NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 27th Sept – 3rd Oct
The final stretch of the 2026 flat season has begun…
Champions Day at Ascot is now firmly on the horizon…
Which means that the NTF Summer Service will soon be winding down for 2026, with Champions Day at Ascot being the final day of analysis for the service…
Then it’s a small break for myself… before cranking up a full run of the 2026/27 NTF National Hunt service…
Still time, however, to get some BDH action on the go… especially as the straight track at Ascot is still showing a significant bias towards one section of the draw…
This week’s featured BDH horse being a perfect example…
A horse whose recent form definitely does not tell the full story… with the draw continually conspiring against him… which it did once again at Ascot on Friday…
Let’s take a closer look… 👇
BADLY DRAWN HORSE
2nd October – Ascot
4:10 – Class 2 Handicap over 6f (18 runners)
INTENSE VISION (O Rix)
Finished 7th | Drawn in stall 6 (Q2 of draw)
Another Ascot big-field straight track race that highlighted the recent bias towards horses drawn high, indeed all 3 of the 16+ runner straight track handicaps run at this 2-day Ascot meeting were won by a horse drawn in Q4, meaning Q4 of the draw has won 26 of the 50 straight track Ascot 16+ runners Hcps on Good or quicker ground (since 2023)… under the same conditions Q1 has only managed to win 5 of the 50 races (10% of races – 64% below exp)… that bias has been stronger since the start of 2025… 18 of the 29 races (62% of races) have been won by Q4 and Q1 has won only TWICE (7% of races)… this handicap saw the first 2 home both breaking from Q4 of the draw and all the first 6 home breaking from the top-half (Q3 & Q4) of the draw… and as has been the case at Ascot recently, those drawn lower were up against it from the off…
This 3yo is now 0/6, 0p since moving from France to the Oli Rix yard in the Spring but, in his defence, he’s been campaigned at C2 level (X5) and C3 level (X1) and his 5 handicap runs have all come in large fields (all 5 in fields of 14+ and 4 of them in fields of 18+)… furthermore he’s been dealt a bad hand on the draw front in 4 of those 5 handicap starts, including this most recent run…
This run was, however, the smallest distance he’s been beaten (2.6L) and he was comfortably clear of the rest of the runners drawn in the bottom-half come the line… I suspect he would have finished even closer to those that finished in the first 3 had he been given a better draw to attack from…
He was 2 from 2 as a juvenile in France last season, showing he’s got what it takes to be winning races, and it’s not hard to think that his first UK win likely won’t be far off… he just needs the draw to be working for him instead of against him…
Where you can get the full set of Badly Drawn Horse notes…
The BDH horses featured here on the NTF Blog are taken directly from the full Badly Drawn Horse Guide that NTF Members receive every week as part of their subscription.
The difference is that members don’t just get the horses…
✅ They receive the full weekly guide
✅ They get all qualifying BDH horses highlighted
✅ They receive alerts when those horses run again (with my full thoughts on their chances)
✅ They never have to spend hours digging through the form looking for them
In short, I do the hard work so they don’t have to…
Prefer To Do The Research Yourself?
The two tools below are the ones I use most when building and refining my own angles:
👉 HorseRaceBase – FREE 10‑Day Trial for NTF Readers
Both are excellent resources if you enjoy finding your own hidden angles and tracking horses long‑term…
And Finally…
As we move deeper into autumn and the ground continues to open up, plenty of strong BDH opportunities begin to emerge.
The market tends to focus on recent form.
Smart punters focus on changing conditions, hidden upgrades and horses that are better than they looked last time out.
That’s exactly where the Badly Drawn Horse Notes can help.
And you can find recent BDH notes HERE>>>
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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