Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 5th, 6th & 7th September
The latest set of ‘NTF Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes‘ are ready and waiting below for you…
But before I get on to them I just wanted to highlight some Aiden O’Brien stats I uncovered…
I went on a small data dive over the weekend, primarily because I was having a look at the St Leger for this weekend and noticed that Aiden O’Brien had the potential of having the race all to himself… well, pretty much all to himself… and at the 5-day decs stage that is exactly how it’s looking… with 4 of the 8 currently entered being trained by the master of Ballydoyle…
The St Leger wasn’t actually what I was data digging for… I was actually taking a look at some jockey stats for Aiden O’Brien as, obviously, his main man Ryan Moore is sidelined for the remainder of this season through injury and I’m not 100% convinced Christophe Soumillon, who O’Brien has called upon to ‘replace’ Moore, is the right man for the job…
Soumillon is clearly a top-class jockey, I’m not questioning that, but I’ve been disappointed by a number of his rides here in the UK this season and his stats, although relatively limited, don’t read all that great…
📊 Soumillon UK/Irish rides in 2025 = 0/23, 4p
Again, not a huge amount to go on but visually, to my eyes, he’s had plenty of his horses in poor positions throughout the race and when it’s come time to push the button at the business end he’s not been where he needs to be to get the best out of his mounts…
If you take his UK/Irish stats back to the start of 2023 you get the following…
📊 2/47, 6p – 51% below exp
…yes, one of those wins came in a Group 1 but overall they are a relatively poor set of stats… and, for whatever reason, Soumillon isn’t all that effective on these shores as he maybe once was… to me he seems an odd choice by Aiden O’Brien as a temporary Ryan Moore replacement…
And although this may seem like a fantastic opportunity for Soumillon, which it is, it’s not the best time of the year to be jumping on the Aiden O’Brien string… his runners do tend to dip off a little in the autumn months, especially those that ‘the lads’ haven’t backed…
Take a look at the stats for the Aiden O’Brien runners aged 3yo+ in the September to November period that don’t start in the first two in the betting…
📊 Aiden O’Brien | horses aged 3yo+ in Sept-Nov | NOT in the 1st 2 in the market (SP 7/2+)
(since 2020) 7/290 | 2% S/R | -£166.94 – W&P 51/290 | 18% S/R
E/W = -£290.50 | 69% below expectation
How many of those types will Soumillon be riding? Hard to say… but in the period covered above Ryan Moore was on board 44 of them… 0 (ZERO) won and only 6 placed…
I’ll be very interested to see how all this turns out… on these shores anyway… things may be different in France… although not if Sunday at Longchamp is anything to go on… 😐
Back to the here and now though… and to the latest ‘NTF Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 5th, 6th & 7th September
📆 Friday 5th September
⭕ 4:40 Ascot – 1m Class 2 Handicap
🏇 14th – TALIS EVOLVERE
Soft ground was no use for this 5yo and his 2 runs on ground slower than Good to Soft have now resulted in his joint-lowest (this run) and 2nd lowest RPR figures… as such it’s easy to put a line through this 17L 14th of 17 effort… it wasn’t, however, a wasted run as he was dropped 3lbs to OR 86, with puts him 9lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 95… if you look at his handicap runs from marks below OR 90 and remove the Soft & Heavy ground starts you see a form line of… 2121 (2/4, 2p)… and he’s plenty better than this effort, especially when he meets with his PC of… OR 95 or less | Sept-March | G/S or quicker (or AW) = 110212121 (5/9, 3p – all 5 career wins)…
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⭕ 1:32 Haydock – 1m6.5f Class 5 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 4th – ARCTIC FOX
The 9yo mare should come on for this first start for 48-days as she always needs a run to get back up to speed if she’s been off the track for more that 21-days, this performance taking her form off breaks of 22+ days to… 0/30, 4p… she’s handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 62, a whopping 22lbs below her peak winning mark of OR 84 (and was dropped 1lb to OR 61 for this run)… and although she probably isn’t up to those levels these days she’s more than capable of scoring from the lowly marks she’s currently operating off (as highlighted by her win at Carlisle in June off OR 59)… she’s worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 79 or less | 1m2f-1m6f Flat-AW Hcps | May-Sept | DSLR 21 or less = 7141111 (5/7 – 5 of her 6 career wins)… she’s one of those I’d be happy to throw a dart at when trading at lofty prices as she’s won at SP’s of 16/1 (X2) and 10/1…
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⭕ 3:15 Haydock – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – VINCE L’AMOUR
A flat track (now 0/10, 3p on flat tracks) and ground without at least a little bit of cut in it (now 0/14, 4p on Good or quicker ground) are not what this 4yo wants to be able to run to his best, and I’d be marking this run up a little on the bare level of form in the formbook… he’s currently on a mark he can definitely win from… running here off OR 70, 7lbs below his last and highest winning mark… and he’s worth looking out for appearing under his PC in coming weeks, his PC being… OR 77 or less | C3 or less Hcps | G/S or softer | tracks with undulations = 213113 (3/6, 3p – all 3 career wins)… his 3 wins to date have actually come on ‘officially’ Soft and Heavy ground, but the Proform ‘actual’ going descriptions have two of his wins on ‘Good to Soft’ and he doesn’t need to have it Soft or Heavy to show his best, Good to Soft is well withing range for him…
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⭕ 4:55 Haydock – 7f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 7th – QUEST FOR FUN
