeping those stats in mind…
I’ll have more Royal Ascot 2025 stats coming your way via the FREE NTF email service… so if you are not already hooked up to that get your name down today on this page…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can find all previous Handicap Sleeper Notes posts by heading to the main blog menu HERE>>>
p.p.s remember and keep your eyes open for my Royal Ascot 2025 offer…
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