NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 20th – 26th Sept
The ground continues to soften… and the big field handicaps continue to roll…
The summer ground is beginning to disappear… well mostly… we still managed to have a Cambridgeshire run on Good to Firm ground on Saturday 🤨…
But in the main the going descriptions are changing from the quick summer ground… and a very different type of horse starts to emerge… Horses that looked ordinary a few weeks ago can suddenly become extremely dangerous when faced with softer conditions and a suitable race setup…
At the same time, plenty of autumn big-field handicaps are still to be run…
These big-field autumn contests create similar BDH opportunities that we find during much of the season… but with the added mix of softening ground… which gives the potential for some hefty track/draw biases. Draws become even more important. Pace becomes even more important. And, as regular readers of the Badly Drawn Horse Notes will know, identifying horses that performed much better than the bare result last time out can become a very profitable exercise.
This week’s featured BDH horse is a perfect example…
A horse whose recent form may not tell the full story… and one that could easily find itself overlooked in the betting in the coming weeks due to his current losing run of 13…
Let’s take a closer look… 👇
BADLY DRAWN HORSE
23rd September – Goodwood
5:00 – Class 4 Handicap over 6f (15 runners)
BROSAY (C Pike)
Finished 2nd | Drawn in stall 14 (Once N/Rs accounted for) (Q4 of draw)
This race was dominated by the low numbers, with 3 of the first 4 home breaking from stall 6 or lower and 5 of the first 6 home breaking from stall 8 or lower… the top half of the draw (Q3 & Q4) struggled to get involved in this (bar one horse) and that has been a bit of a theme over 6f at Goodwood this season in fields of 8+… there have been 14 such races in 2026 and 12 of them have been won by a horse drawn in Q1 or Q2… horses drawn in Q3 & Q4 have returned combined stats of… 2/94 | 2% S/R | -£67.00 – 71% below exp… so the run of the following horse in this contest certainly catches the eye…
This Charlie Pike trained 4yo was the only runner breaking from a double-figure stall that was able to pierce the dominance of the lower drawn runners, only going down by 0.5L at the line to a horse breaking from the complete opposite end of the draw (stall 1)… he was also hampered a touch when leaving the stalls, which only added to the tricky task he faced…
He did, however, knuckle down when asked to go on and try and win the race, pulling over 3L clear of the next runner home from a double figure draw and only finding the better drawn winner too good for him come the line…
BROSAY is well-handicapped at the minute off OR 82 and he’s worth looking out for under the following set of Prime Conditions…
OR <92 | C2 or lower (30k or less) | 5f-6f | Apr-Dec = 4/14, 5p – all 4 career wins
Want More Badly Drawn Horse Angles?
The BDH horses featured here on the NTF Blog are taken directly from the full Badly Drawn Horse Guide that NTF Members receive every week as part of their subscription.
The difference is that members don’t just get the horses…
✅ They receive the full weekly guide
✅ They get all qualifying BDH horses highlighted
✅ They receive alerts when those horses run again (with my full thoughts on their chances)
✅ They never have to spend hours digging through the form looking for them
In short, I do the hard work so they don’t have to…
Prefer To Do The Research Yourself?
The two tools below are the ones I use most when building and refining my own angles:
👉 HorseRaceBase – FREE 10‑Day Trial for NTF Readers
Both are excellent resources if you enjoy finding your own hidden angles and tracking horses long‑term…
And Finally…
As we move deeper into autumn and the ground starts to soften further, some of the best opportunities of the season begin to emerge.
The market tends to focus on recent form.
Smart punters focus on changing conditions, hidden upgrades and horses that are better than they looked last time out.
That’s exactly where the Badly Drawn Horse Notes can help.
Keep following the blog… there’s plenty more opportunities still to come…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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