Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 30th and 31st May & 1st June
A busy week ahead on the racing front… with the Derby Festival at Epsom rumbling into view this weekend…
That’s a meeting I give full coverage to on the NTF Members Service, with the unique nature of Epsom meaning plenty of the races show up well year after year on the Race Trends side of things…
You can gain access to that Epsom analysis HERE… as well as all the other analysis I’ll be producing during the next few months…
Before that action kicks off, however, here are the latest set of the ‘Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 30th, 31st May & 1st June
🗓️ Friday 30th May
⭕ 2:45 Carlisle – 5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 3rd – SKI ANGEL
A decent enough effort from the 5yo mare as the front-running winner was not for catching here and the 2nd was a well-handicapped type coming in off the back of 2 wins… it was 2.5L+ back to the rest of the field and there was enough in this effort to suggest she should be able to pick off a race at some point in the coming weeks… she was running here off a joint career low mark of OR 46 (dropped 1lb to OR 45 for this run), which is 7lbs below her last and highest win mark of OR 53, but all her wins have come at the basement level (Class 6) so connections are used to having her operate off these sorts of marks at these lower levels… these were her Prime Conditions and she’s worth keeping on the radar for a similar opportunity… OR 53 or less | C6 Hcps over 5f | May-Sept | NO Headgear = 361113413 (4/9, 3p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:20 Carlisle – 7f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 7th – HOMER STOKES
This 7yo has only ever won on a Left-Handed track and this 7th of 8 took his record on straight & Right-Handed tracks to 0/14, 1p (compared to 7/22, 3p on a LH track)… as such this down the field effort was no surprise at all… he’s handicapped to be competitive right now, running here off OR 65, which is 1lb above his last winning mark and 9lbs below his highest winning mark (he went down 2lbs for this to OR 63) and he’d be of interest if rocking up under his Prime Conditions in the coming weeks… his PC being… OR 74 or less | 7f on a LH track | C5 or less (worth 5k or less) | May-Dec = 3115111511 (7/10, 1p – all 7 career wins)…
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⭕ 1:55 Chepstow – 1m4f Class 5 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 6th – CURTIZ
Not much got into this from out the back, with the 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th all either ‘tracking the leader’ or ‘leading’… CURTIZ was ‘slowly into stride’ and took a keen hold whilst sitting held-up for most of this contest, with very little in the way of any serious buttons being pressed before he faded in the final furlong… all of which is no major surprise as this 1m4f trip looks beyond his stamina limitations and he’s now 0/4,1p over 1m4f trips and 0/6, 1p over trips further than 1m2f… I suspect this was just a spin to keep him ticking along and at the same time a run to get him shuttled down a little further in the handicap… something that did indeed happen and he was dropped 1lb for this to OR 57, which puts him just 1lb above his last win mark of OR 56 and 13lbs below his high win mark of OR 70… he’s far from the easiest horse to win with, winning only once from 24 starts since the beginning of 2022, although in his defence he’s only had his Prime Conditions 8 times in those 24 starts, winning once and placing 3 times… those Prime Conditions being… 1m-1m2f Hcps on LH tracks | OR 70 or less | fields of 12 or less | Good or quicker or AW = 62458123111112 (6/14, 4p – all 6 career wins)… when he meets with those PC on Turf the form reads… 3111 (3/4, 1p)… his 3rd at Windsor at the start of May has been working out well since, with the winner going 121 (2/3, 1p) in his 3 subsequent starts and the second only going down by a head on his next start… if they can find a race for him under his Prime Conditions in the next few weeks/months then he’s on a mark he can definitely take advantage of and he’ll hopefully be scoring at juicy odds…
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🗓️ Saturday 31st May
⭕ 1:48 Haydock – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 10th – BOSH
This 16-runner straight track blast was dominated by the high stalls, with 4 of the first 5 home being drawn in stall 11 or higher and the first 3 home all coming from the quartet that raced in a breakaway group on the near side… BOSH broke from stall 9 and raced down the centre and whilst others were more inconvenienced than he was, he was still drawn lower than ideal (based on how the race played out)… it’s also worth noting that the Michael Dods yard is going through a ‘quiet spell’ at present, returning stats of 0/63 the last 30-days and 3/110 the last 60 days (75% below market expectation)… as such he’s seeing plenty of his string sliding down the weights and becoming well-handicapped, with a number, including BOSH, sitting on marks that we know they can win from… BOSH was dropped 2lbs to OR 85 for this, putting him 5lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 90, and he’s worth looking out for when getting his Prime Conditions AND the Dods running are starting to fire again (which shouldn’t be long as he’s had a few knocking on the door recently)… I have PC for BOSH as… OR 90 or less | C3 or less | Jan-July | 5f-6f = 01312112 (4/8, 3p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 2:40 York – 5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 9th – SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE
This 5yo had very little in his favour on the conditions front in this Class 2 Handicap… he’s now 0/14, 2p at C3 level+, 0/10, 1p in fields of 13+ and 0909 (0/4, 0p) on the York straight track… with that in mind, and the fact he was tight for room at around the furlong pole, this 4.4L 9th of 13 probably isn’t all that bad an effort… he ran here off OR 78 (and went down 2lbs to OR 76 for the run) and given he’s placed off marks as high as OR 82 & OR 84 then he should be up to landing a race when he gets his PC, which I have as… OR 78 or less | C4 or less | fields of 12 or less | DSLR 28 or less = 4/13, 7p – all 4 career wins…
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⭕ 5:00 York – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 7th – FEEL THE NEED
The first two home in this were on or near the sharp end throughout this race and it was hard for the closers to make an impact here… FEEL THE NEED was starting to make some inroads in the final couple of furlongs but he met a couple of pockets of trouble as he tried to thread his way through, and he probably did well to finish as close as he did (5L 7th of 21)… he was back on his last and highest winning mark of OR 76 here (and was dropped 2lbs to OR 74 for this run) and he’s worth keeping on the radar now we are firmly in his prime months… I have PC for him as… OR 76 or less | 7f-1m | C4 | May-Dec | DSLR 28 or less = 71121 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)…
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🗓️ Sunday 1st June
⭕ 4:00 Nottingham – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 6th – GRACE ANGEL
The mare was always likely to need her first run back off a break of 46-days as she is now 0/13, 2p off breaks of more than 28-days and she should strip plenty fitter for this outing… she’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 82, which is the same as her last winning mark and 4lbs below her highest winning mark… this was also her first run back off a wind-op, the second wind-op of her career… she was also beaten the first run back after her FIRST wind-op before coming out and winning on her next start, so could be that the trick works again this time round (wins on her second run off a wind-op) and she’s worth looking out for under her PC… OR 86 or less | C3 or less (worth <9k) | May-Nov | DSLR 28 or less = 1310211131322 (6/13, 5p – all 6 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
The Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a major portion of my own private notes for the flat game…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members have exclusive access to…
The horses covered in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss them when they rock up on the racetrack under their Prime Conditions…
Find out more on the following link…
>>>NTF Summer Service 2025
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can find all previous Handicap Sleeper Notes posts by heading to the main blog menu HERE>>>
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