Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 23rd & 24th May
Time to roll with the next set of NTF ‘Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
I’ve picked out six horses for the latest set of the notes… these horses, who all ran over the past weekend, have been noted by myself as they are on winnable handicap marks, based on their previous form, and all have the potential to perform well in the coming weeks & months… especially when meeting with their ‘Prime Conditions’…
So grab a quick cuppa and see which horses make the notes this week…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 23rd & 24th May
🗓️ Friday 23rd May
⭕ 2:50 Bath – 5.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 5th – SAVALAS
Handicapped to be winning at present off OR 47, which is his last winning mark and 7lbs below his high win mark since being trained by Adrian Wintle (went down 1lb to OR 46 for this effort)… but he has struggled to land a blow in races worth 4k+ since being with his current yard, with this run taking his record in such races to 0/9, 0p, and he likely needs to drop to an even lesser level than this (in terms of prize money)… I have PC for the 10yo as… 5.5f-6f Hcps worth 4k or less | OR 54 or less | DSLR 14 or less = 11151 (4/5 – all 4 career wins for Wintle)… and he could pop up somewhere despite his advancing years… his 2nd at Bath at the start of May suggested he still has the ability to be competitive at the correct level…
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⭕ 5:05 Bath – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 4th – WALEYFA
This was a solid enough effort from the 7yo mare as she doesn’t have the best of records on ‘Flat tracks’ such as Bath (now 0/8, 0p on tracks described as ‘Flat’) but she wasn’t beaten far in 4th and had the rest of the field beaten off by upwards of 6-lengths… she’s handicapped to be winning at present… running here off OR 59 and going down 1lb to OR 58 for the effort, which takes her below her highest winning mark and back to her last winning mark… and she’s worth looking out for when running under the following… OR 59 or less | C6 | March-Sept | 1m-1m0.5f on tracks with undulations (or the AW) = 121111 (5/6, 1p – all 5 career wins)…
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⭕ 4:25 Goodwood – 7f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 2nd – DIAMONDONTHEHILL
This was an eye-catching effort from the 7yo from what was a tricky drawn in stall 8 of 9… nothing has won this race from the top-quarter of the draw (horses drawn there are now 0/30, 7p from 14 renewals) and the top-quarter of the draw is in general a hard place to win from in 7f handicaps at Goodwood in fields of 9+ (a 3.75% S/R since 2010 – 52% below expectation)… with that in mind I’d be marking this effort up a little on the bare form and he is a horse worth keeping on the radar, he’s now back to his highest winning mark of OR 85 and should remain competitive if finding a similar race and his Prime Conditions are again met… his Prime Conditions being… 7f-1m1f | OR 85 or less | fields of 11 or less | Apr-Aug = 6/15, 3p – all 6 career wins…
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⭕ 8:47 Pontefract – 1m Class 5 Handicap
🏇 5th – MY HONEY B
The 5yo is on a very workable mark at present… running here off OR 57 and going down 2lbs to OR 55 off the back of the performance, 10lbs below her last and highest win mark of OR 65… but she’s a much better horse once we reach into June, with her form in Apr-May now reading 0/9, 0p… she’ll be nicely tuned up now for her prime months after 2 seasonal starts to blow the cobwebs away and she’s worth looking out for getting her PC of… C6 Hcps | OR 65 or less | 7.5f+ | June-Oct | DSLR 42 or less = 111133 (4/6, 2p – all 4 career wins)…
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🗓️ Saturday 24th May
⭕ 5:00 Beverley – 1m0.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – LIGHT UP OUR STARS
Only just failed to get up in the closing stages here, maybe just given a shade too much to do under hold-up tactics… this was still, however, a run on par with his best recent efforts and he’s a horse very much in form right now and one that remains on a winnable mark… running here off OR 55, which is 15lbs below his highest winning mark and only 3lbs above his last winning mark… he’s worth looking out for getting a similar opportunity under his PC… (Since with S Dixon) OR 70 or less | Hcps worth 7k or less | May-Oct | Fields of 10 or less | DSLR 28 or less = 219111 (4/6, 1p)…
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⭕ 5:20 Salisbury – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 6th – REDREDROBIN
1m+ trip stretch this one’s stamina limitations and she’s now 0/7, 1p over 1m+ trips, so not hard to explain away this down the field effort from the 8yo… she ran here off OR 71 and was put down 1lb for the run to OR 70, that puts her just 5lbs above her last win mark of OR 65 and 3lbs below her high win mark of OR 73… it’s a mark she can definitely be competitive off and she worth looking out for under her PC of… Turf Hcps in May-Aug | 5.5f-7f | OR 73 or less | DSLR 42 or less = 21581112111221 (8/14, 4p – all 8 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
The notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a large portion of my own private notes for the flat game.
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that I provide to full NTF members…
The horses highlighted in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members to ensure they don’t miss them when they race under Prime Conditions…
And if you want to see exactly how that is done, but don’t want to take the full plunge just yet, then you can road test the Full NTF Service in the live environment over the next 7-days by hooking up on the NTF Trial Week Ticket…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can find all previous Handicap Sleeper Notes posts by heading to the main blog menu HERE>>>
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