Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes: 11th & 12th July
The weekend racing comes at us thick and fast now we are in the height of summer 🥵😵💫
7 meetings last Friday followed by 8 meetings on Super (Saturated) Saturday…
And it’s pretty much the same again this weekend…
8 meetings scheduled for Friday and another 8 scheduled for Saturday…
Relentless! 😱
Definitely a time to carefully pick and choose the races you play in… certainly no need to be involved in them all… or even a quarter of them!!
On the plus side, the mountain of racing does give me plenty to tuck into when looking for Handicap Sleepers to keep an eye on for the future… and here’s the latest set of ‘Weekend Handicap Sleeper Notes‘ for your trackers…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 11th & 12th July
📆 Friday 11th July
⭕ 3:55 York – 1m2.5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 4th – GLISTENING NIGHTS
York isn’t the happiest of hunting grounds for this 4yo and this 4th of 9 took his record at the track to 0/8, 0p… he is now back below his last and highest winning mark of OR 73, running here off OR 70 and going down 1lb to OR 69 for the effort, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 73 or less | 1m1f-1m2f Hcps | Good or quicker ground = 1217113 (4/7, 2p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 5:20 Newmarket (July) – 5f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 2nd – CATCH CUNNINGHAM
A big run from the Kodiac gelding, who is now bang in his prime months of June to September and on a mark he can definitely be competitive off, running here off OR 69 which is mark 2lbs below his last winning mark of OR 71 and 10lbs below his highest winning mark of OR 79 (he went up 1lb to OR 70 for this run)… the 6yo couldn’t quite reel in the front-running winner here, but he still posted his best figure since running 2nd at Lingfield in May and gave a strong pointer that he looks ready to post the sixth win of his career sooner rather than later… he’s worth looking out for under his PC of… OR 80 or less | June-Sept | 5f | Good+ (or AW) | fields of 15 or less | DSLR 25 or less = 5/15, 5p – all 5 career wins…
🏇 3rd – ROCKING ENDS
Well worth marking this run up a little on the bare form… Tom Clover’s 5yo raced in a small breakaway group of two on the near side and probably didn’t quite get pulled into the race as much as he would have liked from his low draw… this Class 3 was probably just a little above his pay grade as well, as he’s now 0/14, 4p at C3 level+ compared to 5/16, 3p at C4 level or less, so he did well to finish as close as he did come the line… he was running off a mark 2lbs below his last and highest win mark of OR 82 here and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… C4 or less | OR 82 or less | May-Dec = 611128113 (5/9, 1p – all 5 career wins)… he wasn’t moved any from his OR 80 mark for this effort…
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⭕ 8:25 Chester – 5.5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – HARVANNA
Backed up her good run at York last time out with another solid effort here, only missing out on the win by a neck to one that was ridden a shade more forcefully out front… she was put up 2lbs to OR 86 for this effort, but that is still a mark she can be competitive off, and she’s worth looking out for under her PC of… OR 86 or less | June-July | <6f | DSLR 56 or less = 2111 (3/4, 1p – all 3 career wins)… at C4 & C5 level off breaks of 56-days or less she is… 2121 (2/4, 2p)… the defeats both coming by only a neck…
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📆 Saturday 12th July
⭕ 3:10 York – 1m2.5f Class 2 Handicap (John Smith’s Cup)
🏇 5th – AUSTRIAN THEORY
The 6yo is now 0/8, 0p at York and 0/8, 0p in fields of 15+ so he deserves plenty credit for finishing a 3L 5th of 18 in a race as competitive as this, especially with those two conditions (track & field size) firmly against him… he’s handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 86 and going down 1lb to OR 85 after reassessment, putting him 9lbs below his highest winning mark, and he’s worth keeping on the radar for turning up under the following PC… Turf Handicaps on tracks with undulations | OR 94 or less | fields of 14 or less | 1m0.5f-1m2f = 125411 (3/6, 1p – all 3 Hcp wins)…
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⭕ 4:20 Chester – 1m4f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – PERCY JONES
This 6yo has been banging on the door all three starts so far this season, with this 0.5L 2nd backing up his 0.75L 4th at Doncaster in June and his 1.5L 2nd at Newbury in May… he was put up 2lbs to OR 74 for this run but that still has him 6lbs below his high win mark of OR 80 and there’s been plenty indications that he’s ripe for landing himself in the winners enclosure sooner rather than later… I have PC for him as… OR 81 or less | C4 or less | 1m4f+ | Good+ (or AW) | DSLR 42 or less | June-Dec = 4/13, 6p – all 4 career wins… and connections should be able to find winnable opportunities for him in the coming weeks & months…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps = Handicaps
LTO = Last Time Out
CP’s = Cheek-Pieces
C4 or less = Class 4 or less
The Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes posted here on the free NTF blog form a major portion of my own private notes for the flat game…
They also form the basis for identifying ‘Prime Condition‘ and ‘Handicap Sleeper‘ horses for the NTF Stats Sheets that full NTF Members have exclusive access to…
The horses covered in these free posts will be highlighted to full NTF Members, via the NTF Stats Sheets, to ensure they don’t miss them when they rock up on the racetrack under their Prime Conditions…
You can also add them to your own tracker tool… if you don’t yet use one then I recommend you give one of the following two sites a try…
HorseRaceBase>>> (Free 7-day Trial)
GeeGeez>>> (£1 for 30-days offer)
Trainer/Jockey Combo…
Whilst digging through the weekend results for my Handicap Sleeper Notes, I also uncovered an extremely tasty set of stats for a trainer/jockey combo that had caught my eye quite a bit recently…
That combo being…
Andrew Balding & PJ McDonald
The latest success for the pair came in the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday, where they landed the valuable pot with 10/1 shot FOX LEGACY…
That took the overall stats for the Balding/McDonald combo to…
A Balding/PJ McDonald
37/170 | 22% S/R | +£54.76 BFLSP – W&P 78/170 | 46% S/R
14% above expectation
…and within those overall stats I found the following tighter angle…
A Balding/PJ McDonald | DSLR 21-56 | DIFFERENT Jockey riding LTO
24/78 | 31% S/R | +£98.62 BFLSP – W&P 40/78 | 51% S/R
52% above expectation
Safe to say I’ve now got that angle locked and loaded in HorseRaceBase and I’ll be keeping an eye open for future qualifiers…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can find all previous Handicap Sleeper Notes posts by heading to the main blog menu HERE>>>
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As always, thanks for the heads up Ben 👍🏻
Cheers Lester 👍
Ben (NTF)