Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 16th, 17th & 18th May
Now the weekend’s racing is securely in the form-book, I’m once again eyeing up those unassuming contenders who quietly, to my ‘Handicap Sleeper’ eyes, made their mark. Those under-the-radar types that, for various reasons, caught my eye and look poised to surpass market expectations in the coming weeks…
Yep… it’s time for the next set of ‘Handicap Sleeper Notes‘… 📝💤🏇
So, racing fans, join me as I examine the form by analysing some of the top finishers as well as those from further down the field, and disclose the latest group of contenders who are handicapped to shine and wake from their sleepy slumber…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 16th, 17th & 18th May
🗓️ Friday 16th May
⭕ 1:55 Newbury – 1m Class 5 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 6th – BUY THE DIP
A better effort than it looks as this was a race that favoured those draw low… with the five that finished ahead of him drawn in stalls 1, 3, 8, 6 & 2, whilst BUY THE DIP broke from stall 12… it also favoured those ridden with more restraint than him, with the 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th all running ‘Held-up’ or ‘Midfield’ compared to his ‘Chasing The Leader’ position… he’s handicapped to be winning at present, running here off OR 60 and his highest and last winning mark being OR 62 (he was dropped 2lbs to OR 58 for this run)… a drop back from this C5 to a C6 would be a positive and he’s worth looking out for under his Prime Conditions… C6 Handicaps | OR 62 or less = 112412312 (4/9, 3p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:35 Hamilton – 5f Class 6 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 2nd – REFUGE
Likely just bumped into a better handicapped horse in the shape of the winner – Woohoo – but this was a solid effort from the 8yo, posting his best figure since winning at Beverley last summer and giving plenty suggestion he’s running into form, form that will hopefully see him landing the 8th victory of his career before too long… 6 of his 7 career wins have come during the May-July period, so he’s in his prime months right now, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… 5f Turf Hcps | OR 70 or less | DSLR 42 or less | May-July | fields of <13 = 6/14, 5p – 6 of 7 career wins…
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⭕ 8:25 Hamilton – 1m0.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 4th – JUMEIRA VISION
This 5yo is at his best from June onwards – he’s 0 from 10, 1p prior to June – so there was plenty to like about this 1.3L 4th of 11… he’s on a winnable mark at present, he ran here off OR 54 which is bang on his last winning mark and 8lbs below his highest winning mark, and he’s well worth keeping on the radar now and looking out for him running under his Prime Conditions of… C6 Hcps over 1m-1m1.5f | OR 62 or less | June-Dec | DSLR 21 or less | NOHG = 1771111 (5/7 – all 5 career wins)… this was his third run in just over a month so he’ll be at or near peak fitness now, and I’d likely consider him a play even if he appears again before we reach June…
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⭕ 9:00 Hamilton – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – RAIN CAP
Far from an easy horse to catch right… and this stretched his losing run to 17 on the bounce… although he has placed numerous times in that 17 and he often goes off at decent prices, so he can deliver E/W rewards without quite bringing home the full booty… he’s well-handicapped at present off OR 47, 3lbs below his last winning mark of OR 50 and 9lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 56, and this was a decent effort from the 8yo, as he had some better fancied rivals well held behind him come the line… I have PC for him as… Turf races over 6f-7f | OR 56 or less | fields of 11 or less | June-Sept | Wearing a visor = 6/16, 5p – 6 of 7 career wins… with the obvious caveat that he’s a tricky and frustrating type to catch on a fully going day…
🗓️ Saturday 17th May
⭕ 2:10 Thirsk – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – EQUITY LAW
The handicaps on the straight track at Thirsk this day were won by the low stalls (far side) and 3 of the first 4 home in this were drawn in stalls 2, 1 & 5… the outlier (in this race) was EQUITY LAW from the widest stall of all, stall 9. That itself catches the eye and suggests this effort is worth marking up a couple of pounds… this was the 4yo’s third start for Tim Easterby, having moved from the Andrew Balding yard over the summer, and he’s picked up a well-handicapped type (on the horse’s best form), running here off OR 74, 9lbs below his last and highest winning mark (he went up 1lb for this run to OR 75), and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 83 or less | Straight Turf tracks | fields of 11 or less | DSLR 42 or less = 211 (2/3, 1p – both career wins)… for all we can likely be a little flexible with his conditions now he’s at a new yard…
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⭕ 3:55 Thirsk – 1m Class 3 Handicap
🏇 2nd – BARLEY
