Is Paul Nicholls finished?
Paul Nicholls…
He’s done… finished… gone at the game…
Move over old man, the new gang are taking over and leaving you in the gutter…
Even Harry Cobden has jumped the sinking ship and left you high and dry…
You get the picture… it’s the general theme/thinking of plenty when it comes to the current position of the Paul Nicholls yard…
I’ve probably said some of those things myself… or at least thought some of them…
Despite all the turmoil only two trainers managed to bag more winners than Paul Nicholls last season (Dan Skelton & Olly Murphy) and although there’s been a mass exodus of horses from his yard over the summer (it’s not just Cobden that jumped ship!) he’s still operating at a 24% S/R so far this season (1% above market expectation)… and to put that S/R into context, only three trainers have a higher strike-rate at this stage of the season (looking at trainers that have saddled 75 or more runners so far this season)… those three trainers being Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowdon & Sam England…
Nicholls is clearly not the force he once was… that’s clear for all to see… but there are still areas where he DOES hold an edge… which is something us punters can look to take advantage of…
The following Paul Nicholls ‘angles’ caught my eye…
Where Paul Nicholls still holds an edge…
All stats cover the period 2020 to present
🔎 Hurdle debutants that WON LTO
✅ UK Hurdle races
✅ Geldings on Hurdle debut
✅ Career Win & Place S/R 67%+
✅ WON LTO
🔢 17/27 | 63% S/R | +£19.96 BFLSP – W&P 24/27 | 89% S/R – 34% above exp
**
🔎 Chase debutants
✅ UK C2 – C5 Chases
✅ IRE & FR bred 5yo-7yo Geldings on Chase debut
✅ Yet to run at Grade 1 level
✅ SP 3/1 or shorter
🔢 22/36 | 61% S/R | +£25.88 BFLSP – W&P 25/36 | 69% S/R – 55% above exp
**
🔎 Travelling 275+ miles to track
✅ UK Class 2 or lower Chases & Hurdles
✅ NOT January (Flu-shot month!)
✅ Travelling 275+ miles to track
✅ 1+ run in current season
🔢 39/107 | 36% S/R | +£75.73 BFLSP – W&P 55/107 | 51% S/R – 42% above exp
**
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**
🔎 Last Time Out Winners at Newbury
✅ Newbury (all codes)
✅ Geldings
✅ SP <7/1
✅ WON LTO
🔢 21/40| 55% S/R | +£25.74 BFLSP – W&P 29/40 | 73% S/R – 43% above exp
**
🔎 Horses on their SECOND Handicap Hurdle start
✅ UK Handicap Hurdle races
✅ February to November
✅ Top-Rated or no more than 16lbs lower than top-rated
✅ 1 previous start in a Handicap Hurdle
🔢 36/119| 30% S/R | +£246.52 BFLSP – W&P 62/119 | 52% S/R – 49% above exp
**
🔎 Top 3 finish at FONTWELL Last Time Out
✅ Same or up 1 class level from last run
✅ SP 8/1 or less
✅ Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at FONTWELL LTO
🔢 21/31| 68% S/R | +£61.10 BFLSP – W&P 23/31 | 74% S/R – 93% above exp
**
🔎 Bumpers in October, November & December
✅ UK National Hunt Bumpers in Oct, Nov & Dec
✅ Distances of 2m+
✅ SP <5/1
🔢 43/94| 46% S/R | +£48.99 BFLSP – W&P 66/94 | 70% S/R – 35% above exp
The wider picture…
The point here isn’t that Paul Nicholls is about to return to complete dominance.
Those days may well be behind him… in fact I think it’s fair to say they are definitely behind him.
The point is that the market often swings too far.
A trainer goes through a difficult spell, loses a few headline horses, and suddenly the narrative becomes that he’s finished… he’s done… the big man is gone at the game…
Yet the numbers tell a more nuanced story.
Nicholls is still training plenty of winners. He’s still operating at a strike-rate most trainers would be thrilled with. And, perhaps most importantly from a punting perspective, there are still situations where his runners outperform market expectation.
That’s where the opportunity lies.
Not in blindly backing every Paul Nicholls runner that turns up.
But in understanding when and where his horses are most likely to succeed.
Because as punters, we’re not trying to prove whether a trainer is finished or flourishing… that’s a side narrative for trashing out over a beer or two with your mates down the pub…
On a purely punting side we’re simply trying to identify situations where the market has got things wrong.
And despite all the noise surrounding Ditcheat right now, the figures suggest there are still a few Nicholls-shaped opportunities hiding in plain sight… 🏇📊
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. if you missed my Prime Conditions post for the Dan Skelton trained LEAU DU SUD you can read it here>>>
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