Tim Easterby’s 7yo has been having a solid season and came into this off the back of a win at York in July (dead-heated for 1st) and still on a winnable mark… running here off OR 77, 8lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 85… stall 11 of 11 (adjusted for the N/R) was a tricky starting position, however, and he has also found races worth >11K a stretch of his abilities (now 0/19, 4p in races worth >11K to the winner)… he was never really a threat in this contest but given the wide draw he was saddled with and the high value of the race, I’d view this 3.2L 7th favourably and the figure he posted firmly suggested he’s still in form and worth keeping on the radar… I have PC for him as… OR 85 or less | C3 or less Hcps (worth 11K or less) | Good or softer | June-Nov = 13211311 (5/8, 3p – all 5 career wins)… we can probably be a little flexible on the race value, providing the other conditions are ticked…
📆 Saturday 6th September
⭕ 4:40 Haydock – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – EMPIRESTATEOFMIND
John Quinn’s 7yo came into this off the back of a decent win at Ayr last month and the 3lb rise still had him on a mark he’s capable of winning from, running here off OR 87 which is his highest previous winning mark (he’s won off a mark of OR 87 twice in his career)… the 28-day break since that Ayr win wasn’t, however, ideal as he’s now 0/26, 8p off breaks of 21-days or more… and Haydock possibly isn’t really his ideal track either as he’s now 0/4, 1p at the Merseyside venue, beaten 2.8L+ on all 4 runs… with those two factors in mind I’d view this run more favourable than the bare finishing position suggests and he’s worth keeping on the radar for getting his PC to attack before the season is done with… OR 87 or less | Turf Hcps over 1m-1m0.5f | DSLR 20 or less = 1311112112 (7/10, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 4:35 Thirsk – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 6th – TIRIAC
The high stalls (near side) were the place to be on the straight track at Thirsk this day and that’s exactly how it played out in this race, with the first 3 home drawn in stalls 16 (of 16), 13 & 11… Paul Midgley’s 5yo had it all to do from stall 1 (far side) and he did well to finish as close as he did (3L) in 6th, even more so when you consider he was short of room in the closing stages… he’s the type that Midgley tends to excel with – a well raced 4yo-5yo handicapper picked up from another yard who he likes to get down the weights before banging in a few wins with (and then starting the sliding down the handicap process again) – and although it may be next season he has in mind for starting the winning sequence for this Sixties Icon gelding, he is extremely well-handicapped at present – racing here off OR 72 and dropped 1lb to OR 71 after this outing, putting him 7lbs below his last and highest winning mark – and he might well pick off something before the end of this season, most likely under the following Prime Conditions… OR 78 or less | 6f on Flat or Slightly Und tracks | G/S or softer | C4 or less = 6115341 (3/7, 1p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:35 Thirsk – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – SILENT MOVE
This race played to those up on the front end or just off the pace – the first 3 home had running styles of ‘made all’, ‘prominent’ & ‘tracked leaders’ – and Richard Fahey’s 4yo was disadvantaged by sitting ‘held up in rear’… he was the first home of those that sat out the back, however, and he’s worth marking up a little on that fact alone… the 15-runner field won’t have been ideal either as all 3 of his wins have come in fields of 9 or less and he’s now 0/6, 0p in fields of 10 or more… he is, however, on a winnable mark at present… running here off OR 79, 2lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 81… and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 81 or less | C4 or less | fields of 9 or less = 21121 (3/5, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
📆 Sunday 7th September
⭕ 3:00 York – 5.5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 6th – VANTHEMAN
Class 2 races have proven to be out of range for this 4yo so far in his career and so it proved again here, with this defeat taking his record at Class 2 level to 0/10, 0p… he is now, however, back on a mark he can win from… running here off OR 86, 2lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 87… and he’s worth looking out for when dropping in class and meeting with his PC of… OR 88 or less | C3 or less | Good or softer (or AW) = 21211 (3/5, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:30 York – 1m Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
🏇 9th – THEME PARK
This 5yo likes the strong pace a big field tends to generate, with his 3 wins to date coming in fields of 12+, but this race didn’t play out quite as hoped for him and those ridden held-up here struggled to land a blow… THEME PARK was comfortably the first home of those from out the back and although never looking dangerous at any stage, he was only beaten 2.8L at the line and it was 4L+ back to the remainder… he’s handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 74, 7lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 81, and he’s also currently in his prime months… he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 81 or less | 7f-1m | Good+ (or AW) | fields of 10+ | DSLR 30 or less | July-Sept = 9111 (3/4 – all 3 career wins)… we can maybe be a little flexible with a couple of those conditions given his current mark…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
N/R = Non-Runner
AW = All-Weather
Und = Undulating
The Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes posted on the free NTF blog form a massive portion of my own private notes, notes I dig into on a daily basis over the spring, summer and autumn months, looking for profitable plays that the wider betting market has failed to consider…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that NTF Members have exclusive access to via the full NTF Members package…
The horses covered in these free posts are highlighted to full NTF Members, to ensure they don’t miss any of them when they appear on track and meet with their Prime Conditions…
You can, of course, add them to your own tracker tool… something I would definitely advise that you do… and if you don’t yet use a tracker tool then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a spin…
👉🔗 GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
👉🔗 HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial for NTF readers)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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