Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 29th, 30th & 31st August
Time for the latest set of NTF ‘Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes’…
Fresh off the back of some decent winners for the notes over the past few days…
Including – SANDRET (100/30) & DARVEL (11/2) – both horses that got the job done last Friday and both who were highlighted to full NTF members via the NTF Stats Sheets…
I’ll be looking for more of the same from this week’s bunch…
Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes 29th, 30th & 31st August
📆 Friday 29th August
⭕ 2:45 Sandown – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 6th – FLETCHERS FLIGHT
This 5yo is on a winnable mark right now – running here off OR 66, 4lbs below his last and highest winning mark – and also in his Prime Months – all his wins have come between July & September – but he was marginally out on his best DSLR range here and, probably more pertinent, I’m not convinced he’s all that much a fan of Sandown… this was the second time he’s run at the track and he’s run poorly on both occasions… he came into this contest off the back of two eye-catching efforts, looking like he was on the verge of recording his 5th career victory sooner rather than later, and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… Turf 5f-6f | C5-C6 | July-Sept | OR 70 or less | DSLR 25 or less = 2411311 (4/7, 2p – all 4 career wins)…
📆 Saturday 30th August
⭕ 4:17 Beverley – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 3rd – YAZAMAN
A wide(ish) draw and held-up out the back generally isn’t an ideal mix over the Beverley 5f trip as it heightens the potential for traffic problems and relying on doors to open at the right time for you… it briefly looked like Paul Midgley’s 7yo would get a passage through the field as he started to build up a head of steam from out the back, but his momentum was momentarily halted by a door slamming shut in his face and that was enough to let the front two pull away from him whilst he restarted his forward thrust… given that piece of congestion he faced it’s not hard to mark this effort up a little on the bare form and there was more than enough in this effort to suggest he can take advantage of his well-handicapped profile before too long… he was running here off a mark of OR 59, 3lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 62, and it’s worth looking out for him appearing under his Prime Conditions of… OR 62 or less | C5 or less | <6f | DSLR <45 = 3721111324 (4/10, 4p – all 4 wins since with Midgley)…
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🏇 8th – FORTUNATE STAR
The quick ground is an easy excuse for this 5yo’s down the field effort as he’s now 0/6, 1p on Good to Firm and he’s much better on Good or softer (or the AW)… he’s well-handicapped at the minute, running here off OR 61, 2lbs below his highest winning mark (he went down 2lbs to OR 59 for this run), and is worth looking out for under the following PC… OR 63 | 5f Hcps | C5 or less | Good or softer (AW) | Apr-Dec | DSLR 28 or less = 5/14, 5p – all 5 career wins… and they should be able to find plenty of opportunities away from Good to Firm ground as we reach deeper into the autumn…
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⭕ 1:50 Sandown – 7f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 4th – GLENFINNAN
Soft ground isn’t what this 5yo wants – he’s now 0/3, 0p on Soft – and he ran a better race than I expected given the underfoot conditions… I suspect this noteworthy run was mainly down to the fact he was running here off a mark of OR 82, a chunky 11lbs below his last and highest winning mark of OR 93 (he went down another 1lb to OR 81 off the back of this run), and there was enough in this effort to suggest he’s worth keeping on the radar for when he gets some better ground to attack… I have his absolute Prime Conditions as… OR 93 or less | C3 or less | Good ground | DSLR 12-42 | fields of 11 or less = 1111 (4/4 – all 4 career wins)… although he possibly doesn’t need all conditions to be ticked and it’s probably worth being a little flexible with him, especially whilst he is so well handicapped…
📆 Sunday 31st August
⭕ 3:52 Brighton – 1m Class 5 Handicap
🏇 3rd – BLENHEIM STAR
William Knight’s 4yo is back on his last and highest winning mark of OR 64 and this was a solid effort at Class 5 level at his favourite track, with his Brighton form now reading 3/9, 2p… ideally they’ll drop him back to a Class 6 after this as he’s now 0/13, 2p at C5 level+ compared to 4/6, 2p at C6 level, and I have PC for him as… OR 64 or less | 1m C6 Hcps on Undulating or Very Undulating tracks = 31111 (4/5, 1p – all 4 career wins)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
S/R = Strike-Rate
The Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a huge portion of my own private notes, notes that I dig into on a daily basis over the spring, summer and autumn months, looking for profitable plays that the wider betting market has overlooked…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members have exclusive access to via the NTF Members Area and private Telegram Group…
The horses covered in these free posts are highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss any of them when they appear on the racetrack and meet with their Prime Conditions…
You can, of course, add them to your own tracker tool… something I would 100% advise that you do… and if you don’t yet use a tracker tool then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a spin…
🔗 HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial for NTF readers)
🔗 GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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