A much improved effort on his two starts so far this season, which is possibly no surprise as both those runs came at Redcar and that’s a track that doesn’t bring out the best in him (he’s 0/5, 0p at Redcar)… he was possibly given a little too much to do in this contest, being held up in rear and having to switch to the outside to make his challenge… he was closing all the way to the line and is clearly on a mark he can do some damage from at the minute, running here off OR 78, 8lbs below his highest winning mark (he went up 1lb to OR 79 for this effort)… and he’s worth looking out for under his PC… Turf C3 or less | 1m-1m0.5f | fields of 10 or less | OR 86 or less | DSLR 28 or less = 25221411 (3/8, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:05 Thirsk – 1m Class 5 Handicap
🏇 4th – TELE RED
This was the 8yo’s first run for 204-days and he’s always a horse that needs his first run back off a break… with his form off breaks of >42-days now reading… 0/7, 2p… with that in mind this 4th of 12 was solid enough effort and he’ll strip plenty fitter for the outing… he’s handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 74, 2lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 76 (he went down 1lb to OR 73 for this run), and he’s shown all his winning form under the following PC… Turf Hcps | OR 76 or less | June-Oct | DSLR 42 or less = 5/19, 7p – all 5 career wins…
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⭕ 4:20 Newbury – 1m Class 2 Handicap
🏇 4th – CLASSIC
The lower stalls were favoured in this straight 1m, with the 3 ahead of the Hannon 5yo breaking from stalls 2, 5 & 8 whilst CLASSIC came out of stall 11 (of 12)… he did manage to get himself over to the low numbers as the race progressed, but he had to do it out the back of the field and as such met small pockets of resistance at various stages of the race… he generally peaks in the June, July & August period anyway, so chances are he wouldn’t have quite been at his peak for this run, and as things turned out this wasn’t a wasted run… he was dropped 1lb for the effort to OR 87, putting him 2lbs below his last and highest winning mark and 5lbs below his highest place mark of 92… he’s worth keeping on the radar now we are approaching his peak months and I have PC for him as… OR 92 or less | June-Aug | DSLR 28 or less = 521412 (2/6, 2p – both career wins)…
🗓️ Sunday 18th May
⭕ 2:10 Ripon – 5f Class 6 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 4th – GLORY HYDE
The high stall numbers were the call here and the 7 runners finished pretty much in highest to lowest draw order… the winner drawn in stall 7, followed home by stalls 6, 5, 3, 4, 2 & 1… GLORY HYDE was drawn in stall 3 and was the only one to ‘break rank’, he was also slightly squeezed for room in the closing stages and he’s worth marking up at least a little on the bare form… to date he’s also been at his best in June and later, so he should kick on again for this effort and he’s worth looking out for under the following… Turf Handicaps | June-Sept | OR 66 or less = 1721 (2/4, 1p – both career wins)… he ran here off OR 64 so he’s handicapped to be competitive right now…
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⭕ 4:40 Ripon – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – PANAMA CITY
With the exception of his run at Beverley in April, where he reared at the start and was on the back foot from the off, this 6yo has been in solid form so far this year and this was another effort that suggest a win isn’t far off for him… he’s handicapped to be winning right now off/around OR 53 and he’s worth looking out for getting a similar opportunity under his Prime Conditions… (since with I McInnes) C6 Hcps over 1m-1m0.5f | OR 61 or less | tracks with undulations (or AW) = 21314131 (4/8, 3p – all 4 hcp wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
The notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a significant portion of my own private notes for the flat game. They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that I provide to full NTF members…
I produce Stats Sheets for NTF Members roughly 4 or 5 times a week during the Summer and National Hunt seasons. The horses mentioned in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members to ensure they don’t miss them when they race under Prime Conditions…
You can, of course, add these horses to your own trackers to avoid missing out when they next hit the track…
Both HorseRaceBase (Free 7-day trial HERE) and GeeGeez Gold (£1 month trial HERE) offer excellent tracker tools and I thoroughly recommend both…
I take detailed notes on Handicap Sleepers on a daily basis during the Summer and Autumn months and they are a vital part of the NTF Members Stats Sheets, as well as being the bedrock for my own personal betting strategy…
And, if you are yet to pick up my FREE Handicap Sleepers Guide, then simply click the following link and get your own copy today…
>>>12 Handicap Sleepers for the Flat (FREE NTF Handicap Sleepers Guide)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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