NTF Badly Drawn Horse Notes: 13th – 19th Sept
The ground is changing… but the BDH opportunities remain the same…
One of the most interesting aspects of the season is the point where summer ground starts to disappear and a little bit of cut (or quite a bit of cut!!) begins to creep back into racecourses around the country.
We’re starting to see that now…
The Ayr Gold Cup Meeting produced some seriously testing conditions and the market inevitably begins to focus on horses with obvious ‘soft-ground form’. But as regular readers of the Badly Drawn Horse Notes know, some of the best opportunities aren’t always found by looking at what’s ‘obvious’….
They’re found by identifying horses whose recent run can be upgraded, whose draw worked against them, and whose true ability remains hidden from the wider betting public.
This week’s featured BDH horse falls into that category…
It’s a horse that looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time, under just the right conditions, and one that could easily be underestimated by the market if punters focus too heavily on the current losing streak the horse is on, rather than what the horse is capable of doing next…
Let’s take a closer look… 👇
BADLY DRAWN HORSE
19th September – Ayr
2:30 – Class 2 Ayr Silver Cup Handicap over 6f (23 runners)
UNCLE DON (R Cowell)
Finished 4th | Drawn in stall 23 (Once N/Rs accounted for) (Q4 of draw – Highest drawn horse)
The low numbers and those that raced in the far side group were in control of this race, with the first 3 home breaking from stalls 5, 1 & 4 and 4 of the first 5 home breaking from stalls 12 or lower (and racing on the far side)…
The Robert Cowell trained 4yo raced at the head of the near side runners, comfortably coming out best of his group come the line, putting a length between himself and the next best horse from those that raced on the near side of the track with him… the fact he was only just under a length off the winner – STATION X – on the far side highlights just how big a run this was from Oasis Dream gelding…
This was the second big effort he’s produced in a row from a poor draw, with his 5th of 16 at Windsor on his last start also coming against a draw bias…
He’s now had 6 starts for Robert Cowell, after moving from the Richard Fahey yard during the winter, and although he’s yet to win any of those 6 starts he has shown more than enough to suggest he’s on a mark (ran here off OR 87) his current yard should be able to get him winning from…
The BDH horses posted here on the NTF blog are taken from the full Badly Drawn Horse Guide that NTF Members receive every week as part of their full NTF subscription… when any of the noted BDH Horses runs next I highlight them to members so they don’t miss out…
I source, fine-tune and highlight ALL the vital Badly Drawn Horses to follow each and every week… so members don’t have to…
If you like to note these horses yourself I recommend using one of the following sites…
>>HorseRaceBase [FREE 10-day trial for NTF readers]
>>GeeGeez Gold [£1 30-day trial]
And keep following the blog… this next stretch of the season, where the ground begins to soften up, is where the smart punters can start to separate themselves from the rest… with a little bit of Badly Drawn Horse analysis thrown in to the mix…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
🆓👇🆓👇🆓
p.s. have you downloaded the FREE ‘Draw Jockeys’ Guide yet?
If not just stick your name and best email in the form below and get your copy today…
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